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MS released the 360 only 4 years after the original Xbox was released and sales after the first year are very eerily similar, but the original Xbox was competing against a much stronger console, the PS2 which alredy had around 20m units sold before it was released and there was the DC and GC on the market as well.

This says to me that MS may very well be looking into a successor as early as 2009/2010 which would be 4/5 years after the 360 had been released.  Playstations seem to be different; the PS2 came 5 years after the PS1 and even at that, the PS1 continued to have new games for another 3-4 years after the introduction of the PS2.  It looks like it will be a similar case for the PS3 as well, with developers making PS2 games well into 2008 giving both playstations so far an 8 year lifespan.  And I expect no less from the PS3 (unless Sony goes tits up).

Nintendo will probably move at the same time as MS with a new console around the same time, which as I said before, will give the Wii a 3-4 year lifespan. 



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)