Will Kinect outsell the Balance Board?

[Conegamer]

Seece said:

Has Nintendo even released figures for the Balance Board, why are people adding up Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus numbers and coming out with the total amount of balance boards lol.

Regardless, we'll see how Kinect sells this year, it'll have another xmas on par with last year though, so it'll easily surpass 20 million by the end of the year.

And the sales won't die then either ...

Well, let's take a pessimistic view then.

Every single copy of Wii fit had the balance board in, and that's now sitting at  22.70 million, according to VGChartz.

Now let's assume that only, I dunno, 40% of Wii Fit Plus sales included the Balance Board? Because after Wii Git Plus was released, Wii Fit was taken off sale, and people still want that board. So that's roughly an additional 10 million, so we reach 32.70 million, or around 33million. 

But Wii Fit plus is still selling, and, as already mentioned, people still want that balance board. And, with very few signs of decline, it will probably reach around 23million LT (pessimistic remember), bringing, using similar logic, the total number of Balance Board sales to around 36million

Now, Kinect is sitting at around 8.25million right now, so, to overtake Wii Fit's balance board in this pessimistic view, it needs another...27.75million. There's quite a clear downward trend after the holidays, with only 40k sold last week. Let's assume sales hit an average of 25-30k per week in about 5 weeks time, increasing to around about 250k a week for the 10 weeks up to the end of the year. That makes it around about 1 million upto these 10 weeks, then 2.5million in the last 10 weeks, making this year's sales around 3.5million-4million, raising this total to 12million. That's only a third of the balance board's sales LT. Assuming the drop off increases, and goes down to around 15-20k a week, with 150k in the holidays, we can add another 2.5mil, raising sales to 14.5million. At around this time, the sales of the 360 will have really cooled down, including those of Kinect, due to a new Console by Microsoft or Nintendo (probably not Sony). So, in a pessimistic view, Kinect will end up with around half of the balance board's LT sales, if it's lucky. But there's no way under any circumstances I can see it outselling the Balance Board

So, my answer is "no" sadly