Couple things -
Wii has Dragon Quest Collection in September, Kirby / Just Dance 3 in October, and then retailers selling it $100-$135 in Nov-December to lift it up.
This idea that X360 will lift on giftcards / bundles looks a little bit silly to me. In the USA there have been giftcards for Kinect / Kinect bundles with X360 for 18 of the past 20 weeks at major US retailers advertised in their weekly circulars. In retrospect the reason Wii didnt lift to 3m in Dec last year in the USA was because similar deals existed in the lead up to Christmas. You can also make the case that Wii with two games at $200 is actually the same price as Wii with one game at $150, which is why the Wii lift died in one month - thats how long it took for Wii not to be sold with two games at $150. Typically people buy two new games with a console. Its a bit foolish to expect Wii not to lift dramatically at $100-$125 in Nov - Dec if its still bundled with a game as Zelda / Rayman / Mario & Sonic / Kirby / Mario Party etc arrive.
More generally, major software should help 3DS more than anything this Christmas. Kinect games are largely sequels. Same for Wii. Same for PS3. Same for core X360 games. Same for DS.
I really don't see Wii / X360 / PS3 performing much differently from last year in the USA over the next few months. Difference is PS3 will be up in Europe and Japan, with Wii down in both regions, DS down globally, 3DS busting out like crazy, and PSP slowly dying in Japan with Vita. PS3 might actually not be too different in Japan either - an average person there would probably rather have HD visuals in their Monster Hunter on the go - you can kind of make the case that Vita is pretty dangerous to PS3 in a somewhat similar way to how 3DS is dangerous to Wii in Japan.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
