Hus said: 3 years.. max 4

What are you basing this on (and no, blind fanboyism and a hatred towards Nintendo caused by a nasty head bump during childhood are not valid reasons)?

I'll prognosticate myself:

PS3 = 3 years.. max 4 

I believe that end of 2010/beginning of 2011 will be the last season for this generation.

I think Nintendo has done their homework, and learned from the humbling they have been on the receiving end of for awhile. They have been great enough in delivering the goods, and smart enough fiscally to keep their heads above water in the last two generations. I think the Wii is something that will be around longer than the standard five years. I also think it is foolish to think the Wii doesn’t have a chance to break sales records ( PS1/PS2/Gameboy) So, if Wii breaks new grounds and taps new markets, you seriously think it’s absurd that they can sell over 100 million units? One day, for instance, if China’s economy shapes up, and their isn’t a huge war as a result, selling a 100 million units won’t be as astonishing as it perhaps is today. While, the Big N might release another console after five years, I still think Nintendo will have support the Wii more so than other systems in the past. The primary reason for this is that the Wii is about converting people. It’s a different approach to the gaming industry as a whole; this includes marketing and sales. It’s about tapping into new markets and getting people who would never think about playing video games into the industry, on top of pleasing old gamers. Now if Nintendo continues to flourish with the Wii, I think they will use it as a crutch to hopefully get the new gaming converts to buy –another– system. This is something that people new to games have a hard time swallowing. I personally have had discussions with people who have bought video game systems for the first time in years ( since probably the 16 bit era and before ) who were telling me that they were not going to buy an Xbox 360 or PS3 because “The same games will come out on my Xbox/PS2.” It is naive, but this statement I heard from different people, in different conversations, who actually had played video games earlier in their life. That is, people who have seen systems come and go before. Perhaps it is in the general public’s knowledge that systems come and go...but honestly most people don’t THAT close attention to the blips in the news about the “new” Nintendo system. Let alone, readily understand that their potential investment will be deemed obsolete in five years. Have you never heard a parent surprised at your local game store because their child wants ANOTHER game system? Perhaps that’s just my experience with the market speaking. Now when I say I think Nintendo will support the Wii after their new console will come out, I don’t mean they will be fully focused on the Wii. Rather, I feel they will still make games that attract casual gamers and new gamers who might not be hooked enough to thinking about buying another system. I think that the Wii will have many third party developers still putting out titles for the system even it its twilight years IF Nintendo is able to crack into different markets. These games might not be defined as “AAA” titles by the gaming enthusiasts such as ourselves, but once more the Wii is not only taking a gamble at penetrating new ground, it is also about converting new people to a hobby. This alone will be Nintendo’s greatest challenge; proselytizing gaming. No matter how many systems they sell, without the games to interest the new converts this attempt is for naught. There will be people who pick up gaming as a major hobby due to the Wii, but I think it’s foolish to think that every newcomer to the gaming industry will be immediately pre-ordering the next system(s). Nintendo’s different approach to gaming market with Wii also must include a different kind of support for a system than we have seen in the past (Perhaps with the exception of the NES.). I don’t think we will see the Wii drop dead once the successor is released. There will be difference influences and currents underneath the types of games that will be designed for the green of the industry. I don’t think it is quite another genre in its own right, but it could be compared to that. On top of all that, Nintendo needs to have great “AAA” type caliber games to please the gaming enthusiast and perhaps give the new convert something to “upgrade” to as their hobby evolves. There is a lot of gambles riding on Wii’s success; And I, for one, hope that they all pay off as I believe it will be the best thing for the gaming industry that could possibly have happen in a long time.

I think that brings up an interesting point ...

India and China have a combined population of (roughly) 2.5 Billion people and economies that are growing at unreal rates (about 10% per year). One of the things that has been mentioned in several articles is that there is a rapidly growing population in these countries that is approaching the wealth of middle class North Americans. The interesting thing is that Nintendo (if they're careful) may be able to take advantage of this market unlike any company has before hand; if Nintendo could get the Wii to be (roughly) $100 in China/India and convinced developers to sell their 2 year old (or older) games for $10 they could really make inroads.

I think N64 range is a pretty fair estimate for Microsoft as well. They just haven't been aggressive enough with this headstart and really haven't caught on too well anywhere but the US. Sony's the only company with a shot of approaching PS1/2 levels, but even they will most likely be down this generation.

Once you get out of the launch period, sales trends get set quickly. PS3 has absolutely no chance of selling 100m.

I don't see Nintendo rushing out another console, whether they need to or not. They'll be more than happy to let Microsoft have another headstart. Nintendo will be pushed by Sony, not Microsoft.

Sony and Microsoft will be pushed by Nintendo.

As much talk as there is of casual gamers, Sony's traditionally been the company to appeal to them. I'm not convinced the casual gamer impact has been much at all for Nintendo. It just doesn't make any logical sense for casual gamers to be buying systems this early in a system's life. For every soccer mom, you've got 10 fanboys looking for the next Mario. Not to say they won't necessarily be able to appeal to a broader group eventually, but how many people who are just borderline interested are going to go through the trouble of getting something unless it's in stock?

Look at the game sales in Feb in NA. Wii Play 406K. WarioWare 130K. Rayman 64K. You tell me if casuals are buying the system yet? Do they make up the bulk of sales yet? No way. But those 400K copies of Wii Play aren't selling to the "hardcore" base that read the reviews for it.

Wii sales have peaked. Will Wii ever have a December as big as the last one in Europe or Japan again? Will Wii ever have a Q1 globally as big as this last one? That's not necessarily a bad thing, as it launched very well, but being realistic, it did step on its best foot first.

You can't have already peaked when you're selling out during a production increase.

Are predictions made entirely on the basis of the first few months of sales of a new system even worth commenting on?

Of course. There were people making predictions with no sales data, who have proved to be totally true, and whats more, for the right reasons. The videogame market is highly predictable. Most analysts just suck at their jobs.

This is a prediction about the first few months, not about the long term success solely on the basis of the first few months. ----- If anyone's gonna tap a new market like China and India, it won't be Nintendo. Their 20 years in Europe shows us that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and PS1 had no chance of selling 100 million either. Do we really need to go in this circle again? So you're saying Nintendo's going to release a new console and the other two will follow it because they're scared? Because that seems like it's out of left field, and I'm completely out there with it trying to figure out where it came from. ----- The Wii Sports pack-in and the Nintendo name are selling Wii Play. Plenty of hardcore gamers will buy it. What other choice do they have? They already got Zelda. So I guess that means the only other choice they have is Warioware. Oh wait.

Shane said: Assuming the last part is true, your prediction of the Wii peaking is no more credible. This is a prediction about the first few months, not about the long term success solely on the basis of the first few months. ----- If anyone's gonna tap a new market like China and India, it won't be Nintendo. Their 20 years in Europe shows us that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and PS1 had no chance of selling 100 million either. Do we really need to go in this circle again? Sony and Microsoft will be pushed by Nintendo. So you're saying Nintendo's going to release a new console and the other two will follow it because they're scared? Because that seems like it's out of left field, and I'm completely out there with it trying to figure out where it came from. ----- The Wii Sports pack-in and the Nintendo name are selling Wii Play. Plenty of hardcore gamers will buy it. What other choice do they have? They already got Zelda. So I guess that means the only other choice they have is Warioware. Oh wait.

 Well where is the evidence that the Wii has peaked? You don't have any. And any claims it's just a fad have no evidence.

LordTheNightKnight said: Shane said: Assuming the last part is true, your prediction of the Wii peaking is no more credible. This is a prediction about the first few months, not about the long term success solely on the basis of the first few months. ----- If anyone's gonna tap a new market like China and India, it won't be Nintendo. Their 20 years in Europe shows us that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and PS1 had no chance of selling 100 million either. Do we really need to go in this circle again? Sony and Microsoft will be pushed by Nintendo. So you're saying Nintendo's going to release a new console and the other two will follow it because they're scared? Because that seems like it's out of left field, and I'm completely out there with it trying to figure out where it came from. ----- The Wii Sports pack-in and the Nintendo name are selling Wii Play. Plenty of hardcore gamers will buy it. What other choice do they have? They already got Zelda. So I guess that means the only other choice they have is Warioware. Oh wait. Well where is the evidence that the Wii has peaked? You don't have any. And any claims it's just a fad have no evidence.

Since when has that stopped them? It cracks me up because these are the same people who say the iPod has been a fad since generation one, despite every piece of objective evidence saying otherwise.

FishyJoe said: LordTheNightKnight said: Shane said: Assuming the last part is true, your prediction of the Wii peaking is no more credible. This is a prediction about the first few months, not about the long term success solely on the basis of the first few months. ----- If anyone's gonna tap a new market like China and India, it won't be Nintendo. Their 20 years in Europe shows us that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and PS1 had no chance of selling 100 million either. Do we really need to go in this circle again? Sony and Microsoft will be pushed by Nintendo. So you're saying Nintendo's going to release a new console and the other two will follow it because they're scared? Because that seems like it's out of left field, and I'm completely out there with it trying to figure out where it came from. ----- The Wii Sports pack-in and the Nintendo name are selling Wii Play. Plenty of hardcore gamers will buy it. What other choice do they have? They already got Zelda. So I guess that means the only other choice they have is Warioware. Oh wait. Well where is the evidence that the Wii has peaked? You don't have any. And any claims it's just a fad have no evidence. Since when has that stopped them? It cracks me up because these are the same people who say the iPod has been a fad since generation one, despite every piece of objective evidence saying otherwise.

 It's not denial, they are just selective about the reality they accept.

Shane said: Assuming the last part is true, your prediction of the Wii peaking is no more credible. This is a prediction about the first few months, not about the long term success solely on the basis of the first few months. ----- If anyone's gonna tap a new market like China and India, it won't be Nintendo. Their 20 years in Europe shows us that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and PS1 had no chance of selling 100 million either. Do we really need to go in this circle again? Sony and Microsoft will be pushed by Nintendo. So you're saying Nintendo's going to release a new console and the other two will follow it because they're scared? Because that seems like it's out of left field, and I'm completely out there with it trying to figure out where it came from. ----- The Wii Sports pack-in and the Nintendo name are selling Wii Play. Plenty of hardcore gamers will buy it. What other choice do they have? They already got Zelda. So I guess that means the only other choice they have is Warioware. Oh wait.

Sony is planning to release PS3 in China (or has released), but with that price, only the western businessmen, who are on an assignment in China, are able to buy it. Anyway, China isn't new market to Nintendo, with NES having its Asian version, which looked like the western version, but games weren't compatible. India is a little harder, because it has big toll fees to everything imported, so the consoles sold in India, practically have to be made in india. If Nintendo releases console in China (or any comparable country), it will be a diffent version (like PAL, NTSC-J etc.), because games cannot be sold at the same price, as in the western countries, and you have to somehow restrict importing from the cheap countries. Nintendos 20 years in Europe. Hmm. They founded NOE in 1991, if i recall. In NES times, they propably did not see the market so clearly, because of the Mattel-NES, which was made by Mattel and sold in the UK. But now, when you are clearly comparing Nintendo to Sony, which has had ready marketing channels in tricky (at that time even trickier) European market, it's really something you can't compare. And Nintendo was doing fine with it's (small) importers in every European country. But this created a little problem with marketing. Since importers were small and Nintendo wasn't in charge of marketing, Nintendo products weren't marketed that good, that they nowdays are. But Sony had it's channels and have had good marketing allways (i can remember).