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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

 

Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

Best Selling Gran Turismo 939 37.95%
 
2nd Best Selling Gran Turismo 494 19.97%
 
3rd Best Selling Gran Turismo 389 15.72%
 
4th Best Selling Gran Turismo 116 4.69%
 
The Worst Selling Gran Turismo 536 21.67%
 
Total:2,474
Linkzmax on 17 October 2010
darthdevidem01 said:

This generation we have seen the following:

DMC4 outsold DMC3 (multiplat but I believe the PS3 version alone would have too had it been exclusive)

MGS4 outsold MGS3 

GOW3 outsold GOW2

FF13 outsold FF12 (multiplat but the PS3 version alone did 4.3 Million and by the time it ends selling will be at 5 Million....so had it been exclusive the PS3 version alone would have done more)

The only exception is GTA4....

Otherwise we can see that the new iteration of a franchise outsells the last in the previous gen

However as GTA4 is the only exception I'll treat it as an anomaly, this is why I expect GT5 to outsell GT4 at the least! But if it doesn't it will still not be the lowest selling GT!!

DMC4 failed to outsell DMC

MGS4 failed to outsell MGS2(and MGS)

FFXIII failed to outsell FFX

GOW failed to outsell GOW(and for that matter it hasn't outsold GOW2 yet either)

The only exception is GTAIV which actually did outsell GTAIII with multiplat taken into consideration

Otherwise we can see that the new iteration of a franchise fails to outsell the first iteration of a franchise from the previous gen

However, that really doesn't tell us anything except that a series's sales on one platform tend to fall off with sequels. If we put the two trends together, GT5 will end up as 2nd or 3rd best-selling in the series.



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FinalEvangelion on 18 October 2010

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?



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Michael-5 on 18 October 2010

Wow 44% of people here beleive GT5 will outsell GT3. Shows you where the general loyalties are at, on this website.

If you look at GT sales data, GT games never sell that well in Americas, GT3 was an odd exception, where it sold just as well in other regions as other GT games, but did 3 times better in Americas. Looking at Pre-orders, GT5 sales will not mimic GT3 sales in Americas.

So it's very unlikely that GT5 will outsell GT3. I mean in order for GT5 to sell 7 million in America's region, 1 in every 2 PSW3 owners would have to get the game. Just not going to happen, no game gets 50% attach rates, unless it's bundled with the console for a very very long time (like Wii Sports).

I voted worst selling GT5 game. I just can't see how GT5 could outsell any prior GT game when there is stronger competition out there then ever before, and when the PS3 lifetime will only have sold half as many consoles as PS2, and about 2/3rds as much as PS1. Also GT1 and GT3, the 2 best selling GT games, were released early into the consoles life. GT5 is being released very late into the consoles life, so I think it will more likely match GT2 and GT4 trends, and still fall short by a million or two.



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Michael-5 on 18 October 2010
Linkzmax said:
darthdevidem01 said:

This generation we have seen the following:

DMC4 outsold DMC3 (multiplat but I believe the PS3 version alone would have too had it been exclusive)

MGS4 outsold MGS3 

GOW3 outsold GOW2

FF13 outsold FF12 (multiplat but the PS3 version alone did 4.3 Million and by the time it ends selling will be at 5 Million....so had it been exclusive the PS3 version alone would have done more)

The only exception is GTA4....

Otherwise we can see that the new iteration of a franchise outsells the last in the previous gen

However as GTA4 is the only exception I'll treat it as an anomaly, this is why I expect GT5 to outsell GT4 at the least! But if it doesn't it will still not be the lowest selling GT!!

DMC4 failed to outsell DMC

MGS4 failed to outsell MGS2(and MGS)

FFXIII failed to outsell FFX

GOW failed to outsell GOW(and for that matter it hasn't outsold GOW2 yet either)

The only exception is GTAIV which actually did outsell GTAIII with multiplat taken into consideration

Otherwise we can see that the new iteration of a franchise fails to outsell the first iteration of a franchise from the previous gen

However, that really doesn't tell us anything except that a series's sales on one platform tend to fall off with sequels. If we put the two trends together, GT5 will end up as 2nd or 3rd best-selling in the series.

Also you should realize GoW2 was released after the successor console (the PS3) was released, so that probably hurt GoW2 sales, and MGS4 got a perfect rating on IGN, and substantially stronger ratings then MGS3. MGS1 and MGS2 (two similarly rated MGS games) still outsold it.

As for FFXIII, I wouldn't count that. It's still exclusive in Japan, its strongest market, and I don't think sales would have been that much stronger if it had been exclusive.



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Michael-5 on 18 October 2010
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?

GT4 Prologue outsold GT5 Prologue in Japan by 220k (38.6%), and it was only released 1 year before GT4, where GT5P was released 2 years before GT5.

Also GT5 is being released late into the consoles life (similar time to when GT2 and GT4 were launched after the launch of the console). Without an early GT on the PS3, GT5P had no competition, and still was outsold by GT4P, which had GT3 as competition (In Japan, the only real region GT4P came out).

So I'm betting 8.5 million. It will do worse then similarly timed GT games, but only by 1-2 million. 15% weaker sales is reasonable.

P.S. GT4P was released in Europe, only a single month before the launch of GT4, and not in all EMEAA regions. So don't look at that data and think "But GT5P did soo much better in EMEAA."

P.P.S. GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P, so if GT5 does that same, thats 8 million.



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kopstudent89 on 18 October 2010

I can see 10 million, especially with EU kicking in! on par with GT4 i say!



darthdevidem01 on 18 October 2010
Linkzmax said:
darthdevidem01 said:

This generation we have seen the following:

DMC4 outsold DMC3 (multiplat but I believe the PS3 version alone would have too had it been exclusive)

MGS4 outsold MGS3 

GOW3 outsold GOW2

FF13 outsold FF12 (multiplat but the PS3 version alone did 4.3 Million and by the time it ends selling will be at 5 Million....so had it been exclusive the PS3 version alone would have done more)

The only exception is GTA4....

Otherwise we can see that the new iteration of a franchise outsells the last in the previous gen

However as GTA4 is the only exception I'll treat it as an anomaly, this is why I expect GT5 to outsell GT4 at the least! But if it doesn't it will still not be the lowest selling GT!!

DMC4 failed to outsell DMC

MGS4 failed to outsell MGS2(and MGS)

FFXIII failed to outsell FFX

GOW failed to outsell GOW(and for that matter it hasn't outsold GOW2 yet either)

The only exception is GTAIV which actually did outsell GTAIII with multiplat taken into consideration

Otherwise we can see that the new iteration of a franchise fails to outsell the first iteration of a franchise from the previous gen

However, that really doesn't tell us anything except that a series's sales on one platform tend to fall off with sequels. If we put the two trends together, GT5 will end up as 2nd or 3rd best-selling in the series.

Exactly my point, thats why I didn't think GT5 would outsell GT3.

And the reason you saw GTA4 do differently is because it became big last gen (well so did DMC), either way its showing a different trend than the other games we have mentioned, I don't know the reason. Maybe PS360 didn't have a large enough userbase to support it early in the gen....also it had a considerably lower word of mouth than GTA:SA.



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Ping_ii on 18 October 2010

Yes it will FAIL........JUST LIKE HEAVY RAIN!!! LULZ!!!!

OT: no it won't 10m it will sell.



VGhippy on 18 October 2010
darthdevidem01 said:

I guess they are lucky GT5: Prologue covered up for all the costs of GT5!


Really not sure about this. 4 million sales is quite good, but it was a budget priced game and it has to cover 5 years of development costs. If Sony gets about £10 for every game sold to retail that's only 40million, which is an insanely low cost to develop a top tier title like GT5 for 5 years. That's only 8 million a year and it would have to include things like licensing. I think the best we can say is that Prologue offset about half the Dev cost.

 



darthdevidem01 on 18 October 2010
VGhippy said:
darthdevidem01 said:

I guess they are lucky GT5: Prologue covered up for all the costs of GT5!


Really not sure about this. 4 million sales is quite good, but it was a budget priced game and it has to cover 5 years of development costs. If Sony gets about £10 for every game sold to retail that's only 40million, which is an insanely low cost to develop a top tier title like GT5 for 5 years. That's only 8 million a year and it would have to include things like licensing. I think the best we can say is that Prologue offset about half the Dev cost.

 

Actually they sold 5 Million of GT5 : Prologue



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