Well, let's take a pessimistic view then.

Every single copy of Wii fit had the balance board in, and that's now sitting at  22.70 million, according to VGChartz.

Now let's assume that only, I dunno, 40% of Wii Fit Plus sales included the Balance Board? Because after Wii Git Plus was released, Wii Fit was taken off sale, and people still want that board. So that's roughly an additional 10 million, so we reach 32.70 million, or around 33million.

Don't need to assume anything, somebody up there said 34 mill, so it's probably in the 35 million region now. Lifetime sales could reach as high as 50, or simmer down now and hit 40 million.

Like I said, it's quite a pessimistic view

But Wii Fit plus is still selling, and, as already mentioned, people still want that balance board. And, with very few signs of decline, it will probably reach around 23million LT (pessimistic remember), bringing, using similar logic, the total number of Balance Board sales to around 36million

Now, Kinect is sitting at around 8.25million right now, so, to overtake Wii Fit's balance board in this pessimistic view, it needs another...27.75million. There's quite a clear downward trend after the holidays,

No. Fucking.Shit. Do you know how sales work? Really? How long have you been on the site. Sales always go down after christmas. Kinect sold 190k last week not 40k ...

I'm well aware of how sales work, yes. All games drop off steeply, however, the drop-off was far steeper than anyone expected. For example, it was one of the game predictions I set up for last month, the closest person sales-wise was still 200k too high. So the drop-off was expected, but steeper.

And let's tone down the swearing please. There are still young users on the site

with only 40k sold last week. Let's assume sales hit an average of 25-30k per week in about 5 weeks time, increasing to around about 250k a week for the 10 weeks up to the end of the year. That makes it around about 1 million upto these 10 weeks, then 2.5million in the last 10 weeks, making this year's sales around 3.5million-4million, raising this total to 12million.

Where are you getting these awful figures from??? Kinect shipped 8 million in 8 weeks last year and you think it's only going to ship 4 mill for this entire YEAR? It's going to ship/sell at least 2.5 million Q1 alone. It'll be approaching 20 million by the end of the year. Dude if you're gonna reply at least use the right figures.

...from here?

http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/45608/kinect-adventures/

Admittadly, that was my fault. I saw the latest sales and thought it was for WW, but it's only for EMEAA. So let's up that prediction then. Let's say, I dunno, down to around 80k a week then. That's still under 8million though, and then probably 5 million next year. Which is still very far under exceeding Wii Fit's sales.

That's only a third of the balance board's sales LT. Assuming the drop off increases, and goes down to around 15-20k a week, with 150k in the holidays, we can add another 2.5mil, raising sales to 14.5million. At around this time, the sales of the 360 will have really cooled down, including those of Kinect, due to a new Console by Microsoft or Nintendo (probably not Sony). So, in a pessimistic view, Kinect will end up with around half of the balance board's LT sales, if it's lucky. But there's no way under any circumstances I can see it outselling the Balance Board

So, my answer is "no" sadly  

If we're gonna do it like this...

I hope that clears things up

...pessimistic predictions? What if it doesn't stop decreasing in sales? We don't know how it'll fare yet. 

Still, in all honestly, 10mil is more likely, But no higher. Really, 10 million for the second year of ANY game is amazing

10 million is the minimum, please stop it hurts. You havn't got the first clue have you?

First of it's not a GAME. It's closer to a console for goodness sakes. It's HW with a SW library, that's going to get impactful price cuts, it's own advertising ect ect.

It's not going to do significantly worse next xmas, that's your wishful thinking.

THIS is pessimistic.

Q4 - 8 mill
Q1 - 2.5 mill
Q2 - 1.5 mill
Q3 - 2 mill
Q4 - 6 mill

Total - 20 mill end of 2011.

I'd say that's optimistic. But, we'll see

(You reckon it'll outsell every console this year pretty much? That I doubt)

Still, this wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong about Kinect