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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

 

Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

Best Selling Gran Turismo 939 37.95%
 
2nd Best Selling Gran Turismo 494 19.97%
 
3rd Best Selling Gran Turismo 389 15.72%
 
4th Best Selling Gran Turismo 116 4.69%
 
The Worst Selling Gran Turismo 536 21.67%
 
Total:2,474
John_Doe on 18 October 2010

more than 15 million is a dream. It will sell like GT4 at best, I think



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brendude13 on 18 October 2010

I hope it sells very well...and break 10m...its about time everybody stopped playing Modern Warfare 2...



extremeloco on 18 October 2010

My prediction 11-14 millin life time, just the demo of GT5 sold almost 5 million acording to the devleopers polphony digital and i belive theres over a million people out there waiting to go buy a ps3 as soon as GT5 hits shelves



Michael-5 on 18 October 2010
zgamer5 said:
Michael-5 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?

GT4 Prologue outsold GT5 Prologue in Japan by 220k (38.6%), and it was only released 1 year before GT4, where GT5P was released 2 years before GT5.

Also GT5 is being released late into the consoles life (similar time to when GT2 and GT4 were launched after the launch of the console). Without an early GT on the PS3, GT5P had no competition, and still was outsold by GT4P, which had GT3 as competition (In Japan, the only real region GT4P came out).

So I'm betting 8.5 million. It will do worse then similarly timed GT games, but only by 1-2 million. 15% weaker sales is reasonable.

P.S. GT4P was released in Europe, only a single month before the launch of GT4, and not in all EMEAA regions. So don't look at that data and think "But GT5P did soo much better in EMEAA."

P.P.S. GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P, so if GT5 does that same, thats 8 million.

lol at the pps.

gt4p sold how much 1 million? gt4 sold almost 11 million. thats not 60% :P

If you read my post, I was only comparing Japanese sales, as GT4P essentially was only released in Japan.

Yes GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P there, and GT5P sold worse in Japan then GT4P, despite having 2 years to sell instead of just 1.



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Michael-5 on 18 October 2010
postofficebuddy said:
Michael-5 said:

Wow 44% of people here beleive GT5 will outsell GT3. Shows you where the general loyalties are at, on this website.

If you look at GT sales data, GT games never sell that well in Americas, GT3 was an odd exception, where it sold just as well in other regions as other GT games, but did 3 times better in Americas. Looking at Pre-orders, GT5 sales will not mimic GT3 sales in Americas.

So it's very unlikely that GT5 will outsell GT3. I mean in order for GT5 to sell 7 million in America's region, 1 in every 2 PSW3 owners would have to get the game. Just not going to happen, no game gets 50% attach rates, unless it's bundled with the console for a very very long time (like Wii Sports).

I voted worst selling GT5 game. I just can't see how GT5 could outsell any prior GT game when there is stronger competition out there then ever before, and when the PS3 lifetime will only have sold half as many consoles as PS2, and about 2/3rds as much as PS1. Also GT1 and GT3, the 2 best selling GT games, were released early into the consoles life. GT5 is being released very late into the consoles life, so I think it will more likely match GT2 and GT4 trends, and still fall short by a million or two.


I'm not saying that GT5 will beat GT3 but there are numerous examples of games having very high attach ratios. PES 2010 has something like a 30% attach ratio in Latin America. GOW3 has about a 20% attach ratio in Canada and something like a 33% attach ratio in India (~25k sales, 75k install base). In some of the smaller regions I wholly expect GT5 to have close to a 50% attach ratio. Lack of piracy, or at least wide-spread piracy, is going to help GT5 out tremendously. My prediction is that non-USA Americas sales is 600k. Which wouldn't even be that big in Canada if Sony hit their projection of 3 million there by the end of 2011.

Those high attach rate trends are limited to small regions. No PS3 game has a crazy high attach rate in all regions.

Attach rate arguements are really silly, I mean GT1 and GT3 sold more then GT2 and GT4 on a smaller install base. Halo Reach is ouselling Halo 3 on a weekly basis, and it's attach rate is much much lower then all previous Halo games.

However, since you bring up this silly arguement, GT5 would need to see a worldwide attach rate of 25% to sell 10 million units as it is now, and assuming PS3 finishes with 70 million consoles sold, GT5 lifetime sales would need to be about 14%. Currently, the highest attach rate exclusive will likely be Halo: Reach (12.5 million lifetime sales on a console selling 70 million lifetime is about 18%)

Possible, but unlikely IMO, especially since all GT console games have never seen more then 11% lifetime attach rates, and that includes the mega GT3. 

Also 50%? Are you crazy? Name one non bundled game that had an attach rate that high? Pokemon, Halo, Mario, all fail at that, the highest attach rates they have ever seen would be in the range of 30-35%Why would GT succeed where EVERYTHING ELSE has failed?



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Toddifer on 18 October 2010

I think it'll top 10 million, but not much more than that. It should have incredible staying power, though, and sell quite well for a good, long time and have an excellent shelf life. Had it launched earlier in the generation, perhaps that would have allowed for greater sales over an even longer period, maybe?



Bah!

zgamer5 on 18 October 2010
Michael-5 said:
zgamer5 said:
Michael-5 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?

GT4 Prologue outsold GT5 Prologue in Japan by 220k (38.6%), and it was only released 1 year before GT4, where GT5P was released 2 years before GT5.

Also GT5 is being released late into the consoles life (similar time to when GT2 and GT4 were launched after the launch of the console). Without an early GT on the PS3, GT5P had no competition, and still was outsold by GT4P, which had GT3 as competition (In Japan, the only real region GT4P came out).

So I'm betting 8.5 million. It will do worse then similarly timed GT games, but only by 1-2 million. 15% weaker sales is reasonable.

P.S. GT4P was released in Europe, only a single month before the launch of GT4, and not in all EMEAA regions. So don't look at that data and think "But GT5P did soo much better in EMEAA."

P.P.S. GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P, so if GT5 does that same, thats 8 million.

lol at the pps.

gt4p sold how much 1 million? gt4 sold almost 11 million. thats not 60% :P

If you read my post, I was only comparing Japanese sales, as GT4P essentially was only released in Japan.

Yes GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P there, and GT5P sold worse in Japan then GT4P, despite having 2 years to sell instead of just 1.

true but you said 8 million.  or is it 0.8 million?



Being in 3rd place never felt so good

ethomaz on 18 October 2010
Michael-5 said:
zgamer5 said:
Michael-5 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?

GT4 Prologue outsold GT5 Prologue in Japan by 220k (38.6%), and it was only released 1 year before GT4, where GT5P was released 2 years before GT5.

Also GT5 is being released late into the consoles life (similar time to when GT2 and GT4 were launched after the launch of the console). Without an early GT on the PS3, GT5P had no competition, and still was outsold by GT4P, which had GT3 as competition (In Japan, the only real region GT4P came out).

So I'm betting 8.5 million. It will do worse then similarly timed GT games, but only by 1-2 million. 15% weaker sales is reasonable.

P.S. GT4P was released in Europe, only a single month before the launch of GT4, and not in all EMEAA regions. So don't look at that data and think "But GT5P did soo much better in EMEAA."

P.P.S. GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P, so if GT5 does that same, thats 8 million.

lol at the pps.

gt4p sold how much 1 million? gt4 sold almost 11 million. thats not 60% :P

If you read my post, I was only comparing Japanese sales, as GT4P essentially was only released in Japan.

Yes GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P there, and GT5P sold worse in Japan then GT4P, despite having 2 years to sell instead of just 1.

By Polyphony Digital (because PS2 games sales from VGC is not accurate):

Japan

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 790k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 740k
Gran Turismo 4: 1,270k

Europe

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 450k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 2,940k
Gran Turismo 4: 6,560k

Asia

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 160k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 110k
Gran Turismo 4: 170k

North America

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: Unreleased
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 1,160k
Gran Turismo 4: 3,050k

What's Your Point?



DevDas on 18 October 2010

GT <6 mill lifetym. Please do quote me on this .Gone are GT days



postofficebuddy on 18 October 2010
Michael-5 said:
postofficebuddy said:
Michael-5 said:

Wow 44% of people here beleive GT5 will outsell GT3. Shows you where the general loyalties are at, on this website.

If you look at GT sales data, GT games never sell that well in Americas, GT3 was an odd exception, where it sold just as well in other regions as other GT games, but did 3 times better in Americas. Looking at Pre-orders, GT5 sales will not mimic GT3 sales in Americas.

So it's very unlikely that GT5 will outsell GT3. I mean in order for GT5 to sell 7 million in America's region, 1 in every 2 PSW3 owners would have to get the game. Just not going to happen, no game gets 50% attach rates, unless it's bundled with the console for a very very long time (like Wii Sports).

I voted worst selling GT5 game. I just can't see how GT5 could outsell any prior GT game when there is stronger competition out there then ever before, and when the PS3 lifetime will only have sold half as many consoles as PS2, and about 2/3rds as much as PS1. Also GT1 and GT3, the 2 best selling GT games, were released early into the consoles life. GT5 is being released very late into the consoles life, so I think it will more likely match GT2 and GT4 trends, and still fall short by a million or two.


I'm not saying that GT5 will beat GT3 but there are numerous examples of games having very high attach ratios. PES 2010 has something like a 30% attach ratio in Latin America. GOW3 has about a 20% attach ratio in Canada and something like a 33% attach ratio in India (~25k sales, 75k install base). In some of the smaller regions I wholly expect GT5 to have close to a 50% attach ratio. Lack of piracy, or at least wide-spread piracy, is going to help GT5 out tremendously. My prediction is that non-USA Americas sales is 600k. Which wouldn't even be that big in Canada if Sony hit their projection of 3 million there by the end of 2011.

Those high attach rate trends are limited to small regions. No PS3 game has a crazy high attach rate in all regions.

Attach rate arguements are really silly, I mean GT1 and GT3 sold more then GT2 and GT4 on a smaller install base. Halo Reach is ouselling Halo 3 on a weekly basis, and it's attach rate is much much lower then all previous Halo games.

However, since you bring up this silly arguement, GT5 would need to see a worldwide attach rate of 25% to sell 10 million units as it is now, and assuming PS3 finishes with 70 million consoles sold, GT5 lifetime sales would need to be about 14%. Currently, the highest attach rate exclusive will likely be Halo: Reach (12.5 million lifetime sales on a console selling 70 million lifetime is about 18%)

Possible, but unlikely IMO, especially since all GT console games have never seen more then 11% lifetime attach rates, and that includes the mega GT3. 

Also 50%? Are you crazy? Name one non bundled game that had an attach rate that high? Pokemon, Halo, Mario, all fail at that, the highest attach rates they have ever seen would be in the range of 30-35%Why would GT succeed where EVERYTHING ELSE has failed?


Take note, I said in the smaller regions. The PES Latin America number is an estimation, and a conservative one at that. According to vgc our LA install base is somewhere around 650k-700k and PES 2010 sold 600k in LA. I only put 150k-200k for the PS3 version as an estimate, considering the level of piracy down there it's probably even higher than that. And go check Super Mario 64, Super Smash Brothers Melee, and Ninja Gaiden sales in Japan. We're undertracking NG by a fair bit according to Famitsu, it's like 200k. Also I believe FF7 achieved about a 50% attach ratio in Japan for a brief period after launch. :edit: Actually I'm getting my games mixed up. It's Dead or Alive 3, not NG.



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