Nice methodology, but I think attach rate on 2.25M PS3 would be higher than on 6.2M PS2. Reasoning that the average PS3 owner would be a more hardcore gamer than the average PS2 owner and thus more likely to buy first day/week. I also expect PS3 sales to get a big bump that week from MGS fans who have yet to buy a PS3, so I think 250,000 - 300,000 is quite possible first week in Japan, and 173,000 to be a little low. At the bare minimum it should shift over 200,000 first week, which would probably still be disapointing for Konami. From that I predict first week JP sales of 275K. I think EU should be a little higher, and NA a little lower, so:
EU: 325K
JP: 275K
NA: 225K
Total: 825K
Not too confident on my NA and EU predictions, but think the JP one should be in the ballpark.
