How long it is before the next Nintendo console is released is largely dependent on when Microsoft releases the next Xbox. 2012 sounds like a good date. In terms of strong sales, Wii's already seen the best it's going to get. We may see a December in excess of a million in the US, but there are very few areas in which the system can improve. Over the past couple cycles, Nintendo's become very close to invisible around the 3-4 year mark. I don't see why it wouldn't happen again. However, it will continue to be profitable regardless, and I would expect it to be around the N64 level, so it would ultimately be successful. These predictionns to 80-100 million+ are definitely drug induced, though.

I agree 80-100 million aren't favorable odds for wii, but I don't see the 360 doing more than 35 or the PS3 doing more than 50 million either.  At this point, I don't see how the wii could end in less than first by the next console launch.  Neither the PS3 or the 360 will get the "mass appeal" that the PS2 got, which the Wii is closest to getting already.

MS released the 360 only 4 years after the original Xbox was released and sales after the first year are very eerily similar, but the original Xbox was competing against a much stronger console, the PS2 which alredy had around 20m units sold before it was released and there was the DC and GC on the market as well.

This says to me that MS may very well be looking into a successor as early as 2009/2010 which would be 4/5 years after the 360 had been released.  Playstations seem to be different; the PS2 came 5 years after the PS1 and even at that, the PS1 continued to have new games for another 3-4 years after the introduction of the PS2.  It looks like it will be a similar case for the PS3 as well, with developers making PS2 games well into 2008 giving both playstations so far an 8 year lifespan.  And I expect no less from the PS3 (unless Sony goes tits up).

Nintendo will probably move at the same time as MS with a new console around the same time, which as I said before, will give the Wii a 3-4 year lifespan. 

I don't think that HD penetration means that much... After all, most consoles will be sold to kids. And if household has one HDTV, it usually isn't in the kids room. I have been telling about the 3rd world countries, they have a lot of potential and if Nintendo can push Wiis price low enough, it could sell well in the 3rd world countries (at this point, its still much to expensive). Most households buy only one console/generation, so they will buy games for the console if they want to play it. And as long as people buy games, they will make games. But, if Wii gets too much audience from the non gamers, it would affect to game sales and 3rd party would lose its interest for the console. The most popular systen usually sells after next generation release (look at PS2 now, it's been over a year since current gen started and it's still selling and NES had its last game at -95). So if Wii gets popular (and cheap) enough, it could last easilly to 2020 (remember the third world).

No console (excluding the DS) this generation will get close to 80-100m.  I reckon a top level of around 40m is being realistic for any of the 3 machines.  I personally don't see the 360 getting much more than 20m, even if they manage to get to that level.  The PS3 will gather speed towards the end of this year and next year will be a much better one for the PS3.  I can see the PS3 getting 30-40m sales over it's lifetime and a similar amount for the Wii as well....maybe slightly lower....depends on how well it does next year.

i think the wii have this arguments against the theory of the short lifepan:

1. nes, snes, playstation 1, playstation 2, gameboy, gameboy color, gameboy advance are the low powered versions of the market in your time and all are the best selling hardware system of your time. (and maybe the ds join to this list)

2. all the best selling systems have a big support of the "casual gamers" and wii have it now

3. your short price and the potential for a more cheap price, give more months or years for your sell, although its successor already this on sale, one great example of this is the gba, that two years after the out of the DS it is continue selling in the US.

4. new peripherals or new versions of the wii, like the nintendo jr, psone, ps2 slim ,etc give more months or years of life.

5. the new market that nintendo attracts did not matter to them the graphics

5. the third partys support by the big userbase

6. the connection  with the ds and with the new portable product of nintendo

7 the wii chanels with have much potential (TV, movies, audio, software, etc) with the posiblity of a total usb support or a hard drive by nintendo

8 well the rest depend of nintendo, well many thing to happen in a future, well thing like a wii with HDDVD o blueray support (the blueray is not only of sony http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association and for that microsoft think in a blueray support), wiiboots, wiigloves, i dont know what have to the future.  

Jeez everyone is pessimistic for console sales.

 20m for the 360? It's already sold half of that!

As for the Wii -

The lifespan really depends on how demand goes when the Wii starts going against a mass-market price against the 360 and even PS3. The Wii has the advantage of being blindingly cheap compared to either system. Once the 360 hits that price, Wii sales *could* drop, and once the PS3 does it, so could they.

The Wii is trying to get new gamers, not cater to the older ones. If thats truely the case, we have about 150m gamers that bought Xboxes or PS2s that *might* not buy a Wii...Thats a huge #.

The big question is (to answer the Wii longevity question): How many PS2/Xbox owners will buy Wiis? If there isnt a large #, then the casuals will drive Wii sales, allowing for the major/mid major titles to goto the 360/PS3, lowering dev support for the Wii at some point in the future, and eventually hurting it in 2008-2009.

IMO, I see a new Wii (an actual new Wii w/ a CPU/GPU upgrade and other real revisions, not a Wii lite or WiiHD) in 2010.

I think 20m 360's is quite a realistic number.  It's been out for 16 months now and is just short of 10m, not don't forget, that they've not had any next gen competition for the entire first 12 months since release, now they have to compete with both the Wii and PS3.

MS have placed a target of 12m for the end of June 2007 which is a reasonable reduction on their initial target of 13-15m. I reckon they will be close to 20m 360's come the end of 2008, by then the console will have been on the market for over 3 years and may very well be thinking of a replacement for the end of 2009 or early 2010. 

 I agree with davygee. I think the Wii is going to last three years. With an uber WiiHD coming out just in time to get ahead of the next console war. And since it will be a few years into the whole HD phenomenom I bet it will get released it $250 US. And by then you will be able to pick up regular Wii for around $150. 

I love my Wii but I will love it more as WiiHD. The trick was to get everyone sold on the concept and then make everyone buy a new version later in it's life. Just like the GameBoy and DS/DS Lite.

And some of these numbers for console sales are bleek. I do think the XBOX 360 can eclipse 20 million in sales. Especially with Halo3, GOW2, and GTA4 all coming soon! 

And I also predict that Microsoft will do away with the XBOX live subscription fee. That alone would be a huge move and be welcomed by people like me who just don't want to pay for something like that. And it would give one less argument to why NOT buy an XBOX360. I would seriously consider it. Otherwise I would just buy a PS3 and recoup my costs in about two years of LIVE fees. Duh.

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NES was outdated in 1983... In fact, just like Wii, NES was intentionally built to be outdated... Despite being mocked for how outdated it was in 1983 and during the American launch in 1985, NES remained viable right into the early 90s, a couple years after the release of SNES. (Note: long after the release of multiple more powerful systems from Sega.) Things have not changed so much today. A console built with several years old technology in 1983 is viable in 1991, far outlasting more powerful console-like PCs. A console built with several years old technology in 2006 is viable in 2014, far outlasting more powerful PC-like consoles. HD doesn't change this at all. HD penetration will shoot sky high when prices come down far enough. Which means your average HDTV owner is not going to be someone who is really invested in the extra pixels. If they want a console, it will be the one with the great games they keep hearing about, period.

The console with the early lead has the long life. Wii is going to catch 360 in July or August, and then its never going to look back.

I see people predicting Wii sales reach 16 million this year, not realizing they're predicting the most dramatic sales slowdown in videogame history. I see people saying Wii sales have peaked, when they're supply constrained. And they see sales slowing down next year, and the year after... Honestly, why would they slow down? They're going to start slowing down as the tons of third party games being announced now start coming out? They're going to start slowing down when Nintendo's lineup of "non-games" is 3 or 4 times as strong? They're going to start slowing down when price cuts enter the picture? Why?? Because people will lose interest in Wii Health Pack when they hear its only in 480p, and instead go for Metal Gear Solid 4, I guess. Gimme a break.

I'm predicting not only 80-100 million sales, but 150 million sales. And a lifespan of at least 6 years, and possibly 10-12 years.