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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

 

Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

Less than 7 million 43 11.91%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 7 1.94%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 11 3.05%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 29 8.03%
 
10.0 - 10.9 million 99 27.42%
 
11.0 - 11.9 million 44 12.19%
 
12.0 - 12.9 million 47 13.02%
 
13.0 - 13.9 million 20 5.54%
 
14.0 - 15.0 million 30 8.31%
 
More than 15 million 31 8.59%
 
Total:361

With this poll the trifecta is complete. Here are the previous years of the Xbox Series X|S (VGC estimates):

2020: 3.06m
2021: 8.01m
2022: 9.50m with one week left to go (211k in the comparable week in 2021)

What are your sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

...

Previous year's poll:

Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2022?

Less than 7 million 66 9.76%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 23 3.40%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 31 4.59%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 54 7.99%
 
10.0 - 10.9 million 145 21.45%
 
11.0 - 11.9 million 83 12.28%
 
12.0 - 12.9 million 92 13.61%
 
13.0 - 13.9 million 44 6.51%
 
14.0 - 15.0 million 38 5.62%
 
More than 15 million 100 14.79%
 
Total: 676

The most popular option was almost the correct one, but in general the expectations were more optimistic than the eventual reality. This means that all three sales polls for 2022 had the general consensus too high, but in none of the instances it was embarrassingly off.



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Barring more adjustments Xbox Series X|S will finish 2022 with sales around ~9.71M.

Edit: working on adjustments following Microsoft's earnings report. Not a good quarter for Xbox. 

Last edited by trunkswd - 2 days ago

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Considering Xbox Series sold around 9.5m in 2022, with no big exclusives and still limited stock, while 2023 will have better stock and at least 3 AAA exclusives (Forza Motorsport, Redfall, and Starfield), I'm going to go with 12-12.9m. Starfield alone should be able to move at least a couple million more Xbox consoles than were sold last year, the 2 most recent Bethesda games both sold over 10m copies on PS platforms (Skyrim sold like 7m on PS3 plus probably 5m+ on PS4, while VGChartz is tracking about 8m physical PS4 copies for Fallout 4 as of about 4 years ago, between digital and later life physical I would guess Fallout 4 sold at least 13m on PS4), but now the latest Bethesda game won't be on PS5 at all, stands to reason that a couple million Playstation gamers will buy an Xbox Series at some point this year just to play Starfield (especially if it reviews well) while other PS gamers will either play it on PC, play it on xCloud, or skip it. The cheaper S model is perfect for PS gamers looking for a secondary or tertiary console, and if the S has a repeat of the $250 Holiday deal from last year this Holiday, or possibly even less than $250 or an S bundle with Starfield at $250 for the Holiday, it will be and even better deal for PS gamers.

Last edited by shikamaru317 - 1 day ago

I expect it to either be flat or increase slightly YoY since I think this year's beginning will mark a downward trend for XboSeries sales because of the lackluster software output. This'll lead to a gradual catch up game as the year goes on and the release of Starfield and whatever else during Q3 will give it the necessary boost to match with this year's results.



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3rd-4th years are usually peak years for consoles so I can see it going slighlty upper than 2022, but yeah Xbox output is absolutely non-existant for several weeks now so let's see



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As PS5 supply improves, XBS sales seem to be dropping.
Series s are now available for $240, yet sales are not good.
It doesn't seem to be a win-win situation.

I expect it to be 8-10million.
Never mind the ↓ predictions.



My prediction in 2023.

SW: 27m

PS5: 24m

XBS: 12m

Hard to say.
On the one hand, chip supply improving and the arrival of some big exclusives finally might give it a boost.
On the other, the PS5 being more available could well reduce Xbox's sales as people opt for Sony instead, and if the reception for games like Starfield and Redfall is lukewarm or poor that will diminish their ability to move hardware.

I'm gonna lean toward optimism and say around 10 million.

Last edited by curl-6 - 3 days ago

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

I'm going with 12-12.9.
At the very least, Xbox will break 10 million.



More than in 2022. 12mil maybe.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

As PS5 supply improves, XBS sales seem to be dropping.
Series s are now available for $240, yet sales are not good.
It doesn't seem to be a win-win situation.

I expect it to be 8-10million.
Never mind the ↓ predictions.

Already this low ?



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me