In Japan? I really think all current systems have peaked in Japan.

PS3 did 2.22m in Japan from August 30 2009 to August 29 2010 but will be down below 2m over the course of a 52 week in late September or October, as its already down to 2.02m over the 52 weeks ending Sept 12 2010. I have it back to 1.8m for Jan - Dec 2010.

PSP did 4.3m in Japan over a 52 week period roughly two years earlier - 52 weeks to Sept 21 2008. Its down to something like 2.4m for the year ending Sept 12 2010.

Wii did 3.8m in Japan over a 52 week period ending March 2008. Its down to something like 2.15m for the year ending Sept 12 2010

DS did 9.24m (!!) in Japan over a 52 week period ending Dec 24 2006. Its down to 3.3m for the year ending Sept 12 2010.

I think traditionally, in Japan, new consoles arrive four years after a system peaked. PS2 peaked at 4.5m over the 52 weeks ending Dec 1 2002. PS3 released in Nov 2006. Famicom peaked in 1986, Super Famicom released in 1990. SNES peaked 1992, N64 launched in 1996, Genesis peaked in 1990, Saturn launched in 1994. N64 peaked in 1997, GC released in 2001.DS peaked in 2006, and 3DS could be out by the end of 2010.

There are a couple excpetions though. Saturn / PS1 both had early successors given that Saturn peaked in what, 1995? and DC released in 1998. PS1 peaked in 1997 and PS2 was out in 2000. PSP peaked in late 2008, but it will have a successor before late 2012. GC peaked in 2003, Wii released in 2006. I don't think you can expect Sony to wait until 2014 to release PS4 either,

I'd expect Wii 2 in Spring 2012 I suppose. Ride out Zelda / Pikmin / Price Cut / IE3 to a decent 2011, and then let DQX / small games / one more price cut cut carry the Wii from Spring 2012 on. In Japan Wii can still get to well over 15m lifetime if it has a strong 2011 (should be over 11.5m by the end of 2010 in Japan).

PSP2 will probably be out in Fall 2011 in Japan, and I figure PS4 will be out in Fall 2012.

In all seriousness, these threads are kinda meh since logically this gen is winding down, its not dead, won't be for another couple of years if not more, but record breaking sales of the Wii and software overall will start to become more steady and there will be fewer spikes.  Nintendo might want to do a home console redesign like the others (to get another spike), colors have proven in the past as they do now that it doesn't get return buyers like redesigns do.

Though on the otherhand Nintendo might look at it in this way, even if previous owners buy a new redesign, its still the same person owning the console except now there is two consoles in the house and the same amount of games being bought when there was just one so it actually hurts attach ratio and to be honest console sales are just numbers one console maker likes to throw in the face of the others, since i's obvious you don't need to sell a 100 million consoles to be a stable platform for developers.

What makes anyone think that 3rd parties will support a new Nintendo console if Nintendo rushes one out? No, we are still years away from the successor to the Wii.

I assumed your question was about 2011, not 2010.

Ofcourse Nintendo will announce a new console next year.

I think the Wii situation in Japan is dismal. Being that I don't live in Japan, I'm not especially concerned with its performance there. I do, however, care that apart from Nintendo's own fine releases there is just so little to look forward to. The 2010 Wii lineup is nothing short of a joke when you compare it to what the PS2 had coming out at that point in its life. 

It's still hard to argue that the that Wii hasn't been enormously successful for Nintendo. They've made a lot of money and sold gaming consoles to people who would never buy one otherwise. This is great for them; it's just their relationship with 3rd parties that leaves something to be desired. I think the Wii will go down in history behind the Dreamcast as the system with the most squandered potential with so many amazing ideas simply left on the table because Nintendo nor third parties could be bothered to pursue them. Simply tragic I think.

There will be no announces or even intended hints this year.   They want all attention on the 3DS at this point. 

Also hints of a new console would undercut the current one which still has a slew of major games to be released - Kirby, DKCR, Wii Party, ZELDA.    Wii will do fine this holiday season.   It may or may not outsell the competition but sales will still be very profittable and quite strong.

However there's no question Wii is ebbing and a new console will likely be announced at E3 or TGS 11

The next year is the last big software push for the Wii.

A successor will be released in time for 2011 Holiday sales worldwide.

I have spoken 8*>

Mike from Morgantown

(No, I don't know anything more than anyone else. But looking at past history, this would make sense).

I didn't count Pikmin 3 as it's not officially announced yet and really, I'm not sure if it'll even end up on Wii.  Could go 3DS, or even Wii 2 imo.

I do sort of think Nintendo should consider continuing the NPC line next year though, to help fill the holes in the schedule.  Games like F-Zero GX, Mario Golf GC or even higher profile conversions like Mario Sunshine and Zelda TWW could help fill out the lineup and probably sell pretty decently (Mario Tennis GC and Pikmin 1-2 did pretty well on Wii already).  They could even open it up to select 3rd party games actually (Viewtful Joe, DrillLand, SA2Battle, Homeland, etc).

The wii is pretty much slowing down a bit.

But this does not at all mean Nintendo will kill it now. 

There's still lots of games coming in the near future, and we don't know what Nintendo has planned for the upcoming year because they're so damn secretive.

Anyhow, I'm thinking the next console won't be announced until earl 2012 or so. 

Things happen.  Eternal Darkness, Cubivore and Dinosaur Planet were all confirmed for N64 too.  Super Paper Mario, DK Barrel Blast and Kirby were confirmed for GC.... don't be surprised if some late term Wii games end up on the successor instead (or in addition to, like Twilight Princess).