But there's plenty of stuff coming for the Wii, isn't there? Zelda, Kirby, Donkey Kong, Wii Party, Epic Mickey, Mario Sports, UDraw, Goldeneye, Just Dance 2, etc.

Wii Vitality should be coming which should further expand the market for the Wii.

I don't think Move or Kinect present that big of a threat to Nintendo aside from just being a lot of hype. Kinect will be a moderate success and Move will bomb.

alfredo, I had a much more in depth response, but accidently hit the delete button whilst not clicked on the text box. Ugh. Anyway

Summary was that you should have a look at the PS2's history to find out why I can't accept your claims.

The PS2 only had 5 big games outside its first 46 months.

GTA:SA - balanced by NSMB

GT4 - Balanced by SMG2

DQVIII - balanced by DQX

NFS and FFXII - balanced by Zelda and Wii Party

My longer post went on to address the inevitable concern that GTA:SA and GT4 were released just after the 46 month mark and that SMG2 and NSMB were released just before, and to state that that difference is fairly minor. I also stated that the Wii has the advantage that it has so far had more evergreen games, such as Wii Fit, that will continue to push hardware and balance out the minor issue just raised. My post also pointed out that this analysis is based on the assumption that the Wii does not have any more big games announced for it, either 1st or 3rd party, and that no currently announced games end up selling better than expected, which if true leaves the Wii in about as good a position as the PS2 was, and if not true leaves the Wii in a btter position.

@ fwap - well, I'm saying it now. Not certain, but likely.

What about Inazuma Eleven?

I think the Wii's successor will be announced this year, for release early next year.  I think Nintendo wish to catch Sony and Microsoft off guard while they are focussing on Move/Kinect 

When has Nintendo ever needed third parties to carry their consoles? They have Kirby, DKC, Zelda and the Wii Vitality sensor is still floating around. Pikmin is supposed to come next year, Dragon Quest being their one big third party game counts for a lot. Wii will do just fine.

is everyone forgetting this year's lineup?

Honestly though I'm more interested in the 3ds lineup though... really disappointed there is no console pilotwings.

Earth Seeker's a futuristic sci-fi Monster Hunter clone from the original series director (who now runs a company called Crafts & Meister, made up of mostly former Capcom staff) and produced by Enterbrain (aka: Famitsu).  It might do okay, or it might bomb, could really go either way imo.

And honestly, I think 3DS is going to kill off both PSP and Wii support.  As is, both are looking pretty pathetic for 2011 and on, PSP's being propped up by Nomura almost single handedly, and Nintendo (as usual) is the real lone driving force for Wii.  For games next year or ater that could sell upwards of 200k in Japan, it's just...

PSP

• Dissidia Duodecim: Final Fantasy 012 (Square Enix)
• Final Fantasy Agito XIII (Square Enix)
• Kingdom Hearts: Birth By Sleep: Final Mix (Square Enix)
• White Knight Chronicles: Dogma Wars (SCEI/Japan studio)

I believe that there will be at least a 2 year gap between the 3DS and the Wii's successor.

Dont forget about the Vitality Sensor , this little thing can be bigger than Kinectics or move...

              I think he is saying after this year. Third partys have absolutely nothing to cover the months of January-June. Yes, there are titles like Dragon Ques, but who know when it is going out, and I'm not counting titles like Mario Sports Mix, because I doubt Square-Enix begged Nintendo to do that title. It is worse than this year, PS360 had tons and tons of big exclusives in the same timeframe, while Nintendo had to rely on few small third-parties releases. Now it seems they are even more abandoned, relying only in thenselves for Jan-Jun.

I think the software situation in Japan (and situation in general) is what will push Nintendo to a new console by next holiday season. They've got enough strength on their own that Wii can move through the end quite handily (and remain quite strong even in Japan at the very end, as Dragon Quest X is likely to land Fall 2011 as well)

My bet is that Microsoft will match that date for a new console, though, and they too will have the strength to hold 360 through to the end (and not drop it like a hot potato like they did with the Xbox), but Microsoft is going to want to head into the next generation quickly, a super integrated Kinect upgrade console at roughly double 360 specs.

It's Sony that'll hold out, but not past holidays 2012