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Forums - Nintendo - Place Your Bets! How Many More First-Party Exclusives Remain for Switch?

 

At what point will NS1 have received its final first-party software? (Excl. remakes, remasters, and ports.)

July 2026… Rhythm Heave... 3 27.27%
 
Dec 2026 1 9.09%
 
July 2027 5 45.45%
 
Dec 2027 1 9.09%
 
July 2028 1 9.09%
 
Dec 2028 0 0%
 
2029 or later 0 0%
 
Nintendo will never move on from Switch 1. 0 0%
 
Total:11

Do you think Rhythm Heaven is the finale? Or will Nintendo continue to drop some small release for NS1 every so-often?

NOTE: I am not counting ports/remakes/remasters here. Only games such as Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream, and Rhythm Heaven Groove; not something like Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD.



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I think we're heading into late 3DS territory where it's ports/remasters/remakes. So, I voted no more are left after Rhythm Heaven. Though it's still probable one more is on the way.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

None, outside what is announced. all S2 moving forward.



rtx 4090, 32 gb ram, i7-13700k

Switch 2

I am gonna bet on Nintendogs 2 (Nintenpets) next year



 

 

We reap what we sow

I'm betting we get at least some Switch 1 support into next year. Too many people have that console to completely neglect it.



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There's a good chance there's 1-2 small original releases left I'd say. Warioware Gold was the last original one on the 3DS if I remember right and that came out close to 1.5 years after the Switch came out and unlike that situation the Switch 2 is backwards compatible with the Switch so no harm in a small game not really taking advantage of the Switch 2's much greater capabilities releasing on the Switch 1 as well to take advantage of its install base since Switch 2 owners can buy it too. That install base is shrinking fast now though so the first half of next year is the latest it should get anything.



I'm going with July 2027 that we'll still see new games release on Switch from Nintendo. More specifically I think this fiscal year ending March 2027 will be the last fiscal year we get new Switch games. After that I expect only re-releases, remasters and remakes (not counting NSO games of course). Nintendo already said they're still developing Switch games, and I'm certain games that target a more casual audience would still release for Switch. Also, if I were to guess I think Nintendo would stop releasing games altogether on Switch by March 2028 excluding NSO games.

Unlike Sony and Microsoft once the Switch 2 released Nintendo's biggest games/IP only released on Switch 2 with no Switch release. Metroid Prime 4 and Pokemon are exemptions since they already announced them for Switch before the Switch 2 was even announced. So I'm expecting no big IP will be on Switch going forward unless it's a re-release of some kind.



I can see one or two smaller releases happening, just cos there's still well over 100 million Switch 1 owners who haven't upgraded yet. It won't be anything big though, just the sort of stuff 3DS saw post-Switch.



160rmf said:

I am gonna bet on Nintendogs 2 (Nintenpets) next year

I am skeptical that would come to Switch, and if it did it would be cross-gen. Switch doesn't have a microphone, and I think Nintendo wouldn't release a Nintendogs that had no version to use a mic in. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima