2010 Wii: The end of the road

[TheSource]

In Japan? I really think all current systems have peaked in Japan.

PS3 did 2.22m in Japan from August 30 2009 to August 29 2010 but will be down below 2m over the course of a 52 week in late September or October, as its already down to 2.02m over the 52 weeks ending Sept 12 2010. I have it back to 1.8m for Jan - Dec 2010.

PSP did 4.3m in Japan over a 52 week period roughly two years earlier - 52 weeks to Sept 21 2008. Its down to something like 2.4m for the year ending Sept 12 2010.

Wii did 3.8m in Japan over a 52 week period ending March 2008. Its down to something like 2.15m for the year ending Sept 12 2010

DS did 9.24m (!!) in Japan over a 52 week period ending Dec 24 2006. Its down to 3.3m for the year ending Sept 12 2010.

I think traditionally, in Japan, new consoles arrive four years after a system peaked. PS2 peaked at 4.5m over the 52 weeks ending Dec 1 2002. PS3 released in Nov 2006. Famicom peaked in 1986, Super Famicom released in 1990. SNES peaked 1992, N64 launched in 1996, Genesis peaked in 1990, Saturn launched in 1994. N64 peaked in 1997, GC released in 2001.DS peaked in 2006, and 3DS could be out by the end of 2010.

There are a couple excpetions though. Saturn / PS1 both had early successors given that Saturn peaked in what, 1995? and DC released in 1998. PS1 peaked in 1997 and PS2 was out in 2000. PSP peaked in late 2008, but it will have a successor before late 2012. GC peaked in 2003, Wii released in 2006. I don't think you can expect Sony to wait until 2014 to release PS4 either,

I'd expect Wii 2 in Spring 2012 I suppose. Ride out Zelda / Pikmin / Price Cut / IE3 to a decent 2011, and then let DQX / small games / one more price cut cut carry the Wii from Spring 2012 on. In Japan Wii can still get to well over 15m lifetime if it has a strong 2011 (should be over 11.5m by the end of 2010 in Japan).

PSP2 will probably be out in Fall 2011 in Japan, and I figure PS4 will be out in Fall 2012.