Lifespan of the Wii?

[Erik Aston]

NES was outdated in 1983... In fact, just like Wii, NES was intentionally built to be outdated... Despite being mocked for how outdated it was in 1983 and during the American launch in 1985, NES remained viable right into the early 90s, a couple years after the release of SNES. (Note: long after the release of multiple more powerful systems from Sega.) Things have not changed so much today. A console built with several years old technology in 1983 is viable in 1991, far outlasting more powerful console-like PCs. A console built with several years old technology in 2006 is viable in 2014, far outlasting more powerful PC-like consoles. HD doesn't change this at all. HD penetration will shoot sky high when prices come down far enough. Which means your average HDTV owner is not going to be someone who is really invested in the extra pixels. If they want a console, it will be the one with the great games they keep hearing about, period.

The console with the early lead has the long life. Wii is going to catch 360 in July or August, and then its never going to look back.

I see people predicting Wii sales reach 16 million this year, not realizing they're predicting the most dramatic sales slowdown in videogame history. I see people saying Wii sales have peaked, when they're supply constrained. And they see sales slowing down next year, and the year after... Honestly, why would they slow down? They're going to start slowing down as the tons of third party games being announced now start coming out? They're going to start slowing down when Nintendo's lineup of "non-games" is 3 or 4 times as strong? They're going to start slowing down when price cuts enter the picture? Why?? Because people will lose interest in Wii Health Pack when they hear its only in 480p, and instead go for Metal Gear Solid 4, I guess. Gimme a break.

I'm predicting not only 80-100 million sales, but 150 million sales. And a lifespan of at least 6 years, and possibly 10-12 years.