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Forums - Sales Discussion - How much do you think the Steam Deck will sell lifetime? (Bet inside)

         

How many Steam Decks will sell lifetime?

< 25M 27 $11,735.80 77.14%
 
25M-50M 6 $1,310.01 17.14%
 
50M-75M 0 $0.00 0%
 
75M-100M 0 $0.00 0%
 
100M-125M 0 $0.00 0%
 
125M-150M 0 $0.00 0%
 
150M-175M 0 $0.00 0%
 
175M-200M 0 $0.00 0%
 
> 200M 2 $401.00 5.71%
 
 
Totals: 35 $13,446.81  
Game ends on: 03/31/2023
Enter Bet

Simple enough: How much units do you think will Valve sell over the lifetime of the Deck?

Current numbers are hard to come by. Estimation put the number at about 1.5 million at the end of may:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/how-many-steam-decks-were-sold-as-of-may-2022/ar-AAX1j7W



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30 to 50 million
Depending on how long the system lasts for
Or if valve decide/are able to, sell the system at retail like the big 3 I can see it doing higher



Thank you sir.

That'll depend on when the successor is launched, and whether it'll be a family of handhelds with a new revision launching every two years or so. Going with an optimistic 25-35 million, assuming production keeps improving.

Edit:

Valve increased production to "more than double the weekly shipments" starting at the end of June. The 1.5 million estimate is from May.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/valve-more-than-doubles-steam-deck-production

For 25-35 million to be possible, production has to continue improving, revisions have to be made and counted as one system, and it has to be supported for at least 6 years. Even then, it's an optimistic prediction. Nothing is stopping other manufacturers from entering the affordable handheld PC market and taking a piece of the pie.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 07 September 2022

I expect low sales, if I am honest. I don't see console gamers being that interested and I would guess most PC gamers want a far more powerful console.



If there was an option for less than 5 Mil, I've gone for that. Steam Deck is a niche pc machine, they should have named it like that.



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What are current numbers for Steam Deck? Why VGCHARTZ doesn't track It?



Sales estimates vary wildly. There's an article about Steam's hardware survey detecting 77,000 Steam Decks for the same timeframe in which the OP's link claims 1.5 million. Obviously, the Steam survey doesn't cover 100% of the market, but it sounds a lot more realistic that the Steam Deck had not surpassed the 1 million mark by the end of May.

The options in the poll are perplexing, to put it mildly. "Less than 25m" is an easy pick.



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A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Well they've already more or less confirmed that there will be a "next gen" version of it at some point, but assuming we count that as a seperate system from the current one I would definitely go with the lowest option here. I'd be suprised if it reaches even 20 mil, but I also don't think they expect to do the same kind of numbers as the big three, so that wouldn't necessarily make it a failure.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2022 predictions:

  • Switch - 24m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

The problem with this is that Steam Deck isn't a traditional handheld... It's a PC. And because of that and it's been confirmed by Valve that Steam Deck will have a successor sooner than later like every other PC hardware. The Steam Deck isn't something that will have the same hardware for 5-7 years but rather a product that will get iterations relatively frequently compared to consoles. So most likely, at the latest, we will have a Steam Deck 2 in 2024 imo because there's new PC hardware revision every 2-3 years. That is not to say it won't be supported for long though because remember... It's a PC and in terms of software/games support, PCs have a long lifespan.

Then you combine that with the fact that Steam Deck is only being sold through Steam and not consumer facing stores like Bestbuy and such along with limited regions (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong only started reservations last month). Then you have the manufacturing capacity of Valve being significantly lower than console companies because this is the first time they had a hardware device being this successful.

So the amount of sales should be fairly low. Most likely, 5 million but I wouldn't be surprised if it's lower. But this isn't a failure that some might suggest it would be because the sales have already exceeded expectations from what Valve was expecting. I do think as they continue reiterating with Steam Deck 2 and such, the sales figures will continue to grow gen on gen.



             

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Are we ever going to know?

Anyway, I agree that this'll be niche. Less so than say something uber-niche like Ouya because of the brand name and the novelty of playing PC games on a handheld, but I think they could be happy with say 10M. Voting the lowest option.