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Forums - Sales Discussion - John Lucas Style Super Smash Bros. Brawl Predictions!

Oyvoyvoyv on 06 January 2008

Twilight Princess for Wii has yet to do a week under 30k, and it has been out for 58 weeks or something. Soon it will fall under, but TP isn't as big as SSBB, since it didn't have the same install base, and it was considered to become the only good game on a "flopping" console. SSBB is one of the greatest on the best selling console. Not going under 30k might be possible.

SSSBM however, only lasted 13 weeks before going under 30k, or does this graph only have Japan?

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+Melee+-+GC&reg2=All&game2=&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100&weekly=1



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

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Mummelmann on 06 January 2008

Is it just me, or are there a tad too many "Ode to the great JL" threads lately? If you can't ripple the pond on your own, maybe you should refrain from trying. No offense, but this is getting ludicrous.



Mnementh on 06 January 2008
Xeo_842 said:

I've come up with a few John Lucas style Super Smash Bros. Brawl Predictions.

Super Smash Bros. Brawl will probably be the Wii's best game ever! It has massive hype and it's the game quite a few Wii owners bought or will buy a Wii. That site, Smash Bros. Dojo, has been hyping the game every day for a long time. Also I'm sure almost every Wii owner knows about this game. This game will sell a ton out of the gate and have massive legs that will last forever! Right before the game releases I bet Nintendo will have ads everywhere and hype this game even more as if this game didn't have enough hype already. People will also be talking about it a lot and word will spread fast. This game will not only apeal to the core gamers but also the casual gamers and non-gamers alike. I will even put the predictions in my signature.  Well, on with the predictions.

Predictions!

1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl will launch with a total of 2.5 million worldwide. In North America, it will launch with 1.2 million. In Japan, it will launch with 600k. In Others, it will launch with 700k. That's quite a lot isn't it. It will also have mega long legs that will last th entire generation. The sales of this game will never drop below 30k worldwide!

2. Super Smash Bros. Brawl will outsell the original Super Smash Bros. worldwide by August 2008. It will also outsell Super Smash Bros. Melee by December 31, 2008. That's right! I expect Brawl to outsell both it predecessors in one year. Crazy? Yes! Possible? Maybe!

3. Super Smash Bros. Brawl's lifetime sales will be.....20 million+! It will become the Wii's 4th best selling game behind Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Wii play. I would say number one, but those three games will probably never stop selling aswell. #3 is possible though.

 

And there you have it. Feel free to discuss.

A special thanks to John Lucas for inspiration! Keep doin what your doin!


I think that all sounds very doable, except for your claim #1. Starting sales could be that high, but I doubt it. SSBB will have incredible legs and possibly reach the 20M figure and easily outsells it's predecessors in 2008 (the Wii userbase will be bigger than the GC-userbase by this point). But launch-week numbers may not be that high.



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Xeo_842 on 19 January 2008

Well the game has gone gold in Japan and they've put out some nice ads so 600k doesn't seem that hard any more!



Official member of the Sonic Support Squad!

Bet with OriGin: Within 1 year Super Smash Bros. Brawl will be ahead of Mario Kart Wii (when aligning the one whole year from each region). 2 week ban from Vgchartz for the loser. Edit: Darn! Looks like OriGin will win.

tokilamockingbrd on 19 January 2008

I actually have been think along the same lines as your predictions... if the reviews keep as high as Fam did, combined with crazy hype... this game could be nutz... especially with it broader appeal, than say HALO... plus it WILL sell 2 million + in Japan... which is already giving it a 1.9 headstart.

LTD
Japan 3.5 million
NA 10 million
Oth 6.5 million

20 total- both NA and others could end up being higher than that.... I think 3.5 is the max for Japan.



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

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Zeo_842 on 02 February 2008

By looking at the first day sales it looks like my Japan prediction will not only have been right but also surpassed by quite a lot. I thought 600k was really pushing it. I hope it gets a million in its first week and has Wii Sports style legs.



I am really Xeo_842 but I can no longer log in under that name.

Bet with OriGin: Within 1 year Super Smash Bros. Brawl will be ahead of Mario Kart Wii (when aligning the one whole year from each region). 2 week ban from VGChartz for the loser. 

wiiforever on 02 February 2008

I actually think many of those predictions are quite possible. Go SSBB!!!!!



tabsina on 02 February 2008

so far so good (with the japan release week.. unless there is a serious drop off in the last two days of thw week :P )



bigjon on 02 February 2008

well so far you are 1 for 3... I am almost sure you will be correct in US(maybe even on launch day) think you are a bit high for Others... look at Melee's numbers. Others was the only territory it failed to sell 1 million. BUT I do beleive your total will be correct because Japan and NA will make up for a lower others.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Joeron on 02 February 2008
elgefe02 said:
Smash will sell like this first week:

1.2 million US
350 K Japan
400 K Others

And will have tremendous legs

 Japan has been confirmed to have 500k 1st day sales and 2nd shipments have been shipped already during the 1st week

 

Here's my launch prediction:

1.4 million US

950k Japan

750k others

 

Lifetime it will be the 4th best selling game on the Wii after Wii Sports, Wii Play and Wii Fit.