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Forums - Sales Discussion - Lifespan of the Wii?

HappySqurriel on 12 April 2007

Even though I believe the Wii is at a price level which is highly affordable for many consumers it is no where near to being so inexpensive that further price drops will not impact demand. It is likely that you will see demand increase as the Wii goes from $249 to $199, $149 and (finally) $99; at that point people will buy the system for 1 game. Besides that this generation will (likely) last as long as companies are selling a decent number of systems and games for each of the platforms. If Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft end up finding themselves in a position where they have sold less than (about) 5 Million consoles in a year and game sales are struggling they will replace their system or leave the market.



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Erik Aston on 12 April 2007

NorthStar said:Um..at the end there you brought up the NES and the Game Boy?Those consoles had ABSOLUTELY no competition when they released.

Creating or recreating a dead market is its own challenge. Regardless, both NES and GB faced competition later in their cycles. I ask you this: is it more likely for an unproven new console  or a disproven old system to make headway against a dominant console later in the cycle? And of course the comparison there was merely Wii Sports to Tetris and Super Mario Bros., which I think is fair.

The other problem is you console sales estimates do not consider that the Wii is very affordable to all people right now.There will be Price cuts for all 3 systems but the Wii is already viewed as very affordable so i am not sure if a price cut will increase numbers of systems sold.The PS3 will probly gain the most from a price cut....People will have a Bargain system at the Wii level and a "cutting edge system"with the PS3.I do think this generation will last a bit longer than last gen did....

We already have a "bargain" system and two "cutting edge" systems, and we can see which is selling better. PS3 and to a lesser extent 360 will never be able to compete with Nintendo price-wise, and this is in no way an advantage for them no matter how you spin it. Sony should have just released PS3 for 1000 bucks, then they could cut the price even more, right? All the people "waiting for the price to come down" will not jump on board when it does if Wii is already dominant and has all the games.

Microsoft may have to jump the gun this time too though but I think the PS3 will be able to last 7 years to Microsofts 360's 4 or 5  and maybe both nintendo and microsoft launch a new system then but the PS3 will be far from outdated they will already be running in HD format the games will look amazing still.

Wii is outdated today, while 360 and PS3 look amazing, and we can see which is selling better. As I said, people are not going to go "I want Wii Health Pack, but it looks like crap at 480p. I think I'll get a PS3 for MGS4 instead."

and I think with the evelution of the Eye toy for the PS3 it will have Motion sensing with your whole body it should be able to detect depth so gameplay inovations will be there.but in no way do I see the Wii staying for 10-12 years tech wise as it is games that come out for the Wii that are not fully Wii remote functional will continue to see release on the PS2 as well so If the Wii lasts 10 years and the games are not all Wii remote revolving games how long would that keep the PS2 around (if I was Sony I would be hittin Nintendo with Multi colored editions of the PS2 It works for Nintendo I really think that several diferent colors of the PS2 with the eye toy would get some casual people buying PS2's $ they could have spent on the Wii)Use the PS2 to compete with Wii and Isolate next gen competition to the 360

One could also argue that with all the remaining major PS2 games coming out for Wii, which unlike PS2 has many killer apps for 2007, that the PS2-to-Wii ports will hurt PS2. In general, what you're saying is right, in that Sony SHOULD HAVE used PS2 to attack Wii, but they're pretty committed to next-gen at this point. I think Sony could have stuck with PS2 as their main console for another 3 years, releasing motion-controlled games and "edu-tainment" software alongside continued releases of key franchises like Ratchet, God of War and EyeToy. They totally had the ability to take on next-gen with PS2 had they wanted to. In terms of lasting for 10 years... Consider that the last reporting period that PSone outshipped GCN was in September of 2003.


 



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

LordTheNightKnight on 12 April 2007
NorthStar said:
Erik Aston said:

Well, his predictions are no more ridiculous than your own, really. ;>

This gen is unpredictable, really anything could happen. 360 could suddenly take off this Xmas and never look back. Wii could keep selling out for the next 2 years and generate unheard of sales. PS3 could keep slowly building steam until suddenly everyone wakes up and realizes it sold 100M again.


The videogame market is entirely predictable, and there is nothing ridiculous about my predictions.

Usually videogames sell 1/2 of their yearly sales in the Xmas quarter. Given that sales went from 3.2 million to 6.5 million in 3 months, we can see that sales are at about 1.1 million/month WW right now. That means 9.9 million through September, and another 9.9 from Oct-Dec, for 19.8 million for 2007, and 23 million total. (I'm calculating base levels of demand, not saying Nintendo can or will produce that many units). Given the near-complete sell-outs, I'll estimate demand is at least 10% beyond that, and can say with total conviction that demand is there to sell well over 25 million units by the end of this year. Assuming that more games, that hit more audiences, with decreasing prices, increases the demand for the console, and seeing clearly that there isn't demand to do even 10 million units a year of either 360 or PS3 (meaning Wii will quickly have no competition), I can say with total conviction that all Nintendo needs to do is follow through on their promise of continually providing audience-expanding software to make Wii the best-selling home console of all time. Think I'm nuts? Wait. And. See.

There's 2 other consoles that launched just like Wii, with a pack-in the calibur of Wii Sports. One was the NES, with Super Mario Bros. (US release). The other was Game Boy, with Tetris. Both of those systems were outdated the first day they hit shelves. Both creamed multiple generations of competition.


Um..at the end there you brought up the NES and the Game Boy?Those consoles had ABSOLUTELY no competition when they released.The other problem is you console sales estimates do not consider that the Wii is very affordable to all people right now.There will be Price cuts for all 3 systems but the Wii is already viewed as very affordable so i am not sure if a price cut will increase numbers of systems sold.The PS3 will probly gain the most from a price cut....People will have a Bargain system at the Wii level and a "cutting edge system"with the PS3.I do think this generation will last a bit longer than last gen did....Microsoft may have to jump the gun this time too though but I think the PS3 will be able to last 7 years to Microsofts 360's 4 or 5 and maybe both nintendo and microsoft launch a new system then but the PS3 will be far from outdated they will already be running in HD format the games will look amazing still.and I think with the evelution of the Eye toy for the PS3 it will have Motion sensing with your whole body it should be able to detect depth so gameplay inovations will be there.but in no way do I see the Wii staying for 10-12 years tech wise as it is games that come out for the Wii that are not fully Wii remote functional will continue to see release on the PS2 as well so If the Wii lasts 10 years and the games are not all Wii remote revolving games how long would that keep the PS2 around (if I was Sony I would be hittin Nintendo with Multi colored editions of the PS2 It works for Nintendo I really think that several diferent colors of the PS2 with the eye toy would get some casual people buying PS2's $ they could have spent on the Wii)Use the PS2 to compete with Wii and Isolate next gen competition to the 360

It's sales and profitability that determine how long a system lasts, not how powerful the tech is, or how it is shown off.

And you honestly think that developers are only going to make Wii games as long as they are also on the PS2? Development for the PS2 has been slowing down lately. It's still being sold, but lasing ten years just means it's still on sale, with occasional games, not a constant stream. The PS1 may have lasted ten years, but it was not a factor in the 6th gen, as you are trying to spin the PS2 into being a factor this gen. Developers are making PS2 games into Wii games as a form of catch-up.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

Shane on 12 April 2007

I think N64 range is a pretty fair estimate for Microsoft as well. They just haven't been aggressive enough with this headstart and really haven't caught on too well anywhere but the US. Sony's the only company with a shot of approaching PS1/2 levels, but even they will most likely be down this generation.

I don't see Nintendo rushing out another console, whether they need to or not. They'll be more than happy to let Microsoft have another headstart. Nintendo will be pushed by Sony, not Microsoft.

As much talk as there is of casual gamers, Sony's traditionally been the company to appeal to them. I'm not convinced the casual gamer impact has been much at all for Nintendo. It just doesn't make any logical sense for casual gamers to be buying systems this early in a system's life. For every soccer mom, you've got 10 fanboys looking for the next Mario. Not to say they won't necessarily be able to appeal to a broader group eventually, but how many people who are just borderline interested are going to go through the trouble of getting something unless it's in stock?

Wii sales have peaked. Will Wii ever have a December as big as the last one in Europe or Japan again? Will Wii ever have a Q1 globally as big as this last one? That's not necessarily a bad thing, as it launched very well, but being realistic, it did step on its best foot first.

Are predictions made entirely on the basis of the first few months of sales of a new system even worth commenting on?



windbane on 12 April 2007
HappySqurriel said:

Another thing to consider is that the Wii's graphics have hit a point which is "Good Enough" for many genres and art styles:

 
 
 
 
 
   

Certainly, you can improve on the quality of these graphics quite dramatically but how much do you really benefit? Much like comics and cartoons it is often more appropriate to represent something in a less realistic fashion than a more realistic one. Now I know someone's going to make the connection that "Cartoons and Comics are Kiddie" but much like South Park, The Simpsons, Spawn and most graphic novels that are being turned into movies lately being less realistic allows you to push the boundries with less risk that a realist representation.


Better graphics don't have to mean more realistic.  The more powerful systems aren't just about graphics either, they are about processing power and hard drive space (well, 1 at least) to be able to do things faster and do more at a time.  I think that the current difference in overall power of the systems is greater than any previous generation in which all the consoles are viable options (which excludes 3DO and Neo Geo).  The Wii may "win" this generation but there is plenty of room for the other 2 to show off things that the Wii can't.



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windbane on 12 April 2007

I'd like to agree with those that say HD-TVs aren't very important for this generation.  I can tell the graphics on Resistance and Motorstorm are better on my SD-TV.  I can tell the water is very nice looking in Elder Scrolls.  I don't need an HD-TV to see the graphics are better.  I fail to understand how people keep saying you have to have an HD-TV to play the next gen consoles.  You don't.  I've seen them on HD, and sure it looks better, but you can still clearly tell that PS3 and 360 games look better than Wii games on any TV.  Even black and white TVs.  The more clear the TV, the better anything looks, but you can still tell on SD.

When HD-TVs drop down to a level that I want to pay for a larger screen than I already have, then I'll consider it.  Until then, I'll still enjoy the fantastic graphics on my SD-TV. 



HappySqurriel on 12 April 2007
windbane said:
HappySqurriel said:

Another thing to consider is that the Wii's graphics have hit a point which is "Good Enough" for many genres and art styles:

 
 
 
 
 
   

Certainly, you can improve on the quality of these graphics quite dramatically but how much do you really benefit? Much like comics and cartoons it is often more appropriate to represent something in a less realistic fashion than a more realistic one. Now I know someone's going to make the connection that "Cartoons and Comics are Kiddie" but much like South Park, The Simpsons, Spawn and most graphic novels that are being turned into movies lately being less realistic allows you to push the boundries with less risk that a realist representation.


Better graphics don't have to mean more realistic.  The more powerful systems aren't just about graphics either, they are about processing power and hard drive space (well, 1 at least) to be able to do things faster and do more at a time.  I think that the current difference in overall power of the systems is greater than any previous generation in which all the consoles are viable options (which excludes 3DO and Neo Geo).  The Wii may "win" this generation but there is plenty of room for the other 2 to show off things that the Wii can't.


There are other benefits to higher processing power but the main one is better graphics ...

My main point was that (at about the time the Dreamcast was released) we hit a point where you could express practically everything you wanted to in a videogame and from that point on it is all about progressive refinement. The Wii has enough power to produce some pretty nice graphics, good AI and decent physics (no where near as good as the XBox 360 or PS3 but nice enough for many games).

On a side note, even though the Playstation and N64 were probably closer as a ratio of performance I would argue that the impact of that difference was far greater than the difference between the Wii and XBox 360/PS3. Back in 1994 through about 1998 you had to upgrade your computer every 9 to 12 months to continue playing videogames and there was a drastic difference between what was available every year. Today people are updating their computers at a much slower rate and most games have not really changed that much since (about) 2001/2002.



Hus on 12 April 2007

3 years.. max 4

 

 



SpaceJase on 12 April 2007

Apologies if this has already been said but the minute the Wii sales start to slow down due to lack of HD support... cue HD Wii with total backwards compatibility!

Seems to me that Nintendo have learned from their previous mistakes. MS and PS3 both pushed for too much to soon in terms of hardware.

 I really don't want to sound like a fanboy but its nice to see the non gaming companies take a lesson. Games are about F U N . Don't forget it again!



LordTheNightKnight on 12 April 2007
Shane said:

I think N64 range is a pretty fair estimate for Microsoft as well. They just haven't been aggressive enough with this headstart and really haven't caught on too well anywhere but the US. Sony's the only company with a shot of approaching PS1/2 levels, but even they will most likely be down this generation.

I don't see Nintendo rushing out another console, whether they need to or not. They'll be more than happy to let Microsoft have another headstart. Nintendo will be pushed by Sony, not Microsoft.

As much talk as there is of casual gamers, Sony's traditionally been the company to appeal to them. I'm not convinced the casual gamer impact has been much at all for Nintendo. It just doesn't make any logical sense for casual gamers to be buying systems this early in a system's life. For every soccer mom, you've got 10 fanboys looking for the next Mario. Not to say they won't necessarily be able to appeal to a broader group eventually, but how many people who are just borderline interested are going to go through the trouble of getting something unless it's in stock?

Wii sales have peaked. Will Wii ever have a December as big as the last one in Europe or Japan again? Will Wii ever have a Q1 globally as big as this last one? That's not necessarily a bad thing, as it launched very well, but being realistic, it did step on its best foot first.

Are predictions made entirely on the basis of the first few months of sales of a new system even worth commenting on?

Assuming the last part is true, your prediction of the Wii peaking is no more credible.

A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs