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Forums - Movies & TV - The Box-Office Thread.

 

Can Disney beat Universal's record 2015 domestic gross - $2.445 billion?

It will fall short of tha... 4 13.33%
 
Finding Dory, Doctor Stra... 20 66.67%
 
It's going to be very cl... 6 20.00%
 
Total:30
Chris Hu on 13 May 2012
axumblade said:
Chris Hu said:
axumblade said:

My point was never that it was going to be a massive hit or even compete with The Avengers. I think The Avengers is going to remain #1 until MIB3. That was in reference to it stealing the little thunder Hunger Games currently has.

The Hunger Games still has more then a little thunder left.  Its been in the top 5 for eight consecutive weeks and will stay in the top 10 for at least three more and stay in theaters for at least six more weeks proabably a lot longer then that The Artist is still in theaters even though its been out on Blu-Ray/DVD for months already.  Unless The Hunger Games gets pulled from all domestic theaters in the next two weeks it not making over $400 million is pretty much impossible.

The thing is that despite it being in the top 5 (or top 10 even) that doesn't guarantee anything for an early summer schedule. It averaged about 7.5 million last week overall. Last week it dropped 45% through the week. If manages to keep closer to the 21% drop then the 45% from the previous, it does have a chance. But the problem is that despite the fact that Hunger Games is still in the top 3, it has been in there for a long time.

The Avengers will not lose that many screens. Generally during the second weekend, most movies don't lose that many screens (so Dark Shadows won't lose too much, at least not until the following week). Dark Shadows started out in 3775 theaters. Avengers is currently in 4349 theaters. Then we have The Dictator coming out Wednesday (in 2800 theaters), What To Expect When You're Expecting (in 3000 theaters) and Battleship (3750 theaters). Most theaters aren't going to completely lose The Hunger Games, but instead of it being in 2-3 theaters, it will likely drop down to 1.

In the grand scheme of things, a movie that can make 7 million dollars a week will be removed for a movie that will make 7 million a day...

I'm hoping it does hit the 400 milion point, in fact, I was researching it to see if it would because I wanted to say good news for it but overall, it's kinda looking bleak now.

Its not looking bleak The Hunger Games doesn't even have a release date for Blu-Ray/DVD yet so that is a minium of at least six more weeks at the domestic box office is without direct competion from Blu-Ray/DVD sales then you will have at least four more weeks when it co exists with the Blu-Ray/DVD and dollar theaters.  Also at this point its ahead of the two movies ahead of it in the domestic box office and they both made over $400 million.  Also by this time next week it will need less then $8 million to pass $400 million and it can make that easily over the next eight weeks after that.  The Lorax made over ten million dollars domestically the last five weeks so its pretty nutty to think that The Hunger Games can't make $13.5 million dollars over the next six weeks and The Lorax was never in as many theaters as The Hunger Games.



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Chris Hu on 13 May 2012

The two movies directly above The Hunger Games at the domestic box office are Tranformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Spider-Man.  I was wrong about The Artist it doesn't get released on Blu-Ray and DVD until June 26.  But most movies do co exist on Blu-Ray/DVD and budget theaters for a couple of weeks.  Also looking at future Blu-Ray/DVD releases the earliest I can see The Hunger Games being released is late July.  Even The Lorax will make a couple more millions at the domestic box office its listed on Amazon but doesn't have a release date yet.  I don't think The Hunger Games will stay in theater as long as The Artist which is currently is in its 25th week but I'm sure it will stay longer then Safe House which is currently in its 14th week so the Hunger game will have at least eight more weeks to make a little more then $13 million which is easily doable that's less then $2 million a week.



Chris Hu on 14 May 2012
axumblade said:
Chris Hu said:

The two movies directly above The Hunger Games at the domestic box office are Tranformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Spider-Man.  I was wrong about The Artist it doesn't get released on Blu-Ray and DVD until June 26.  But most movies do co exist on Blu-Ray/DVD and budget theaters for a couple of weeks.  Also looking at future Blu-Ray/DVD releases the earliest I can see The Hunger Games being released is late July.  Even The Lorax will make a couple more millions at the domestic box office its listed on Amazon but doesn't have a release date yet.  I don't think The Hunger Games will stay in theater as long as The Artist which is currently is in its 25th week but I'm sure it will stay longer then Safe House which is currently in its 14th week so the Hunger game will have at least eight more weeks to make a little more then $13 million which is easily doable that's less then $2 million a week.

Actually, you're wrong...you're going just by weekend grosses....which are nice but don't really show the whole perspective....

The Hunger Games  (7 weeks = $382,501,686)

Spider-Man (7 weeks = $385,826,381)

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (7 weeks = $395,154,082)

The acutals just came in The Hunger Games now needs less then $13 million to pass $400 million total its totally doable will do at least anothe $5 million by this time next week and the remaining $8 million are easily doable the next four weeks after that.



Chris Hu on 14 May 2012

"The Hunger Games" needs to drop below 1,500 theaters before it needs to worry about making less then $2 million dollars a week.  Right now its in 2,531 its going to take a while before it drops over 1,000 more.



Mordred11 on 15 May 2012

$40-50M at most for Battleship.Will open below The Avengers for sure.



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man-bear-pig on 15 May 2012

$70m OW for Battleship me thinks



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

oldschoolfool on 15 May 2012
spurgeonryan said:
What does everyone think about Battleship? I think 60 + million at least. It would be like a plane wreck if Taylor had two mediocre performers in a row.

Needs about 150 million or more from the US just to make this movie break even world wide. The people who green lit this movie for 200 million are idiots, unless this makes over 150 million in the states and over 250 million over seas. Both are unlikely.


battleship is worth a rental,but doesn't look like it's worth going to the cinema's for.



Chris Hu on 15 May 2012
spurgeonryan said:
What does everyone think about Battleship? I think 60 + million at least. It would be like a plane wreck if Taylor had two mediocre performers in a row.

Needs about 150 million or more from the US just to make this movie break even world wide. The people who green lit this movie for 200 million are idiots, unless this makes over 150 million in the states and over 250 million over seas. Both are unlikely.

Did Battleship really cost $200 million dollars so far I haven't seen anything about the movies budget.  Over $250 overseas is doable its already did $215 so far.  I don't know how it will do domestically.  Seeing that Dark Shadow only did a little over $29 million if it does anything close to $60 million would be great.



Chris Hu on 15 May 2012
spurgeonryan said:
It has already been released in Iceland. Have you seen it?

@ chris

Yes, 200 million not including marketing.


So the actual bugdet of the movie was around $150-60 then since they marketed quiet a bit.  John Carter isn't playing anymore in my area either but the only time I would watch it if it ends up on Netflix and I have time to kill.



Chris Hu on 15 May 2012
spurgeonryan said:
No that is just for the movie. Add another 100 million plus for marketing. Unless the source just did not mention marketing. Try wikipedia.


Wikipedia says $200 million dollar budget now it didn't have any budget info a couple of days ago.  With that budget plus marketing its going to be hard for them to turn a profit just from the box office.  The movie could make a lot of money post box office though it seem like the kind of movie a lot of people going to pick up once it hits Blu-Ray/DVD or watch on demand.