TBH it's going to be interesting.  On the one hand I think MS want to avoid an official RRP price cut and use bundles/deals instead, but on the other hand I can't see that being enough worldwide now to match PS3 price cut (and presumably some bundles, deals, etc. of its own)... so I'm really curious to see which way MS go.  I'm also really curious to see how Kinect performs over holidays as, at least so far, the hype and coverage for it is well down compared to last year.  There's still time to ramp up the advertising of course, but at this point nothing seems a sure thing either for PS3 or the 360 in terms of coming number one.

I've said it for a while.

Microsoft will rely on bundles/deals/giveaways this Year, maximise profits in the busy period and cut the price early/mid 2012, ready for Wii U.

Kinect alone wont work, not without new and innovative SW.

Best case scenario microsoft has enough american sales that it can compete to a tiebreaker with sony during the holidays which just means sony wins the year, and given the current lead that sony has in software/hardware for 2011 there is no way i see microsoft catching up. We remember what happened last black friday and christmas, and the ps3 is even cheaper with a better holiday lineup than last year.

it is interesting because you feel MS could ride out the holidays on sales and deals and be fine or its a no brainer and cut right as the holidays get going and let the carnage begin

someone should get some bets/thread going price cut or not

Do we really need to keep going over this? Do the math.

PS3 has a million unit lead for the year. By October that will probably be around 1.4-1.5 million.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 03rd Oct 2010 to 01st Jan 2011:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 03rd Oct 2010 to 01st Jan 2011:

360 only outsold PS3 by 500k during quarter 4 last year with momentum from Reach and the Kinect launch. So to take the crown for the year not only would PS3 have to be flat or down YOY but 360 would have to be exponentially up. So unless we see huge adjustments in 360's favor it's effectively impossible for 360 to catch back up, even with a price cut. Also keep in mind, last year PS3's Q4 Japan performance was utterly shite. It barely even beat its 2008 Japan performance when it was somewhat consistently getting outsold by the 360. With both the Ninokuni bundle and FFXIII-2 releasing it will almost certainly be hugely up there for the rest of the year.

some are really hoping ms does not cut price,i think they will this year we shall see.i can feel it in muh bones,

Well to start, MS have to cut price to be first, so everything I say is on that assumption.

I'm fed up of going over this though, it's absurd to think you think you have a better grasp on the situation than Microsoft themselves. If they had said this in passing in an interview it could be just PR babble, but no, they've said it, over and over and over and over again, in their E3 conferemce, in numerous interviews, in every NPD statement since June. They would never bang on about it that much without actually have a fuck loads more knowledge than we'll ever have.

I don't know what they have planned, but a price cut, advertising and holiday is more than enough to put them ahead for the holiday and the year. Kinect is going to be big again whether you like to admit it or not. Forget it's 'decline', this is a holiday product, and when the SW comes, and the bundle drops price, and the advertising goes crazy, the casuals will flock.

Time will tell.

Just because they say it will happen doesn't mean it actually will. Nintendo still thought they could sell 26 million Wii's back in 2009 as late as August.

Nintendo can't forecast for shit, I'm not taking them as an example, they've had to lower their projections about 6 Q's in a row now. This is MS, not only that but they havn't given a forecast like Nintendo, or a passing comment like that.

If they thought it would be a close call, I don't believe they would be going on like this, as they would know there is room for failure. So I believe they know they have it on lock, for whatever reason. To simply ignore the countless interviews with big sites specifically talking about this one subject, is foolish.

Couple things -

Wii has Dragon Quest Collection in September, Kirby / Just Dance 3 in October, and then retailers selling it $100-$135 in Nov-December to lift it up.

This idea that X360 will lift on giftcards / bundles looks a little bit silly to me. In the USA there have been giftcards for Kinect / Kinect bundles with X360 for 18 of the past 20 weeks at major US retailers advertised in their weekly circulars. In retrospect the reason Wii didnt lift to 3m in Dec last year in the USA was because similar deals existed in the lead up to Christmas. You can also make the case that Wii with two games at $200 is actually the same price as Wii with one game at $150, which is why the Wii lift died in one month - thats how long it took for Wii not to be sold with two games at $150. Typically people buy two new games with a console. Its a bit foolish to expect Wii not to lift dramatically at $100-$125 in Nov - Dec if its still bundled with a game as Zelda / Rayman / Mario & Sonic / Kirby / Mario Party etc arrive.

More generally, major software should help 3DS more than anything this Christmas. Kinect games are largely sequels. Same for Wii. Same for PS3. Same for core X360 games. Same for DS.

I really don't see Wii / X360 / PS3 performing much differently from last year in the USA over the next few months. Difference is PS3 will be up in Europe and Japan, with Wii down in both regions, DS down globally, 3DS busting out like crazy, and PSP slowly dying in Japan with Vita. PS3 might actually not be too different in Japan either - an average person there would probably rather have HD visuals in their Monster Hunter on the go - you can kind of make the case that Vita is pretty dangerous to PS3 in a somewhat similar way to how 3DS is dangerous to Wii in Japan.