I think N64 range is a pretty fair estimate for Microsoft as well. They just haven't been aggressive enough with this headstart and really haven't caught on too well anywhere but the US. Sony's the only company with a shot of approaching PS1/2 levels, but even they will most likely be down this generation.
Once you get out of the launch period, sales trends get set quickly. PS3 has absolutely no chance of selling 100m.
I don't see Nintendo rushing out another console, whether they need to or not. They'll be more than happy to let Microsoft have another headstart. Nintendo will be pushed by Sony, not Microsoft.
Sony and Microsoft will be pushed by Nintendo.
As much talk as there is of casual gamers, Sony's traditionally been the company to appeal to them. I'm not convinced the casual gamer impact has been much at all for Nintendo. It just doesn't make any logical sense for casual gamers to be buying systems this early in a system's life. For every soccer mom, you've got 10 fanboys looking for the next Mario. Not to say they won't necessarily be able to appeal to a broader group eventually, but how many people who are just borderline interested are going to go through the trouble of getting something unless it's in stock?
Look at the game sales in Feb in NA. Wii Play 406K. WarioWare 130K. Rayman 64K. You tell me if casuals are buying the system yet? Do they make up the bulk of sales yet? No way. But those 400K copies of Wii Play aren't selling to the "hardcore" base that read the reviews for it.
Wii sales have peaked. Will Wii ever have a December as big as the last one in Europe or Japan again? Will Wii ever have a Q1 globally as big as this last one? That's not necessarily a bad thing, as it launched very well, but being realistic, it did step on its best foot first.
You can't have already peaked when you're selling out during a production increase.
Are predictions made entirely on the basis of the first few months of sales of a new system even worth commenting on?
Of course. There were people making predictions with no sales data, who have proved to be totally true, and whats more, for the right reasons. The videogame market is highly predictable. Most analysts just suck at their jobs.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
