ROFLROFLROFL @ ME

You shouldn't underestimate Donkey Kong Country Returns Carl.

Donkey Kong Country 3 sold over 3m on SNES at a time when PS1 and N64 were already established in the market - 1996 - 1997. When the SNES was still the biggest console in 1994/1995 the first DKC did 9.3m - thats bigger than Super Mario Galaxy 1 and likely 2 on a base 30m units smaller than Wii (by the time DKC Returns releases). The second DKC did  5.2m - and that was in 1995/1996 when PS1 was establishing itself with new platformers / new genres - many SNES users had moved on already. Donkey Kong 64 did 5m as well, and that was on the 33m N64 base. The Wii base in the USA alone will be larger than the N64 base by the end of 2010, and the SNES only got to 32m in the West, while Wii will be at 70m or more at the end of the year in the West.

We've seen that Wii tends to inflate old Nintendo series with multiplayer as a key component:

MK Wii >> MK DS >>>>>>>>> MK64 >> MK SNES >> MK GC >> MK GBA

Mario Party 8 >>>> All other Mario Parties

Smash Bros Wii >>> Smash Bros GC >>>> Smash Bros N64

NSMB Wii is at 15.4m in 9 months - it will easily top Super Mario World and SMB3 once it has a comparable amount of time on the market to those games.

If Donkey Kong 64 / DKC 1-2 both did over 5m when SNES / N64 were near their prime there is no reason to believe DKC Wii will do anything less than 5m - and I think 6-8m is likely, with 10m not out of the question. Its roughly as big as Reach / Gran Turismo 5, as there has yet to be a Donkey Kong game on Wii.

Donkey Kong isn't even the big game from Nintendo anyway - Wii Party will destroy it - probably sell 8-12m worldwide, may beat everything but Call of Duty: Black Ops that releases this Fall.

It will because Kinect is to be bundled but I was referring to the non-bundled Kinect games not topping 3m. I think it will be the second wave that does that if the device is successful.There isn't a Wii Sports / Wii Play level hit in the first wave - Dance Central is sort of improving an existing genre, not paving the way for a new control style the way Wii Sports did. DDR, Just Dance, Boogie, Eye toy dance games have been around for a while.

Going by company some of the stuff that is probably going to get squeezed out over Sept-Dec:

Nintendo: Flingsmash, Mario vs. Donkey Kong, Metroid: Other M

Capcom: Dead Rising 2

EA: Create, MOH (Halo vs. Call of Duty vs. Metroid vs. Goldeneye vs. MOH...yikes), NBA Elite

Konami: Castlevania

Microsoft: Fable III - don't see 5m - will do well though, I think we only see three or four Kinect games do well this season - probably 1-2 from Microsoft. Its Dance Central plus two - three others that might do well.

Activision: Guitar Hero (DJ Hero, Def Jam, Just Dance 2, Dance Central, Rockband 3 etc will steal the show), Tony Hawk (no one cares anymore).

THQ: WWE vs. Raw (EA MMA will be tough)

Ubisoft: Rabbits in TIme (oversaturated), Your Shape Kinect (not convinced women will buy Kinect yet)

Sony: Ape Escape, most Move games in general, Eye Pet, some PSP stuff

It's not that I underestimate the game itself. I just don't think the series is capable of "easily" pushing 10 Million... When no DK game has ever even reached the milestone.

Since the release of DK64 the series has pretty much well... Let's just say it's declined. No game in the series has topped 2 Million since DK64 (Granted there hasn't been a "real" DK release) and the 2 Wii DK branded games have barely broke 1 Million combined.

It doesn't have the big selling DS game to help it along, like NSMB and Mario Kart have had. Another thing is... Mario has never been away from the big sales. He's had a game every generation hit sales of over 6 Million. DK... Hasn't.

It will be under competition from Wii Party, Kirby, Just Dance 2, Black Ops, GoldenEye... I have a feeling the 3DS will also be working against the Wii this Holiday in Japan, depending on the launch games.

I agree on one thing. I shouldn't really say DKC will be a casualty, it's guaranteed to sell a fair few million. I just don't think it's 5m material. I have been wrong before though

Donkey Kong 64 was bundled with the N64 though.

The franchise has never been so weak as it is right now.

I'm really hopeful that it will take back it's due popularity but I'm afraid it's been ignored for too long.

I think it will sell 2-3 million.

For the XBOX360 and PS3 I see Vanquish, Dead Rising 2, Need for Speed, Tony Hawk and all the musical games.

For the Wii: Goldeneye, Samurai Warriors, maybe NBA Jam and Flingsmash

For the DS: None actually.

For the PSP: Everything except Kingdom Hearts and God of War.

I'm not sure about Move and Kinect, but at least in NA Kinect is being pushed more, plus they have games that could be "selling points" at certain markets like Kinectimals. The problem with move lineup is that there isn't any  strong distinctive game.

BTW It'd be interesting to see what game could be the surprise this year, Remember Cabela last year?

I don't think the DS has a good software lineup at all this fall. I'm only excited for three more DS games. Golden Sun: Dark Dawn, Fire Emblem, and Pokemon Black/White, but I dont see any release dates. The DS needs those games this fall as it's final horah.

Also isn't Kinect being released at the end of October, close to LBP2's release?

This fall looks amazing, maybe the best year in gaming? You have Super Mario Galaxy 2, Halo Reach, Gran Turismo 5, Metroid: Other M, Mass Effect 2, God of War 3, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Alan Wake, Heavy Rain, Kirby Epic Yarn, Splinter Cell Conviction, LittleBigPlanet 2, Fallout, Call of Duty Black Ops, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, Final Fantasy XIII, Medal of Honour, Dead Rising 2, Starcraft 2, Wii Party, Fable 3, White Knight Chronicles, Assassin's Creed, and 007 Goldeneye for Wii/Blood-something for PS3/360 and don't forget the Kinect and Move line-up.

As for casualties I bet Mario vs. Donkey Kong won't sell that well for the DS, 007 Blood-something for the PS3/360, Castlevania for the 360/PS3, Sports Champions for the PS3, and New Carnical Games for the Wii.

Just as a note, I think CoD, Medal of Honour, GT, Halo, Fable, Fallout, Wii Party, and DKC Returns will all sell increadible well.

You forgot 2 important games:

FIFA 11 and Pro Evoltion soccer 2011, both are coming out in October. Those are two huge games outside USA where both comibned sold over 7 Million copies last year on PS3 and X360.

What DK release have been on Wii? the drum thing from GC and what else?

You have to remember that Nintendo's games track pretty directly with hardware sales. The reason DKC 1 is so much higher than DKC2-3 is that SNES had its last big Christmas in 1994 and had slowed pretty quickly.

Based on some research SNES sold roughly like this in the USA:

1991 : 3.1m

1992: 7m

1993: 4.3m

1994: 3.3m (Figure 200k / month Jan-Oct, 400k Nov, 800k Dec roughly - similar holiday figures to PS3 in 2008)

1995: 2.4m (300k Nov, 600k Dec roughly)

1996: 1.2m (150k Nov, 300k Dec roughly)

1997: 0.9m

1998: 0.9m

1999: 0.3m

Essentially, DKC got to be a key experience for the base that was still pretty active, and for the 7m new SNES users from Nov 1994 onward. DKC2 had fewer active users, and only 4m new SNES users to sell to. By the time DKC3 came out SNES was only sold to another 2.5m users or so and most people who bought SNES before 1992 were likely just about done, and moving on to PS1 / N64. If you compare those figures to DK64, the stats are most similar to DKC2 in terms of active users and how many systems were sold after release both worldwide and in the USA - and thats why they both sold about 5m.

For Wii, there are going to be at least 15m new USA owners after Nov 2010 (30m at least worldwide), and the base is going to be larger than SNES & N64 combined.

i just think most of the wii owners have never had a snes and dont even know much about donkey kong for it to sell very well. The core players will buy it up but the casuals wont.