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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

 

Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

Best Selling Gran Turismo 939 37.95%
 
2nd Best Selling Gran Turismo 494 19.97%
 
3rd Best Selling Gran Turismo 389 15.72%
 
4th Best Selling Gran Turismo 116 4.69%
 
The Worst Selling Gran Turismo 536 21.67%
 
Total:2,474
Michael-5 on 18 October 2010
zgamer5 said:
Michael-5 said:
zgamer5 said:
Michael-5 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?

GT4 Prologue outsold GT5 Prologue in Japan by 220k (38.6%), and it was only released 1 year before GT4, where GT5P was released 2 years before GT5.

Also GT5 is being released late into the consoles life (similar time to when GT2 and GT4 were launched after the launch of the console). Without an early GT on the PS3, GT5P had no competition, and still was outsold by GT4P, which had GT3 as competition (In Japan, the only real region GT4P came out).

So I'm betting 8.5 million. It will do worse then similarly timed GT games, but only by 1-2 million. 15% weaker sales is reasonable.

P.S. GT4P was released in Europe, only a single month before the launch of GT4, and not in all EMEAA regions. So don't look at that data and think "But GT5P did soo much better in EMEAA."

P.P.S. GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P, so if GT5 does that same, thats 8 million.

lol at the pps.

gt4p sold how much 1 million? gt4 sold almost 11 million. thats not 60% :P

If you read my post, I was only comparing Japanese sales, as GT4P essentially was only released in Japan.

Yes GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P there, and GT5P sold worse in Japan then GT4P, despite having 2 years to sell instead of just 1.

true but you said 8 million.  or is it 0.8 million?

Not sure what your refering to here. GT4P sold 0.79 million units in Japan, and I predict GT5 will sell 8.5 million units worldwide. Two completly different points.

You should read my posts.



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darklich13 on 18 October 2010
CGI-Quality said:
darklich13 said:
atma998 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?



Please don't start me again with that ''Look at GT5 Prologue sales!!!!'' again.

GT5:P was out for almost 3 years now, was heavily bundled and is now at 3.9M. If there is anything we can learn from that is that GT5 won't sell more than 7-8 million after taking that into consideration. 

My thoughts exactly.

Except that GT5:P is looking at 5mill right now (including downloads), but that's besides the point. Bundled or not, the game is where it is. GT5 will have bundles that will help it too.

How much more than 5mil do you expect GT5 to be at its 3 year mark?



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Michael-5 on 18 October 2010
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:
zgamer5 said:
Michael-5 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?

GT4 Prologue outsold GT5 Prologue in Japan by 220k (38.6%), and it was only released 1 year before GT4, where GT5P was released 2 years before GT5.

Also GT5 is being released late into the consoles life (similar time to when GT2 and GT4 were launched after the launch of the console). Without an early GT on the PS3, GT5P had no competition, and still was outsold by GT4P, which had GT3 as competition (In Japan, the only real region GT4P came out).

So I'm betting 8.5 million. It will do worse then similarly timed GT games, but only by 1-2 million. 15% weaker sales is reasonable.

P.S. GT4P was released in Europe, only a single month before the launch of GT4, and not in all EMEAA regions. So don't look at that data and think "But GT5P did soo much better in EMEAA."

P.P.S. GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P, so if GT5 does that same, thats 8 million.

lol at the pps.

gt4p sold how much 1 million? gt4 sold almost 11 million. thats not 60% :P

If you read my post, I was only comparing Japanese sales, as GT4P essentially was only released in Japan.

Yes GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P there, and GT5P sold worse in Japan then GT4P, despite having 2 years to sell instead of just 1.

By Polyphony Digital (because PS3 games sales from VGC is not accurate, due to digital downloads):

Japan

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 790k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 740k
Gran Turismo 4: 1,270k

Europe

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 450k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 2,940k
Gran Turismo 4: 6,560k

Asia

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 160k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 110k
Gran Turismo 4: 170k

North America

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: Unreleased
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 1,160k
Gran Turismo 4: 3,050k

What's Your Point?

Comparing GT4P sales to GT5P sales, you can see GT4P sold better then GT5. Europe region should be ignored since the GT4P was released only a single month before GT4, and not in all regions.

So by Polyphony data themselves, GT4P sold 7% better in Japan and 45% better in Asia. Now thats not much in Japan, but GT4P did that in a year, where GT5P has been on the market for 2.5 years (3 in Japan).

If I compare how well both games did in Japan in 10 weeks and 20 weeks, GT4P sold 734k in 10 weeks, and 765.8k in 20 weeks, where GT5P sold 217.3k in 10 weeks, and 243.2k in 20 weeks. That mean GT4P sold 338% better in 10 weeks and 315% better in 20 weeks then GT5P. Now VGCharts doesn't include digital sales, so give GT5P numbers a 25% boost to 271.6k in 10 weeks and 304k in 20 weeks, but still the difference is 270.3% in 10 weeks and 251.9%!!!

Thats huge, how can you ignore that and still think the game will sell just as well. 60% is how much better GT4 did over GT4P, and taking into all the factors, the jump for GT5 should be even smaller (Since GT5P has been around longer then GT4P). I still say 8.5 million, but Japan sales are likely to really take a dive.

Keep in mind, this is just Japan, all I can really say is that in Japan, the game will likely sell half as well as previous GT games, but it's unlikely that the Japan region takes a dip and other regions do not.

I mean in Americas, a lot more people have 360's and gotten the their respective racing sim (Forza 3), so that likely hurt GT5 americas sales significantly, same goes with EMEAA.

P.S. Look at Asias figures. GT4P sold 160k, GT4 sold 170k. With figures like that, 6 million units for GT5 is a possibility (although I still beleive 8.5 million)



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Michael-5 on 18 October 2010
postofficebuddy said:
Michael-5 said:
postofficebuddy said:
Michael-5 said:

Wow 44% of people here beleive GT5 will outsell GT3. Shows you where the general loyalties are at, on this website.

If you look at GT sales data, GT games never sell that well in Americas, GT3 was an odd exception, where it sold just as well in other regions as other GT games, but did 3 times better in Americas. Looking at Pre-orders, GT5 sales will not mimic GT3 sales in Americas.

So it's very unlikely that GT5 will outsell GT3. I mean in order for GT5 to sell 7 million in America's region, 1 in every 2 PSW3 owners would have to get the game. Just not going to happen, no game gets 50% attach rates, unless it's bundled with the console for a very very long time (like Wii Sports).

I voted worst selling GT5 game. I just can't see how GT5 could outsell any prior GT game when there is stronger competition out there then ever before, and when the PS3 lifetime will only have sold half as many consoles as PS2, and about 2/3rds as much as PS1. Also GT1 and GT3, the 2 best selling GT games, were released early into the consoles life. GT5 is being released very late into the consoles life, so I think it will more likely match GT2 and GT4 trends, and still fall short by a million or two.


I'm not saying that GT5 will beat GT3 but there are numerous examples of games having very high attach ratios. PES 2010 has something like a 30% attach ratio in Latin America. GOW3 has about a 20% attach ratio in Canada and something like a 33% attach ratio in India (~25k sales, 75k install base). In some of the smaller regions I wholly expect GT5 to have close to a 50% attach ratio. Lack of piracy, or at least wide-spread piracy, is going to help GT5 out tremendously. My prediction is that non-USA Americas sales is 600k. Which wouldn't even be that big in Canada if Sony hit their projection of 3 million there by the end of 2011.

Those high attach rate trends are limited to small regions. No PS3 game has a crazy high attach rate in all regions.

Attach rate arguements are really silly, I mean GT1 and GT3 sold more then GT2 and GT4 on a smaller install base. Halo Reach is ouselling Halo 3 on a weekly basis, and it's attach rate is much much lower then all previous Halo games.

However, since you bring up this silly arguement, GT5 would need to see a worldwide attach rate of 25% to sell 10 million units as it is now, and assuming PS3 finishes with 70 million consoles sold, GT5 lifetime sales would need to be about 14%. Currently, the highest attach rate exclusive will likely be Halo: Reach (12.5 million lifetime sales on a console selling 70 million lifetime is about 18%)

Possible, but unlikely IMO, especially since all GT console games have never seen more then 11% lifetime attach rates, and that includes the mega GT3. 

Also 50%? Are you crazy? Name one non bundled game that had an attach rate that high? Pokemon, Halo, Mario, all fail at that, the highest attach rates they have ever seen would be in the range of 30-35%Why would GT succeed where EVERYTHING ELSE has failed?


Take note, I said in the smaller regions. The PES Latin America number is an estimation, and a conservative one at that. According to vgc our LA install base is somewhere around 650k-700k and PES 2010 sold 600k in LA. I only put 150k-200k for the PS3 version as an estimate, considering the level of piracy down there it's probably even higher than that. And go check Super Mario 64, Super Smash Brothers Melee, and Ninja Gaiden sales in Japan. We're undertracking NG by a fair bit according to Famitsu, it's like 200k. Also I believe FF7 achieved about a 50% attach ratio in Japan for a brief period after launch.

Again, those are regional sales, limited to small regions. Even though FF7 acheived a 50% attach rate in 1 small region, near the launch of the console, for a short period of time, it still ended off with a 10% attach rate in the end. Halo 3 also had a 30% attach rate at launch, but that also was early into the life of the console. It's very rare to see games get above 20% lifetime attach rates, unless they are bundled. No HD game has an attach rate like that and GT won't be any different.



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Michael-5 on 18 October 2010
CGI-Quality said:
darklich13 said:
atma998 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?



Please don't start me again with that ''Look at GT5 Prologue sales!!!!'' again.

GT5:P was out for almost 3 years now, was heavily bundled and is now at 3.9M. If there is anything we can learn from that is that GT5 won't sell more than 7-8 million after taking that into consideration. 

My thoughts exactly.

Except that GT5:P is looking at 5mill right now (including downloads), but that's besides the point. Bundled or not, the game is where it is. GT5 will have bundles that will help it too.

My thoughts exactly, bundles should bring GT5 sales to 8.5 million total (I know you think more CGI, but at least we agree on bundles helping).



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atma998 on 18 October 2010
CGI-Quality said:
FinalEvangelion said:

I'll be keeping this thread bookmarked.  I have a good feeling there will be some crow served.

Indeed. As with [insert any game on any console], it'll be interesting to see who got close and who didn't.

Fixed.



atma998 on 18 October 2010
FinalEvangelion said:

I'll be keeping this thread bookmarked.  I have a good feeling there will be some crow served.



And just by curiousity, what is YOUR prediction?



Chairman-Mao on 18 October 2010

Probably lowest selling. Doesn't mean it'll be a failure though. I'd imagine it'll do MW2 type numbers, around 8 million. Maybe more because it'll have massive legs and I don't see a GT6 coming this gen.



atma998 on 18 October 2010
Carl2291 said:
atma998 said:

I simply added some other games to your awful list of only 3 and a half games that lead you to the conclusion that a ''new iteration of a franchise outsells the last in the previous gen''.

If you want to take example of games that are more closer to GT5 in terms of behavior, why didnt you take any Need for Speed games in your theory instead of MGS, DMC or FF?

Now userbase is not everything for sure but it helps a lot to sell games. Just take a quick look at PS2 vs. PS3, XB vs. XB360 and GC vs. Wii games to see what I'm talking about. However, it's not because your userbase is 2 times bigger than it will sells 2 times more games, but something for sure it won't sell less than before and the other way around...

Something worth noting again.

MGS4 and god of War 3 wouldn't sell as well as the PS2 games because of the userbase. Yet both games have proven this wrong.

I think this is also something darth was trying to point out.

Also worth noting. The NFS games were milked to the point that they sold like ass on both PS3 and 360... Combined. Underground/Underground 2 were both new, fresh ideas riding on the back of films like Fast and Furious pushing the car modding scene.

Ok now Need for Speed games were too milked lol. Do you know how many games of the franchise was released on PS2? Seven. How many games were released on PS3? Four. And for your information not just Underground sold well on PS2, Most Wanted, ProStreet and Hot Pursuit also sold very well.

Your Fast and Furious argument is also silly. If you absolutely want to draw a conclusion from NFS sales you could say that the racing genre is declining instead of trying to find poor excuses on how bad NFS games on PS3 perform in comparison to NFS games on PS2. After all, some genres gain in popularity (like shooters right now) while some other genres are declining, that's just the way it is and the golden age of GT may be a thing from the past imo.



FinalEvangelion on 19 October 2010
atma998 said:
FinalEvangelion said:

I'll be keeping this thread bookmarked.  I have a good feeling there will be some crow served.



And just by curiousity, what is YOUR prediction?


http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3697587

11 million



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