I think it will do a million day one, Halo 2.5 times it with near the same install base as PS3 will have when it comes out so I'll say:

NA 300k
EU: 350-400k
JP: 400k

First week will likely see all of them do fifty percent to seventy five percent more so like 1.5 to 1.75 first week.

 90k, r u serious?  Eh im sure you hate the ps3 but at least be realistic.

Anyways ill give my 2 cents.

America- 350k (very liberal prediction)

"Others"- 400k

Jap- 180k 

total- 930k 

Hmm... I was going to say a million put together with the smallest amount in Japan, but looking at the charts made me reconsider.

MGS1 did 350k in Japan
MGS2 did 470k in Japan
MGS3 did 490k in Japan and 220k in the US

Interesting how first day sales keep increasing in Japan, even though lifetime sales keep declining everywhere else.

So how to read these numbers? I have absolutely no idea!

Has anybody actually taken a look at past sales in making their predictions. Most of you have Japanese sales way too low and North American sales too high. Japan is the lowest seller of the 3 (with around 800- 900k) but sells half of the total sales in the first week. (MGS2 and MGS3 were both 475k+ in 1st week) Whereas the other two (especially NA) have better legs (MGS3 was 221k in first week in NA)

DMeisterJ probably has the best prediction i've seen, although NA is a bit high

Yall are making my first week Japan sales for this game look small, but I'll stick to them as the Japanese market is much different than it was 3-4 yrs ago. I based alot of my 1st week predictions of MGS4 in Japan off the PSP games of it. But hey I could be off. We'll see. But I think we are all predicting about 1 million first week which is pretty reasonable considering.

@dabaus513 : I based my prediction on MGS PO sales on PSP, since PS3 sales are much closer to PSP sales than PS2 sales. 90K may be a bit low, but it all depends on how PS3 sells until the game releases, and how much Sony hypes and markets the game.

Japan 350k
Europe 450k
North America 350K
Total = 1150k

North America 400k
Europe480k
Jpan250k
Total=1130k

Kuraobi, you really think the PSP one is going to sell better?

Can I hold you to your prediction?

Japan - 150K
America - 350K
Others - 400K

Total: 900K