Oh dear....

Well, his predictions are no more ridiculous than your own, really. ;>

This gen is unpredictable, really anything could happen.  360 could suddenly take off this Xmas and never look back.  Wii could keep selling out for the next 2 years and generate unheard of sales.  PS3 could keep slowly building steam until suddenly everyone wakes up and realizes it sold 100M again.

Just remember there were 150-160M consoles sold last gen, and with all the new non-gamers the Wii is supposedly attracting, is that total number really going to go down?  Especially with the heavily perceived notion that the Wii is the perfect secondary console for the 360/PS3 among the "hardcore" gamers, we might see even more multi-console owners this gen than last by the time it's over.  I could easily believe that both PS3 and Wii sell over 100M, or all three consoles sell 70M.  But for all three to sell under 40M?  That's what's truly ludicrous.

When the Wii hits the $99 price point, I can see the Wii selling to huge third world markets like China. Who knows, if it gets a hold in such places the sky really is the limit.

Actuly the only problem I see with Erik Aston statement is that the consol might become 10-12 years old. The rest is actuly spot on, for many people Wii = Wii Sport, and I must say that I don't get the reason why you would need HD for that game.

Looking at the "last-gen" we see that PS2 is still selling strong both in USA and EU, reason Buzz, singstar and guitarr hero. Casual games, this means that if Wii continue to sell well and takes the lead in early 2008, we could find us in the same situation. A consol that is fueld by casual gamers, which Wii partly already is. Now if casual games (Rayman, Wario, Wii Play, Wii Sport etc) continue to sell well on Wii, you will see more of these games for Wii both from Nintendo and 3rd parties, leading to that Wii will win the casual crowd. If that happens and the price of the Wii will get even lower I really wonder why it would be impossible to sell 80-100 millions. I also wonder why a life spann of 6-7 years should be impossible, that would be enough with 5 years as Nintendos primary consol and two years of continue sells for 99 USD to the casual crowd. I did never belive that Wii Sport would be such of an hit, but it is, and if Mii games can fuel the sales then HD is of no importance.

I also belive that xbox360 will sell more than 20 million because 360 wont be a 4 years consol, I would say that it is profit or bust. The same thing can be said about PS3, it is to expensive to just make it a 5 year consol. Both Microsoft and Sony needs to extend their lifespann as far as possible to regain early loss, this in turn will lead to that Nintendo doesn't need a new consol 2010.

I've said it before, Sony can't win a price war with Nintendo. The second that the PSP price is lowered to DS levels, Nintendo Drops the price to $99 or even $79. Even at those lower levels, Nintendo will still make money while Sony takes a bloodbath.

Same goes with the PS3. Sony drops the PS3 price to $300, Nintendo drops the Wii to $149. Again, Nintendo still makes money, Sony takes a bloodbath. 

I don't have much to say except:

I don't think there's anything wrong with buying a system "for the now."  I can buy a Wii and play it for a few years and then play another good Nintendo console.  I can't really do that with the PS3 if it's gonna cost me a fortune every time I buy a console.

Are sales of SD media, namely DVDs, falling as sales of HD media, discs and TVs, rise? They aren't. So the claim that Wii sales will drop with HD hitting mainstream has NO PROOF IT WILL HAPPEN.

Besides, it's not like the Wii is 4:3, 480i, composite, with analog signal. It supports all the output standards in HDTVs, except for HD resolutions: 16:9, 480p, component, and digital signal.

Sony didn't want to sell the PSP cheaper at the release date, because they weren't making a profit from selling it cheaper.  Similar to the PS3, Sony had made a system that wasn't making them a profit on each unit....only until they have produced loads, could they then reduce the cost.

Nintendo brought out the DS at $150 (£99 in the UK), whereas the PSP came in at $250 (£180 in the UK), not only until it had sold a reasonable number, reduced costs and started making a profit could they then reduce the price.  The DS has dropped to $140 (£89 in the UK) and the PSP has now managed to get to $170 (£150 in the UK at the moment) which is a huge $80 drop in 2 years.

I personally believe that they can reduce the price even further to bring it more in line with the current DS price and when is comes down in the UK to around £100 I think we will see a load of sales.

No, it won't get to the same level as the DS which is sitting around 40m worldwide, whereas the PSP is closer to 22m, but a significant drop in price before Christmas this year and you very well may see a large rise in sales.

As for the Wii not have competition.  I thought the 360 had sold 10m, not the Wii.  Although I'll give you, that the Wii will probably have the most sales come the end of this year out of all 3 next gen consoles, but it's how long it can hold onto the lead? 

The videogame market is entirely predictable, and there is nothing ridiculous about my predictions.

Usually videogames sell 1/2 of their yearly sales in the Xmas quarter. Given that sales went from 3.2 million to 6.5 million in 3 months, we can see that sales are at about 1.1 million/month WW right now. That means 9.9 million through September, and another 9.9 from Oct-Dec, for 19.8 million for 2007, and 23 million total. (I'm calculating base levels of demand, not saying Nintendo can or will produce that many units). Given the near-complete sell-outs, I'll estimate demand is at least 10% beyond that, and can say with total conviction that demand is there to sell well over 25 million units by the end of this year. Assuming that more games, that hit more audiences, with decreasing prices, increases the demand for the console, and seeing clearly that there isn't demand to do even 10 million units a year of either 360 or PS3 (meaning Wii will quickly have no competition), I can say with total conviction that all Nintendo needs to do is follow through on their promise of continually providing audience-expanding software to make Wii the best-selling home console of all time. Think I'm nuts? Wait. And. See.

There's 2 other consoles that launched just like Wii, with a pack-in the calibur of Wii Sports. One was the NES, with Super Mario Bros. (US release). The other was Game Boy, with Tetris. Both of those systems were outdated the first day they hit shelves. Both creamed multiple generations of competition.

I have a question: Is there any system which has retaken a lead after it lost it? Or let me state is like this:

if Wii sells 20 million before Xbox360 and PS3 does it, has it happend before that a consol has punched back in that position.

@davyee

When it comes to the sales of the Wii, I would say that HD generation wont affact it at all. Japan has a HD penetration of 60% (or something read it here on vgchartz so it could be wrong, please correct me if that is the case) and Wii has sold almost half of GC lifespann so far. That is because of Wii Play and Wii Sport. So again as I pointed out before: Why should sales that is deppendent on really ugly SD graphics, such as Wii Sport, be affected by the entry of the HD age? I think you underestimate the appeal for Wii Sport and similar games, just as we all thought that Brain Age wouldn't sell. The philosophy behind Wii is close to the philosophy that made DS to a 40 million consol, get more people playing. That alone has created 25 games that has sold more than 1 million WW, so don't underestimate "bad" technology.