Well kinect had Xbox 360 bundles compared to Wii Fit, it has a 'chance' to surpase the original Wii Fit. It won't however surpase Wii Fit franchise or the balance board. I highly doubt original users of Wii Fit bought Wii Fit Plus disc exceeding 5 million.

You're also forgetting that Wii Fit Plus is selling very close to kinect in EMEAA and it's older. Wii Fit Plus has yet to be bundled outside of EMEAA and if it were to be bundled in Japan and America, sales would explode which would rival Kinects' numbers.  Wii Fit Plus has also yet to have a price cut. These are factors that can't be ignored. You didn't include them for obvious reasons

If you're gonna reply actually come up with something that refutes my post. Wii Fit Plus is selling, but you have no idea what the userbase is. It could be anywhere from 25 to 40 million. Kinect will surpass 20 million this year with ease (really if you don't think it will do the figures without bias interfering) after that, it's not going to flop like people expect it too. Until Nintendo give figures on the Balance board you're only saying it won't because, well obvious reasons

There is no way to tell right now, if Balance board is at 30 million sales, and they don't do a sequel for whatever reason, Wii fit sales will slowly simmer down. Kinect is a very different peice of HW. It's going to have meaningful price cuts, SW pushes the Wii fit never saw, and most of all massive support from Microsoft, they want this to be big everywhere. All those factors can't be ignored.

Lets break down what your assuming there.

only 2.3 million people bought a balance board apart from with the original Wii Fit (ludicrous)

No, I said 25 - 40, so it's equally ludicrus to think every Wii Fitt Plus owner is new and brought a balance board with it, with no figures it's impossible to tell. Thankfully someone posted that 34 mill figure.

Kinect will have great software support (no evidence so far)
Yes there is, a lot of SW is coming.

Kinect will have meaningful price cuts (Because Microsoft love selling their addons at low prices?)
Not at first no, but Kinect isn't LIKE their other addon, it's going to sell like a console, that's the closest you can compare it too, not another add on. Sooner people get this the sooner they'll start making realistic expectations on what Kinect will sell lifetime.

Balance board will have no further large support (moderately likely)

Balance Board legs will suddenly die (shows no intention of doing so currently, Wii Fit Plus sold 3 million in 6 weeks over christmas time)

I didn't say suddenly, I said they'll simmer down, along with lower wii sales, this is common sense.

Balance Board/Wii Fit Plus will not have any significant price cut (untill the release of Wii2, very likely, after the release of Wii2, very unlikely to be the case, price cut is practically guarenteed)

Sorry, you make a huge list of unreasonable outcomes assumptions, and the best conclusion you can draw, even with those assumptions made is that Kinect has a chance.

yeah, I'm not saying Kinect will overtake balance board, there are TOO many variables. Right now I give it a 40% chance, but it's stupid to peg it as either "definitely" or "absoloutely not"

Has Nintendo even released figures for the Balance Board, why are people adding up Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus numbers and coming out with the total amount of balance boards lol.

Regardless, we'll see how Kinect sells this year, it'll have another xmas on par with last year though, so it'll easily surpass 20 million by the end of the year.

And the sales won't die then either ...

Well, let's take a pessimistic view then.

Every single copy of Wii fit had the balance board in, and that's now sitting at  22.70 million, according to VGChartz.

Now let's assume that only, I dunno, 40% of Wii Fit Plus sales included the Balance Board? Because after Wii Git Plus was released, Wii Fit was taken off sale, and people still want that board. So that's roughly an additional 10 million, so we reach 32.70 million, or around 33million.

Don't need to assume anything, somebody up there said 34 mill, so it's probably in the 35 million region now. Lifetime sales could reach as high as 50, or simmer down now and hit 40 million.

But Wii Fit plus is still selling, and, as already mentioned, people still want that balance board. And, with very few signs of decline, it will probably reach around 23million LT (pessimistic remember), bringing, using similar logic, the total number of Balance Board sales to around 36million

Now, Kinect is sitting at around 8.25million right now, so, to overtake Wii Fit's balance board in this pessimistic view, it needs another...27.75million. There's quite a clear downward trend after the holidays,

No. Fucking.Shit. Do you know how sales work? Really? How long have you been on the site. Sales always go down after christmas. Kinect sold 190k last week not 40k ...

with only 40k sold last week. Let's assume sales hit an average of 25-30k per week in about 5 weeks time, increasing to around about 250k a week for the 10 weeks up to the end of the year. That makes it around about 1 million upto these 10 weeks, then 2.5million in the last 10 weeks, making this year's sales around 3.5million-4million, raising this total to 12million.

Where are you getting these awful figures from??? Kinect shipped 8 million in 8 weeks last year and you think it's only going to ship 4 mill for this entire YEAR? It's going to ship/sell at least 2.5 million Q1 alone. It'll be approaching 20 million by the end of the year. Dude if you're gonna reply at least use the right figures.

That's only a third of the balance board's sales LT. Assuming the drop off increases, and goes down to around 15-20k a week, with 150k in the holidays, we can add another 2.5mil, raising sales to 14.5million. At around this time, the sales of the 360 will have really cooled down, including those of Kinect, due to a new Console by Microsoft or Nintendo (probably not Sony). So, in a pessimistic view, Kinect will end up with around half of the balance board's LT sales, if it's lucky. But there's no way under any circumstances I can see it outselling the Balance Board

So, my answer is "no" sadly  

If we're gonna do it like this...

I hope that clears things up