Lifespan of the Wii?

[robjoh]

davygee said:

Erik Aston said:

I'm predicting not only 80-100 million sales, but 150 million sales. And a lifespan of at least 6 years, and possibly 10-12 years.

 Oh dear....

 

Actuly the only problem I see with Erik Aston statement is that the consol might become 10-12 years old. The rest is actuly spot on, for many people Wii = Wii Sport, and I must say that I don't get the reason why you would need HD for that game.

 

Looking at the "last-gen" we see that PS2 is still selling strong both in USA and EU, reason Buzz, singstar and guitarr hero. Casual games, this means that if Wii continue to sell well and takes the lead in early 2008, we could find us in the same situation. A consol that is fueld by casual gamers, which Wii partly already is. Now if casual games (Rayman, Wario, Wii Play, Wii Sport etc) continue to sell well on Wii, you will see more of these games for Wii both from Nintendo and 3rd parties, leading to that Wii will win the casual crowd. If that happens and the price of the Wii will get even lower I really wonder why it would be impossible to sell 80-100 millions. I also wonder why a life spann of 6-7 years should be impossible, that would be enough with 5 years as Nintendos primary consol and two years of continue sells for 99 USD to the casual crowd. I did never belive that Wii Sport would be such of an hit, but it is, and if Mii games can fuel the sales then HD is of no importance.

 

I also belive that xbox360 will sell more than 20 million because 360 wont be a 4 years consol, I would say that it is profit or bust. The same thing can be said about PS3, it is to expensive to just make it a 5 year consol. Both Microsoft and Sony needs to extend their lifespann as far as possible to regain early loss, this in turn will lead to that Nintendo doesn't need a new consol 2010.