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Forums - Sales Discussion - Lifespan of the Wii?

davygee said:
RolStoppable said:

Why didn't Sony drop the price of the PSP to the DS level? If price is the only reason why the DS is selling better, just sell the PSP for the same price and it will start to dominate and this will pay off in the latter years of the handheld.

The reason why Sony did not want to drop the PSP's price was because it would cut into their profits and wouldn't help the PSP to sell better than the DS. Even Sony's businessmen understood this, some of their fans should start to understand this too.

Both, DS and Wii, don't have a real competition. Both are the only consoles providing the new generation of videogames.

Any predictions for DS and Wii to sell below 100 million LTD are insane.

Maybe we should make another thread talking about the lifespan of the PS3. I predict 4 years IF they are lucky.


Sony didn't want to sell the PSP cheaper at the release date, because they weren't making a profit from selling it cheaper. Similar to the PS3, Sony had made a system that wasn't making them a profit on each unit....only until they have produced loads, could they then reduce the cost.

Nintendo brought out the DS at $150 (£99 in the UK), whereas the PSP came in at $250 (£180 in the UK), not only until it had sold a reasonable number, reduced costs and started making a profit could they then reduce the price. The DS has dropped to $140 (£89 in the UK) and the PSP has now managed to get to $170 (£150 in the UK at the moment) which is a huge $80 drop in 2 years.

I personally believe that they can reduce the price even further to bring it more in line with the current DS price and when is comes down in the UK to around £100 I think we will see a load of sales.

No, it won't get to the same level as the DS which is sitting around 40m worldwide, whereas the PSP is closer to 22m, but a significant drop in price before Christmas this year and you very well may see a large rise in sales.

As for the Wii not have competition. I thought the 360 had sold 10m, not the Wii. Although I'll give you, that the Wii will probably have the most sales come the end of this year out of all 3 next gen consoles, but it's how long it can hold onto the lead?

How does asking questions prove something can't happen? The thing is, just because YOU can't see it happening doesn't mean it won't. For one thing, you forget that the Wii does have a lot of upcoming games. It remains to see how well they do, but as that applies to every game, that says nothing.

And the rules of video game momentum state that's it's more likely to gain momentum rather than lose it. The Wii has strong sales, companies realize they have to support it (as several have stated), and put some of their top games on it, those games sell, more people buy the Wii for the games, more developer support, more games, more game sales, more developer support.

The early signs were there with the PS2, and with the PS1, after Square switched over, so it is likely that the Wii will keep its momentum. Now there is a chance something can stop it, but as HD had its best sales yet in the past year, yet people STILL bought the Wii, lack of HD isn't what stops it.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

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No way Wii only lasts 3 years, only way that could happen is if it went the way of the dreamcast and died due to loss of developer support (not gonna happen).  Wii can last as long as Nintendo supports it, which will likely be the typical 5-6 years (in 5 years new system released, keep supporting it for 1 more year). 

 Imagine if Sony kept making first party games for PS2, it would last a long time.  As it stands PS2 is gonna be still very strong in 07, and still a force in 08.  If Sony stayed with the ps2 and didn't release the ps3 they could keep good sales going until 2010 easily. 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

I believe the Wii will last 5 years as is normal with most consoles. People seem to be severely underestimating the demand of the Wii. There's already a record setting 6.5 million+ sold in under 5 months and they're still sold out worldwide... tickle me elmo doesn't even have that much demand. People are saying that it won't reach PS2 levels... and yet it is outselling the PS2 at this time in it's lifecycle by a large margin and this isn't counting the hordes of people that won't buy one until they can find it in stores.

 



Davygee: let´s look at sales history.

3rd generation (NES, Master System) ----> 70 million consoles sold.

4th generation (SNES, Megadrive/Genesis) -----> 70 million consoles sold.

5th generation (PSX, N64, Saturn) -------------> 140 milion consoles sold.

6th generation (PS2, XBox, GC, DC) ---------------> 155 (+DC: 165) milion consoles sold.

 

There was a growth in every single generation till today + we´ve got a mainstream system (Wii) which is likely to expand the audience (and the audience already expands at the moment we talk) so why do you suggest the highest sales for a console could be 40 milion? Even in the best case this would bring us to 120 milion consoles sold which is a drop of 35 milion... how can you see this happening?



davygee said:
vanguardian1 said:
I agree 80-100 million aren't favorable odds for wii, but I don't see the 360 doing more than 35 or the PS3 doing more than 50 million either. At this point, I don't see how the wii could end in less than first by the next console launch. Neither the PS3 or the 360 will get the "mass appeal" that the PS2 got, which the Wii is closest to getting already.

No console (excluding the DS) this generation will get close to 80-100m. I reckon a top level of around 40m is being realistic for any of the 3 machines. I personally don't see the 360 getting much more than 20m, even if they manage to get to that level. The PS3 will gather speed towards the end of this year and next year will be a much better one for the PS3. I can see the PS3 getting 30-40m sales over it's lifetime and a similar amount for the Wii as well....maybe slightly lower....depends on how well it does next year.


 Don't tell me.... A SONY FAN



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With it likely to gain a lot of dev support in the coming months I see the Wii lasting until 2010-2011 easily, I can see the Wii ending up with the lion's share of games and the largest userbase WW



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

First, to answer your question in the thread's title, the wii's lifespan will be five years as the first nintendo console. Nintendo will then release a new one an wii will probably keep selling for one or two other years. this will happen no matter what, because nintendo makes profit of the wii, even if it won't win this console generation.

Second, after two or maybe three years a console is either a winner or a loser console. After that amount of time, third parties will definitely decide which console they are supporting. Some people say that nintendo consoles stop selling after three years. This is true for n64 and gc, but not because they are nintendo consoles but because they were loser consoles. This is important because a lot of sony fans state that the ps3's sales will increase after some years. This won't happen. Start selling slow and increase sales later only works with a head start, but if a console already starts with handicap, it needs strong sales right from the beginning to at least have a chance to catch up.

 Third, hd will never become important in this generation. One reason for that is my second point, because at the moment hd is spread widely enough, the war of this generation is already over and the winner is clear. the other reason is that people who have a hd-tv are not going to buy a hd-console just because they got such a tv. this is the mistake many of you make. I, for example, own a hd-tv. but the question which console I am going to buy is a different one and does not depend on the tv i own. it would matter if the wii wouldn't work with a hd-tv, but this is not the case.

Fourth, and last, the statement xbox and ps2 owners are not going to buy a wii is just ridiculous. I guess they were the strongest buyers of wii's until now. many of you believe that all the ps2 owners are hardcore gamers. this is not true. i guess that 80 percent of the ps2 owners and 50 percent of the gc and xbox owners are not hardcore gamers. they are not just casuals, but they are gamers who own around 10 games and probably didn't finish them. This people are now buying a wii. They are interested in consoles, but not in the way hardcore gamers are. But they already know how to handle a console which makes them fast buyers of wiis.



Currently Playing: Skies of Arcadia Legends (GC), Dragon Quest IV (DS)

Last Game beaten: The Rub Rabbits(DS)

Nintendo has never initiated the release of 'next gen' consoles. SNES came out years after Genisis and other sytems. N64 came out a year after ps1, gc came out a year after ps2.

The real question should be when will MS put out a new system, as they are more likely to do  so than any other company. I know I have said in the past that within 3 years we will see a WiiHD, however, I see that more as a DS to DSL change than a new console. I think that will be more of a firmware thing than hardware thing. Possibly with a better sensor and new HD firmware, upto 1080i probably.

Back to MS, I see them keeping the 360Elite for 5 years. Thus, in 2011 we will see the introduction of a new xbox. Then by 2012 a new Nintendo product with a different name (as they never use the same name) and possibly a new PS4.

Also, for the LTD of systems, 30m for 360, 40, for ps3, and 80m for Wii/WiiHD by 2012.



While most people think that the Wii's power, or lack thereof, will be it's downfall, I think that's where it will help keep its lead. With the lower power of the Wii, comes its lower price. It will have the ability to undercut its opponents price at any time, whether it is a reaction to a price cut or to preempt one. The PS3 is in no position to do either. They will have to make several price cuts to even make Nintendo sweat.

Nintendo hasn't had to make any strategy changes as well. All they've been doing is raising their sales predictions. They are just sitting there while the 3rd party developers are coming to them. Sony is scrambling just to keep them from leaving altogether. There is no pressure on Nintendo to drop price, while Sony is constantly being asked if there will be one this year. Nintendo didn't have to stop making their lower model Wii....because there isn't one.

I really don't like how Sony has put the idea in everyone's head that $600 is expensive, it makes it look like that $300 is not that bad. I think $300 for a videogame console is very expensive. By the time the PS3 gets down to $300, the Wii will be $100 or there will be a new Nintendo just as powerful as the PS3 at the same price. Also at this time, stand alone HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players will be less than $300, so why buy a PS3?

Nintendo will sell 100M+ consoles this generation. PS3 at 35M and 25M for the 360.  



Wii Code 8761-5941-4718-0078 

Erik Aston said:

Well, his predictions are no more ridiculous than your own, really. ;>

This gen is unpredictable, really anything could happen.  360 could suddenly take off this Xmas and never look back.  Wii could keep selling out for the next 2 years and generate unheard of sales.  PS3 could keep slowly building steam until suddenly everyone wakes up and realizes it sold 100M again.


The videogame market is entirely predictable, and there is nothing ridiculous about my predictions.

Usually videogames sell 1/2 of their yearly sales in the Xmas quarter. Given that sales went from 3.2 million to 6.5 million in 3 months, we can see that sales are at about 1.1 million/month WW right now. That means 9.9 million through September, and another 9.9 from Oct-Dec, for 19.8 million for 2007, and 23 million total. (I'm calculating base levels of demand, not saying Nintendo can or will produce that many units). Given the near-complete sell-outs, I'll estimate demand is at least 10% beyond that, and can say with total conviction that demand is there to sell well over 25 million units by the end of this year. Assuming that more games, that hit more audiences, with decreasing prices, increases the demand for the console, and seeing clearly that there isn't demand to do even 10 million units a year of either 360 or PS3 (meaning Wii will quickly have no competition), I can say with total conviction that all Nintendo needs to do is follow through on their promise of continually providing audience-expanding software to make Wii the best-selling home console of all time. Think I'm nuts? Wait. And. See.

There's 2 other consoles that launched just like Wii, with a pack-in the calibur of Wii Sports. One was the NES, with Super Mario Bros. (US release). The other was Game Boy, with Tetris. Both of those systems were outdated the first day they hit shelves. Both creamed multiple generations of competition.


Um..at the end there you brought up the NES and the Game Boy?Those consoles had ABSOLUTELY no competition when they released.The other problem is you console sales estimates do not consider that the Wii is very affordable to all people right now.There will be Price cuts for all 3 systems but the Wii is already viewed as very affordable so i am not sure if a price cut will increase numbers of systems sold.The PS3 will probly gain the most from a price cut....People will have a Bargain system at the Wii level and a "cutting edge system"with the PS3.I do think this generation will last a bit longer than last gen did....Microsoft may have to jump the gun this time too though but I think the PS3 will be able to last 7 years to Microsofts 360's 4 or 5  and maybe both nintendo and microsoft launch a new system then but the PS3 will be far from outdated they will already be running in HD format the games will look amazing still.and I think with the evelution of the Eye toy for the PS3 it will have Motion sensing with your whole body it should be able to detect depth so gameplay inovations will be there.but in no way do I see the Wii staying for 10-12 years tech wise as it is games that come out for the Wii that are not fully Wii remote functional will continue to see release on the PS2 as well so If the Wii lasts 10 years and the games are not all Wii remote revolving games how long would that keep the PS2 around (if I was Sony I would be hittin Nintendo with Multi colored editions of the PS2 It works for Nintendo I really think that several diferent colors of the PS2 with the eye toy would get some casual people buying PS2's $ they could have spent on the Wii)Use the PS2 to compete with Wii and Isolate next gen competition to the 360