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Forums - Sales Discussion - First week predictions for MGS4 in Japan, NA and Others.

skeezer on 02 January 2008

1.5 million total in its 1st week



^_^

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coolestguyever on 02 January 2008

Japan - 250,000
USA - 200,000
Others - 350,000

Grand Total - 800,000



coolestguyever on 02 January 2008
HappySqurriel said:

I think that it is way too early to predict MGS4's sales at the moment ...

The game could get delayed for over a year, be far worse than people expected, or face competition from a massive game.


Being lousy wouldn't effect its first week sales. Probably won't make a difference on 2nd week. It would effect it in the long term though.



grimygunz on 02 January 2008

NA: 450k

Japan: 200k

Others: 600k

Total: 1.3m



--OkeyDokey-- on 02 January 2008

japan will definately have a higher debut than north america. my prediction is the best, watch it turn out to be spot on :)



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DMeisterJ on 02 January 2008

@ Okeydokey

IDK, I think you don't give MGS4 enough credit, but I could be wrong.



Dallinor on 02 January 2008

Japan- 230k

NA- 190k

Europe- 260k

Total- 680k



 

outlawauron on 02 January 2008

Japan - 315k
America - 285k
Others - 365k



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crumas2 on 03 January 2008

I'm only shooting for sales in Japan week 1. Here is my reasoning:

1. Compare to MGS2: Sons of Liberty... a high seller on PS2. I'm doing this because MGS4 will be the first available on the PS3 and we all know PS3 users are starved for good games.

2. When MGS2: Sons of Liberty was released in Japan on 11/29/01, there were approximately 6.2 m PS2 consoles in Japan, and 470,000 copies of the game were sold in the first week. This means 1 in 13 PS2 owners in Japan bought the game.

3. The current VGChartz total for PS3s in Japan would be 1.6 m. I'm making a wild guess that the number of PS3s in Japan will not exceed 2.25 m by the time this game is released.

4. If the attach rate for MGS4 on the PS3 holds similar to the attach rate of MGS2: Sons of Liberty on the PS2, then 1 in 13 PS3 owners in Japan will purchase MGS4 during the first week. This would be 173,000 copies sold in the first week in Japan.

173,000 is much lower than the 300,000+ I see some of you posting. How did you derive your numbers?



BKK on 03 January 2008

Nice methodology, but I think attach rate on 2.25M PS3 would be higher than on 6.2M PS2. Reasoning that the average PS3 owner would be a more hardcore gamer than the average PS2 owner and thus more likely to buy first day/week. I also expect PS3 sales to get a big bump that week from MGS fans who have yet to buy a PS3, so I think 250,000 - 300,000 is quite possible first week in Japan, and 173,000 to be a little low. At the bare minimum it should shift over 200,000 first week, which would probably still be disapointing for Konami. From that I predict first week JP sales of 275K. I think EU should be a little higher, and NA a little lower, so:

EU: 325K

JP: 275K

NA: 225K

Total: 825K

Not too confident on my NA and EU predictions, but think the JP one should be in the ballpark.