Fair enough.  And until it's officially announced, I won't be considering Pikmin 3 an official Wii game.  Because as of now, it isn't.

Sorry for the double post. Damnit.

Weren't many people thinking that Wii would do better than Wii WW?  Up until the Wii's lull of the last few months some people still seemed optimisitc.  It's looking to miss by a lot if it has passed its peak.  But it's also probably still ahead of the PS2's pace, which is puzzling. lol

Yeah, it's just going to have a shorter cycle by virtue of market dynamics.  It can still hold the title of fastest selling console ever (unless 3DS takes it, which is likely imo), but it's never going to come close to beating DS or PS2 for the best selling crown overall.

It should still pass PS1 though, and might come close to GB.

Which is still good company to be in, much like the market dynamics, I think next gen if the momentum can stay in the favor of Nintendo, the 3DS and the next home console could pull off some crazy numbers and be backed by software support.  Really trying something new put third party devs off right at the beginning and it's been a lumpy road for them ever since, they established their base on PS3 and 360 early, and found it hard to switch mid season essentially.

But with all pistons firing sales could be much better all over the world, just hopefully Nintendo will help out the European markets more, its still hard to get some of their games in some countries and they have to pay higher prices when they import, that could be the difference between being the best selling console and being in second.

I pretty much agree with all this, and the early (basically industry wide) commitment of support for 3DS is pretty encouraging.  I definitely expect the same gameplan for Nintendo with Wii 2, and I can see most major 3rd parties jumping in also so as not be left behind like they were on Wii 1.

hellooooo, where have you guys been the last 4 years? Japanese and American developers dislike the wii. Crying about lack of support is stupid. Buy a DS if you're a nintendo fanboy, and stop crying. The DS > Wii in support.

DS > everything

<3 <3 DS <3 <3

It should pass PS1 rather easily to be honest.

Nintendo is still set for a big Oct-Dec quarter (DKC, Kirby, Wii Party, and then Epic Mickey, Goldeneye, Sonic Colors, Udraw, NBA Jam, Dj Hero 2, Just Dance 2, Def Jam, Michael Jackson, etc for the West) with Wii.

The current fiscal year projection is 18m. If you figure 3m / 3m / 9m / 3m by quarter its relatively easy to make, and what Nintendo has in mind, give or take 5% per quarter. I could see them only doing 17m or something, but its still a damn good year. Last fiscal year was more like 2.2m / 3.5m / 11.2m / 3.5m (20.5m for year to March 2010) - so its essentially flat non-holiday quarter sales (up on the price cut for the June 2010 quarter, down in Sept 10 / March 11 quarters without the price cut) and down a couple million in the Dec quarter because of fewer massive titles for Christmas / no recent price cut.

Heading into 2011 though, you have to figure there is another price cut by Fall. So the next fiscal year could be 2m / 3.5m / 7.5m / 3.0m or something. That'd be 15.5m. It isn't really that hard to imagine Wii seeing one more real good year at $180 or $150 - especially with Zelda likely for Christmas, Mario Sports Mix for April, Pikmin 3 for June, Wii Relax for August, or something. The western developers won't give up on the Wii base until the third party market is less than 30m year and it won't reach that point for a few years yet.

All of Nintendo's top teams should be done with Wii by the end of March 2012 though - and so after that point it should begin to decline rapidly.

But it could easily get to 120m

LTD Projection for 3/2011 88.93m (18m in Fiscal Year ending March 2011)

3/2012 LTD: 104m (15m - price cut early in FY to make Wii a good value against Kinect / Move, and Wii successor)

3/2013 LTD: 114m (10m - no price cut, Wii successor / Kinect / Move / PS4 / X720 all possibilities)

3/2014 LTD: 122m (8m - price cut to $100...still includes two games - purchasing rates rapidly drop well below 1/2 game per average user for non bundled titles, last big Christmas for Wii)

3/2015 LTD: 126m (4m - newer systems approach mass market pricing)

3/2016 LTD: 128m (2m)

3/2017 LTD: 129m (1m - production stops)

Honestly, they all seem almost all done now.  EAD1/2 have pretty clearly moved to 3DS whole hog, EAD3 just has Zelda SS (due 1H 2011), EAD4 maybe Pikmin 3, EAD Tokyo who knows (personally I suspect they're already prototyping a 3D Mario for Wii 2).  SDP1 is probably done after Other M (and I suspect the next Metroid goes to 3DS using the same engine).  Retro has DKCR coming this year, but I could see them doing DKCR2 on Wii yet, maybe even for holiday 2011.  Project Sora skipped Wii entirely.  Monoloth's probably done after Xenoblade, HAL's been mia all along, IntSys is 3DS bound... anyone else major I'm missing?  I can't really see any of Nintendo's secondary tier teams (SDP2, NST, NdCube, Brownie Brown, Genuis Sonority, etc) having much for Wii in the future.  Maybe a Pokemon BR2 for Black/White from GS, but that's about it really.