It will because Kinect is to be bundled but I was referring to the non-bundled Kinect games not topping 3m. I think it will be the second wave that does that if the device is successful.There isn't a Wii Sports / Wii Play level hit in the first wave - Dance Central is sort of improving an existing genre, not paving the way for a new control style the way Wii Sports did. DDR, Just Dance, Boogie, Eye toy dance games have been around for a while.
Going by company some of the stuff that is probably going to get squeezed out over Sept-Dec:
Nintendo: Flingsmash, Mario vs. Donkey Kong, Metroid: Other M
Capcom: Dead Rising 2
EA: Create, MOH (Halo vs. Call of Duty vs. Metroid vs. Goldeneye vs. MOH...yikes), NBA Elite
Konami: Castlevania
Microsoft: Fable III - don't see 5m - will do well though, I think we only see three or four Kinect games do well this season - probably 1-2 from Microsoft. Its Dance Central plus two - three others that might do well.
Activision: Guitar Hero (DJ Hero, Def Jam, Just Dance 2, Dance Central, Rockband 3 etc will steal the show), Tony Hawk (no one cares anymore).
THQ: WWE vs. Raw (EA MMA will be tough)
Ubisoft: Rabbits in TIme (oversaturated), Your Shape Kinect (not convinced women will buy Kinect yet)
Sony: Ape Escape, most Move games in general, Eye Pet, some PSP stuff
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