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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

 

Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

Best Selling Gran Turismo 939 37.95%
 
2nd Best Selling Gran Turismo 494 19.97%
 
3rd Best Selling Gran Turismo 389 15.72%
 
4th Best Selling Gran Turismo 116 4.69%
 
The Worst Selling Gran Turismo 536 21.67%
 
Total:2,474
darthdevidem01 said:

Actually they sold 5 Million of GT5 : Prologue


My bad :P



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VGhippy said:
darthdevidem01 said:
 

Actually they sold 5 Million of GT5 : Prologue


My bad :P

But you still have a point

They probably didn't get ALL their costs back from GT5 : Prologue

But even if they got 60% - 74%.....thats good enough because GT5 is gonna sell massively in itself.



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:

thats good enough because GT5 is gonna sell massively in itself.

Yeah it will. I'm predicting 8 or 9 million myself which is great for a racing game (or just about any game really)

I do wish they had managed to keep their early November release slot though it was a great holiday spot with not much else that week to bother it. Now it may have to launch in the tailwind of BlackOps =/

I'm more interested in the SLY trilogy anyway though :P



atma998 said:
darthdevidem01 said:

This generation we have seen the following:

DMC4 outsold DMC3 (multiplat but I believe the PS3 version alone would have too had it been exclusive)

MGS4 outsold MGS3 

GOW3 outsold GOW2

FF13 outsold FF12 (multiplat but the PS3 version alone did 4.3 Million and by the time it ends selling will be at 5 Million....so had it been exclusive the PS3 version alone would have done more)

The only exception is GTA4....

Otherwise we can see that the new iteration of a franchise outsells the last in the previous gen

However as GTA4 is the only exception I'll treat it as an anomaly, this is why I expect GT5 to outsell GT4 at the least! But if it doesn't it will still not be the lowest selling GT!!

Not really the only exception...

Most of Madden and FIFA games sold better on PS2.

Prince of Persia and Tom Clancy's franchises also sold better on PS2.

Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk's franchises sold better on PS2.

Star Wars games sold better on PS2.

WWE games sold better on PS2.

And... another huge racing game's franchise in the name of Need for Speed also sold way better on PS2.

And keep in mind that a lot of PS2 games aren't very weel tracked here.

In the end I think GT5 won't top 7-8 million LTD.

p.s. GoW III didnt outsold GoW II yet, it is currently at 3.03M, while GoW II is at 3.45M and GoW is at 3.74M. But I agree it will outsell it eventually. :)

All of those games have yearly iterations and while your point is noted, last gen what youre doing is essentially comparing the entire industries 3rd party sales on the best console (see: ONLY console) vs this gens split 3rd party sales on its weakest console, rendering that point invalid, imo.



steverhcp02 said:
atma998 said:
darthdevidem01 said:

This generation we have seen the following:

DMC4 outsold DMC3 (multiplat but I believe the PS3 version alone would have too had it been exclusive)

MGS4 outsold MGS3 

GOW3 outsold GOW2

FF13 outsold FF12 (multiplat but the PS3 version alone did 4.3 Million and by the time it ends selling will be at 5 Million....so had it been exclusive the PS3 version alone would have done more)

The only exception is GTA4....

Otherwise we can see that the new iteration of a franchise outsells the last in the previous gen

However as GTA4 is the only exception I'll treat it as an anomaly, this is why I expect GT5 to outsell GT4 at the least! But if it doesn't it will still not be the lowest selling GT!!

Not really the only exception...

Most of Madden and FIFA games sold better on PS2.

Prince of Persia and Tom Clancy's franchises also sold better on PS2.

Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk's franchises sold better on PS2.

Star Wars games sold better on PS2.

WWE games sold better on PS2.

And... another huge racing game's franchise in the name of Need for Speed also sold way better on PS2.

And keep in mind that a lot of PS2 games aren't very weel tracked here.

In the end I think GT5 won't top 7-8 million LTD.

p.s. GoW III didnt outsold GoW II yet, it is currently at 3.03M, while GoW II is at 3.45M and GoW is at 3.74M. But I agree it will outsell it eventually. :)

All of those games have yearly iterations and while your point is noted, last gen what youre doing is essentially comparing the entire industries 3rd party sales on the best console (see: ONLY console) vs this gens split 3rd party sales on its weakest console, rendering that point invalid, imo.

Exactly why I didn't even bother responding to him.

the games I said are much closer to GT5 in terms of "behaviour" than "yearly iterations".



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

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GT5 will fail at failing, it's gonna be huge, the fact that there were more PS2 when GT4 launched than PS3 with GT5 has nothing to do with sales, GT3 sold better right?



I think that this gen is diffirent than the previous one.

So, with this in mind I say GT5 will sell better than any PS3 exclusive but worse than any GT title.

I predict it will sell at around 8-9M copies.



ConnorJCP said:
zgamer5 said:

im thinking 7-9 million numbers. if it released last yeat it could have had a chance of getting to 9 million, but all of the delays hurt it.

another bad decision by sony.

Do you have any proof on that?
Or is that just a wild guess?


instinct



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Michael-5 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?

GT4 Prologue outsold GT5 Prologue in Japan by 220k (38.6%), and it was only released 1 year before GT4, where GT5P was released 2 years before GT5.

Also GT5 is being released late into the consoles life (similar time to when GT2 and GT4 were launched after the launch of the console). Without an early GT on the PS3, GT5P had no competition, and still was outsold by GT4P, which had GT3 as competition (In Japan, the only real region GT4P came out).

So I'm betting 8.5 million. It will do worse then similarly timed GT games, but only by 1-2 million. 15% weaker sales is reasonable.

P.S. GT4P was released in Europe, only a single month before the launch of GT4, and not in all EMEAA regions. So don't look at that data and think "But GT5P did soo much better in EMEAA."

P.P.S. GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P, so if GT5 does that same, thats 8 million.

lol at the pps.

gt4p sold how much 1 million? gt4 sold almost 11 million. thats not 60% :P



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Michael-5 said:

Wow 44% of people here beleive GT5 will outsell GT3. Shows you where the general loyalties are at, on this website.

If you look at GT sales data, GT games never sell that well in Americas, GT3 was an odd exception, where it sold just as well in other regions as other GT games, but did 3 times better in Americas. Looking at Pre-orders, GT5 sales will not mimic GT3 sales in Americas.

So it's very unlikely that GT5 will outsell GT3. I mean in order for GT5 to sell 7 million in America's region, 1 in every 2 PSW3 owners would have to get the game. Just not going to happen, no game gets 50% attach rates, unless it's bundled with the console for a very very long time (like Wii Sports).

I voted worst selling GT5 game. I just can't see how GT5 could outsell any prior GT game when there is stronger competition out there then ever before, and when the PS3 lifetime will only have sold half as many consoles as PS2, and about 2/3rds as much as PS1. Also GT1 and GT3, the 2 best selling GT games, were released early into the consoles life. GT5 is being released very late into the consoles life, so I think it will more likely match GT2 and GT4 trends, and still fall short by a million or two.


I'm not saying that GT5 will beat GT3 but there are numerous examples of games having very high attach ratios. PES 2010 has something like a 30% attach ratio in Latin America. GOW3 has about a 20% attach ratio in Canada and something like a 33% attach ratio in India (~25k sales, 75k install base). In some of the smaller regions I wholly expect GT5 to have close to a 50% attach ratio. Lack of piracy, or at least wide-spread piracy, is going to help GT5 out tremendously. My prediction is that non-USA Americas sales is 600k. Which wouldn't even be that big in Canada if Sony hit their projection of 3 million there by the end of 2011.



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