I think N64 range is a pretty fair estimate for Microsoft as well. They just haven't been aggressive enough with this headstart and really haven't caught on too well anywhere but the US. Sony's the only company with a shot of approaching PS1/2 levels, but even they will most likely be down this generation.
I don't see Nintendo rushing out another console, whether they need to or not. They'll be more than happy to let Microsoft have another headstart. Nintendo will be pushed by Sony, not Microsoft.
As much talk as there is of casual gamers, Sony's traditionally been the company to appeal to them. I'm not convinced the casual gamer impact has been much at all for Nintendo. It just doesn't make any logical sense for casual gamers to be buying systems this early in a system's life. For every soccer mom, you've got 10 fanboys looking for the next Mario. Not to say they won't necessarily be able to appeal to a broader group eventually, but how many people who are just borderline interested are going to go through the trouble of getting something unless it's in stock?
Wii sales have peaked. Will Wii ever have a December as big as the last one in Europe or Japan again? Will Wii ever have a Q1 globally as big as this last one? That's not necessarily a bad thing, as it launched very well, but being realistic, it did step on its best foot first.
Are predictions made entirely on the basis of the first few months of sales of a new system even worth commenting on?
