Lifespan of the Wii?

[LordTheNightKnight]

NorthStar said:

Erik Aston said:

Well, his predictions are no more ridiculous than your own, really. ;>

This gen is unpredictable, really anything could happen. 360 could suddenly take off this Xmas and never look back. Wii could keep selling out for the next 2 years and generate unheard of sales. PS3 could keep slowly building steam until suddenly everyone wakes up and realizes it sold 100M again.

The videogame market is entirely predictable, and there is nothing ridiculous about my predictions.

Usually videogames sell 1/2 of their yearly sales in the Xmas quarter. Given that sales went from 3.2 million to 6.5 million in 3 months, we can see that sales are at about 1.1 million/month WW right now. That means 9.9 million through September, and another 9.9 from Oct-Dec, for 19.8 million for 2007, and 23 million total. (I'm calculating base levels of demand, not saying Nintendo can or will produce that many units). Given the near-complete sell-outs, I'll estimate demand is at least 10% beyond that, and can say with total conviction that demand is there to sell well over 25 million units by the end of this year. Assuming that more games, that hit more audiences, with decreasing prices, increases the demand for the console, and seeing clearly that there isn't demand to do even 10 million units a year of either 360 or PS3 (meaning Wii will quickly have no competition), I can say with total conviction that all Nintendo needs to do is follow through on their promise of continually providing audience-expanding software to make Wii the best-selling home console of all time. Think I'm nuts? Wait. And. See.

There's 2 other consoles that launched just like Wii, with a pack-in the calibur of Wii Sports. One was the NES, with Super Mario Bros. (US release). The other was Game Boy, with Tetris. Both of those systems were outdated the first day they hit shelves. Both creamed multiple generations of competition.

Um..at the end there you brought up the NES and the Game Boy?Those consoles had ABSOLUTELY no competition when they released.The other problem is you console sales estimates do not consider that the Wii is very affordable to all people right now.There will be Price cuts for all 3 systems but the Wii is already viewed as very affordable so i am not sure if a price cut will increase numbers of systems sold.The PS3 will probly gain the most from a price cut....People will have a Bargain system at the Wii level and a "cutting edge system"with the PS3.I do think this generation will last a bit longer than last gen did....Microsoft may have to jump the gun this time too though but I think the PS3 will be able to last 7 years to Microsofts 360's 4 or 5 and maybe both nintendo and microsoft launch a new system then but the PS3 will be far from outdated they will already be running in HD format the games will look amazing still.and I think with the evelution of the Eye toy for the PS3 it will have Motion sensing with your whole body it should be able to detect depth so gameplay inovations will be there.but in no way do I see the Wii staying for 10-12 years tech wise as it is games that come out for the Wii that are not fully Wii remote functional will continue to see release on the PS2 as well so If the Wii lasts 10 years and the games are not all Wii remote revolving games how long would that keep the PS2 around (if I was Sony I would be hittin Nintendo with Multi colored editions of the PS2 It works for Nintendo I really think that several diferent colors of the PS2 with the eye toy would get some casual people buying PS2's $ they could have spent on the Wii)Use the PS2 to compete with Wii and Isolate next gen competition to the 360

It's sales and profitability that determine how long a system lasts, not how powerful the tech is, or how it is shown off.

And you honestly think that developers are only going to make Wii games as long as they are also on the PS2? Development for the PS2 has been slowing down lately. It's still being sold, but lasing ten years just means it's still on sale, with occasional games, not a constant stream. The PS1 may have lasted ten years, but it was not a factor in the 6th gen, as you are trying to spin the PS2 into being a factor this gen. Developers are making PS2 games into Wii games as a form of catch-up.