I'm only shooting for sales in Japan week 1. Here is my reasoning:
1. Compare to MGS2: Sons of Liberty... a high seller on PS2. I'm doing this because MGS4 will be the first available on the PS3 and we all know PS3 users are starved for good games.
2. When MGS2: Sons of Liberty was released in Japan on 11/29/01, there were approximately 6.2 m PS2 consoles in Japan, and 470,000 copies of the game were sold in the first week. This means 1 in 13 PS2 owners in Japan bought the game.
3. The current VGChartz total for PS3s in Japan would be 1.6 m. I'm making a wild guess that the number of PS3s in Japan will not exceed 2.25 m by the time this game is released.
4. If the attach rate for MGS4 on the PS3 holds similar to the attach rate of MGS2: Sons of Liberty on the PS2, then 1 in 13 PS3 owners in Japan will purchase MGS4 during the first week. This would be 173,000 copies sold in the first week in Japan.
173,000 is much lower than the 300,000+ I see some of you posting. How did you derive your numbers?
