scottie said:
Seece said:
dany612 said:
Wii Fit Plus keeps on selling. So no chance.
|
If you're gonna reply actually come up with something that refutes my post. Wii Fit Plus is selling, but you have no idea what the userbase is. It could be anywhere from 25 to 40 million. Kinect will surpass 20 million this year with ease (really if you don't think it will do the figures without bias interfering) after that, it's not going to flop like people expect it too. Until Nintendo give figures on the Balance board you're only saying it won't because, well obvious reasons 
There is no way to tell right now, if Balance board is at 30 million sales, and they don't do a sequel for whatever reason, Wii fit sales will slowly simmer down. Kinect is a very different peice of HW. It's going to have meaningful price cuts, SW pushes the Wii fit never saw, and most of all massive support from Microsoft, they want this to be big everywhere. All those factors can't be ignored.
|
Lets break down what your assuming there.
only 2.3 million people bought a balance board apart from with the original Wii Fit (ludicrous)
No, I said 25 - 40, so it's equally ludicrus to think every Wii Fitt Plus owner is new and brought a balance board with it, with no figures it's impossible to tell. Thankfully someone posted that 34 mill figure.
Kinect will have great software support (no evidence so far)
Yes there is, a lot of SW is coming.
Kinect will have meaningful price cuts (Because Microsoft love selling their addons at low prices?)
Not at first no, but Kinect isn't LIKE their other addon, it's going to sell like a console, that's the closest you can compare it too, not another add on. Sooner people get this the sooner they'll start making realistic expectations on what Kinect will sell lifetime.
Balance board will have no further large support (moderately likely)
Balance Board legs will suddenly die (shows no intention of doing so currently, Wii Fit Plus sold 3 million in 6 weeks over christmas time)
I didn't say suddenly, I said they'll simmer down, along with lower wii sales, this is common sense.
Balance Board/Wii Fit Plus will not have any significant price cut (untill the release of Wii2, very likely, after the release of Wii2, very unlikely to be the case, price cut is practically guarenteed)
Sorry, you make a huge list of unreasonable outcomes assumptions, and the best conclusion you can draw, even with those assumptions made is that Kinect has a chance.
yeah, I'm not saying Kinect will overtake balance board, there are TOO many variables. Right now I give it a 40% chance, but it's stupid to peg it as either "definitely" or "absoloutely not"
|
