Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

[Michael-5]

ethomaz said:

Michael-5 said:

zgamer5 said:

Michael-5 said:

FinalEvangelion said:

So people really think GT5 can't sell more than 7-8 million when GT5 Prologue (a glorified demo) sold 5 million?

GT4 Prologue outsold GT5 Prologue in Japan by 220k (38.6%), and it was only released 1 year before GT4, where GT5P was released 2 years before GT5.

Also GT5 is being released late into the consoles life (similar time to when GT2 and GT4 were launched after the launch of the console). Without an early GT on the PS3, GT5P had no competition, and still was outsold by GT4P, which had GT3 as competition (In Japan, the only real region GT4P came out).

So I'm betting 8.5 million. It will do worse then similarly timed GT games, but only by 1-2 million. 15% weaker sales is reasonable.

P.S. GT4P was released in Europe, only a single month before the launch of GT4, and not in all EMEAA regions. So don't look at that data and think "But GT5P did soo much better in EMEAA."

P.P.S. GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P, so if GT5 does that same, thats 8 million.

lol at the pps.

gt4p sold how much 1 million? gt4 sold almost 11 million. thats not 60% :P

If you read my post, I was only comparing Japanese sales, as GT4P essentially was only released in Japan.

Yes GT4 only sold 60% better then GT4P there, and GT5P sold worse in Japan then GT4P, despite having 2 years to sell instead of just 1.

By Polyphony Digital (because PS3 games sales from VGC is not accurate, due to digital downloads):

Japan

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 790k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 740k
Gran Turismo 4: 1,270k

Europe

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 450k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 2,940k
Gran Turismo 4: 6,560k

Asia

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: 160k
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 110k
Gran Turismo 4: 170k

North America

Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”: Unreleased
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”: 1,160k
Gran Turismo 4: 3,050k

What's Your Point?

Comparing GT4P sales to GT5P sales, you can see GT4P sold better then GT5. Europe region should be ignored since the GT4P was released only a single month before GT4, and not in all regions.

So by Polyphony data themselves, GT4P sold 7% better in Japan and 45% better in Asia. Now thats not much in Japan, but GT4P did that in a year, where GT5P has been on the market for 2.5 years (3 in Japan).

If I compare how well both games did in Japan in 10 weeks and 20 weeks, GT4P sold 734k in 10 weeks, and 765.8k in 20 weeks, where GT5P sold 217.3k in 10 weeks, and 243.2k in 20 weeks. That mean GT4P sold 338% better in 10 weeks and 315% better in 20 weeks then GT5P. Now VGCharts doesn't include digital sales, so give GT5P numbers a 25% boost to 271.6k in 10 weeks and 304k in 20 weeks, but still the difference is 270.3% in 10 weeks and 251.9%!!!

Thats huge, how can you ignore that and still think the game will sell just as well. 60% is how much better GT4 did over GT4P, and taking into all the factors, the jump for GT5 should be even smaller (Since GT5P has been around longer then GT4P). I still say 8.5 million, but Japan sales are likely to really take a dive.

Keep in mind, this is just Japan, all I can really say is that in Japan, the game will likely sell half as well as previous GT games, but it's unlikely that the Japan region takes a dip and other regions do not.

I mean in Americas, a lot more people have 360's and gotten the their respective racing sim (Forza 3), so that likely hurt GT5 americas sales significantly, same goes with EMEAA.

P.S. Look at Asias figures. GT4P sold 160k, GT4 sold 170k. With figures like that, 6 million units for GT5 is a possibility (although I still beleive 8.5 million)