I don't share John's taste for extravagant predictions, but it's probably safe to safe Brawl, Galaxy, and Mario Kart all have a good chance of hitting 10M sold world wide.

Galaxy is heading there at a nice pace. Should get there sometime during next year.

Brawl is looking even stronger, and will probably get there first. Launching with 800k in Japan is extremely impressive, especially since it should have much better legs than most big games there.

Nintendo has intentionally given us very little information about Mario Kart, but the previous part sold even better than the Super Mario main series game of its generation, or Melee. It could do the same this gen, but I can't help being skeptical of how it could possibly be as awesome as Brawl.

You should ask yourself, was MK:DD as awsome as SSBM to you? because if not then you just proved your skepticism is unfounded.... after all if MK:DD can outsell the likes of Melee (on quite a hardcore Nintendoite platform as well) then what will MK Wii do to Brawl? (on the casuals dream)

I should add That I don't think Brawl will be the fourth best selling Wii game, It might be (depending on Wii Fit) but I think all three Wii__ (Sports is obviously no1 anyway) as well as Kart will outsell it. There may be other currently unnanounced games to creep up too, but I doubt it.
Brawl is imho definately a 10 million seller, 20mil is possible but I think it may end up around 15 million (with MK being  2-3 million more)

I've never cared about Mario Kart at all. I've tried several games in the franchise, but never liked any of them. Racing just isn't for me. Of course I'm not stupid, and realise games I don't like can still be excellent.

Comparing Brawl and Mario Kart Wii is very difficult, because we have a very good idea of how awesome the former is, but know virtually nothing about the latter. It's possible the team working on Kart is as talented as the one with Brawl, but I doubt it. Double Dash might've sold more than Melee, but I'd say there are way more people still playing the latter. Surely the user base will take this into account when deciding which to purchase.

I'm not sure what my point is, and I gotta go somewhere in a few minutes. My final statement is that Mario Kart Wii might be as awesome as Brawl and easily outsell it, but it also might not. I don't think it'll be so, but then again I love Smash Bros. and couldn't care less for Mario Kart. =P

 those arn't crazy at all.Both will easily become true!

John Lucas may be slightly off with his inital numbers, but his long-term predictions are amazingly accurate. Few people have been able to predict the success of the Wii like he has, and that make people angry for some reason.

Anyway...

Japan 840k (yes, its already up.. so that isn't a prediction)

America 1224k

Others 967k

>You should ask yourself, was MK:DD as awsome as SSBM to you? because if not then you just proved your skepticism is unfounded.... after all if MK:DD can outsell the likes of Melee (on quite a hardcore Nintendoite platform as well) then what will MK Wii do to Brawl? (on the casuals dream)

Quite. MK has "Mario" in the title so casuals will buy it. "Super Smash Bros Brawl" means nothing to most of them so it will have to rely far more on advertising and word of mouth to get them interested.

^it's true that mario has a wide appeal but it's not exactly casual. IMO, I think this will be the first time a smash game outsold a mario kart game because of the immense hype of SSBB

I didn't say Mario is casual, I said the Mario name appeals to casuals because they recognise it. Two very different things.

Well, NA sales will be about 21.3 million by the time Brawl releases, so I'd say about 3 million first week and 22 LT (to quote Naruto: Believe it!)

@Parokki.
Well ok if you haven't played MK:DD then I will explain... It is generally considered to be a rather "meh" version of Mario Kart (though I like it) yet it still outsold Melee which is considered amazing... So unless MK Wii is exceptionally "meh", it will outsell SSB:B.