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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Should Xbox End their Generation Early?

 

What year should Xbox start the next generation?

2025 9 14.29%
 
2026 11 17.46%
 
2027 18 28.57%
 
2028 16 25.40%
 
2029 9 14.29%
 
Total:63

Rumors have been swirling, about the Series S/X console generation being cut short and getting a jump start on the next one.  This seems like it could be a double-edged sword.  On one side they could gain a little bit of a head start on their competition, but at the cost of possibly pissing off tens of millions of consumers who have already invested in the current generation.

They could change their marketing strategy and really start pushing the current generation, not to mention they have many heavy hitting titles (console movers) on the way, and remain in it for the long haul.  And these heavy hitters will still be there for a new generation as well and could even make excellent launch titles.  

What I find most troubling is their current marketing messaging, I'm not even sure anymore what the hell their goals are anymore.  They have given the impression that they're not as interested in hardware anymore, then at other times they state that they are.  This mix-messaging is not doing them any favors and if they continue on to their next console without a clear and concise mission statement, then it would just be another crap show for that generation as well.

I'd be in favor of it ending early if they had a crystal clear roadmap for it's future.  I'm against it if they're just going to throw some more shit at the wall to see what sticks.   



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

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November 2026 sounds like a good idea.
2024 would be far too early, and the rumor mill would probably be far more aggressive if it was that soon. November 2025 seems a little too early as well, given how much longer console cycles are getting.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

If the sales don't make a miraculous turn around in 2024 then absolutely. The Xbox One sold 9.6m in 2016 and it's looking like the Xbox Series this year will be lucky to do 7.5m. If they can't keep this console selling up to even XBO standards for 3 years then they sure as hell shouldn't try and keep selling it for 8 years.

If sales continue to decline 2024 then they should be looking to replace it ASAP because at that stage we're going to have to question whether the Series can even make it to 45m. So assuming no dark magic rituals propel the Xbox Series back up to 8m+ next year, 2026 would be a good year to launch.



If they restart generations so soon, that would just have the effect of each generation selling less and less because brand image gets more and more damaged. They'll probably need to rethink their entire concept and strategy. Can be done, Nintendo did it twice (not saying Microsoft should make underpowered consoles with a 'hook' necessarily though).



Zippy6 said:

If the sales don't make a miraculous turn around in 2024 then absolutely. The Xbox One sold 9.6m in 2016 and it's looking like the Xbox Series this year will be lucky to do 7.5m. If they can't keep this console selling up to even XBO standards for 3 years then they sure as hell shouldn't try and keep selling it for 8 years.

If sales continue to decline 2024 then they should be looking to replace it ASAP because at that stage we're going to have to question whether the Series can even make it to 45m. So assuming no dark magic rituals propel the Xbox Series back up to 8m+ next year, 2026 would be a good year to launch.

I pretty much agree with all of that. 

There are probably several reasons why Xbox Series X/S is tracking a little below Xbox One (which sold a lot less than Xbox 360).

-PS5s are more widely available now. I understand PS5 was already outselling Xbox before, but this year the ratio is now higher than before.

-Game Pass and PC Gaming: While Game Pass has surely helped sell some Xbox consoles, it's also a double-edged sword. Most games (and especially most big ones) are available on PC Game Pass and Game Pass Ultimate on PC. Some people would rather spend $600 (that's lowballing) and up on a gaming PC than buying either Xbox Series console. 

-Lack of first-party games

-Switch: Yes, Switch is doing its Blue Ocean thing. But let's not forget that Series is still pretty close to Xbox One in sales. Absolutely do I think there are at least 100k people (likely more) who probably bought an Xbox One but would rather buy a Switch than an Xbox Series. Or even people who didn't buy an Xbox One that would rather buy a Switch over a Series when push comes to shove. Wii U probably didn't affect the sales of the outgoing Xbox 360 and then the Xbox One. Switch on the other hand has probably has had some effect. 

-The name: Xbox One/Xbox One S/Xbox One X were all sucky names too. But Xbox Series X/Xbox Series S also suck as names. 

It looks like a bunch of soon-to-be-disappointed people accidentally bought Xbox One X’s today - The Verge

Some of these people might have cancelled or exchanged their orders. But I have to imagine tens of thousands of people or more either haven't bought Series X/S because they're confused what it is or even bought an Xbox One instead in confusion. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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I've seen it be anywhere between 4-6 years for console releases from a platform holder. It wasnt until the 360 that it was 8 years between it and the XBO release. Since then it seems to be about that long with the introduction of the 'mid gen' refresh around the 3-4 year mark. I was under the impression there was to be no mid gen refresh this time as Sony stated they did one just to see if they could and that they had no plans on doing it again.

If XB decides to usher in their 11th gen console in 2026... that will be 6 years after their 9th and that is a nice round number to do so. Sony prolonging their 9th gen with a mid gen system is rather pointless as things were just getting interesting with the base PS5 as it is. Adding in a slightly upgraded unit isnt really going to be taken advantage of and is a waste of $$ that could be applied towards a proper 11th gen system.



If we're here to speculate a name for a possible new early gen console for the future of Xbox. I think naming it the Xbox Mach Delta would be quite efficient and follow up nicely on their naming strategies this far.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

If there is a reason to upgrade it, this generations graphics aren't a big upgrade over the pro/one x but the ssd alone was worth the upgrade. What is Xbox or Playstation going to offer on their next console to be worth it to upgrade earlier? Are the graphics going to take a big leap, is ray tracing going to be fully realized, is a promise that every game is going to be locked 4k 60fps going to be the main offer, are they going to have a gimmick like 8k?



Launching a year earlier than the PS6 would be risky since they'd for sure be giving a power advantage to Sony making the PS6 the console to get for multiplats unless they pulled a PS3 type of move again which is unlikely. More than anything they need to come out swinging the first couple years of the next Xbox and avoid a drought and all the acquisitions should be enough for that going forward hopefully.



.....so like what Sega did with the Dreamcast? lol