Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD Prediction: BotW will actually Sell 35mil Lifetime

BotW will actually sell around

23mil or under 3 10.34%
 
25mil 9 31.03%
 
27mil 5 17.24%
 
29mil 6 20.69%
 
31mil 4 13.79%
 
33mil 0 0.00%
 
35mil or more 2 6.90%
 
Total:29


Currently NSW is at 55.77mil and BotW is roughly around 19.4mil (17.41mil NSW/*2mil on WiiU).

Before Zelda highest peak in sales were Twilight Princess (over 8mil with gcn sky) and OoT (just under 8mil). BotW not only is the first game to go over 10mil, but it’s already going to break 20mil which is Nintendo biggest franchise jump in the franchise this generation (AC might be first though). But now, forget the major leagues, let’s aim for the God Leagues (30mil+)

First off, games that hit over 30mil isn’t great at all. Even huge mega multiplat don’t hit this if your not made from Rockstar (GTA/RDR). Also examples are MK Wii (soon MK8D), Pokemon RGB, Wii Sports, Tetris, Minecraft.

Let’s breakdown Zelda Quarter Sales (and don’t forget wiiu sku to add afterwards)


Sales by Quarter
2760k Q4 2016
1160k Q1 2017
770k Q2 2017
2010k Q3 2017
1780k Q4 2017
840k Q1 2018
960k Q2 2018
1400k Q3 2018
1090k Q4 2018
840k Q1 2019
930k Q2 2019
1800k Q3 2019
1070k Q4 2019

Now I’m guessing there will be a budget release with dlc included but after 2022. And BotW won’t cut off legs.

post your thoughts, I’m expecting at least 30mil combined with the wiiu version (2mil sales estimate)



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Btw I was originally going to do 30mil but Rol always calls me out for not being bold enough. Now he shouldn’t have a problem 🤣



I kind could see it happening for real, but once BOTW 2 came out BOTW will slow down. Not at first though. At first and like 2 quarters I guess the BOTW will actually have a boost in sales thanks to the hype and buzz of the new release, and specially if there is a bundled version of both games with a healthy discount like 100 dollars for both

However once that hype vanish, unless the sequel end being very underwhelming I don't see newer Switch owners buying BOTW instead of BOTW 2, so yeah, even selling something like 7 million in 2020 and 2021 combined (26 million at that point), I still don't see it selling another 9 million in the last Switch days (2022,2023,2024) thanks to cannibalization against BOTW 2

I agree with your 30 million prediction though



IcaroRibeiro said:
I kind could see it happening for real, but once BOTW 2 came out BOTW will slow down. Not at first though. At first and like 2 quarters I guess the BOTW will actually have a boost in sales thanks to the hype and buzz of the new release, and specially if there is a bundled version of both games with a healthy discount like 100 dollars for both

However once that hype vanish, unless the sequel end being very underwhelming I don't see newer Switch owners buying BOTW instead of BOTW 2, so yeah, even selling something like 7 million in 2020 and 2021 combined (26 million at that point), I still don't see it selling another 9 million in the last Switch days (2022,2023,2024) thanks to cannibalization against BOTW 2

I agree with your 30 million prediction though

One thing to keep in mind however, is that people will not buy BotW2 in place of the first one.  BotW2 could actually drive sales of the first game for those who did not play it.  Maybe not right at launch, but as they finish BotW2 many who started with it will go back and play the first game as a prequel in their own minds.  Especially being a direct sequel, most people would want the full experience (both games).



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I say let it reach the 25M threshold first. I don't think 30M copies is beyond the impossible for this game but 35M might be just a tad bit much.



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30m is a possibility although that still remains to be seen.
35 million is too much to ask for although you wont see me complaining if it reaches it!
In order to do so the switch version will have to double the sales it already has. Meaning it needs to sell the same amount in the nest 3-4 years as it did in the first 3 years. I dont see that happening.



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Too rich for my blood. I fold.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 10 May 2020

haha I don't see 35 million happening. But 25+ is guaranteed at this point. I think 27 million is pretty much a given as well. I voted 29 million. I could see it maybe just creeping by 30 million after the Switch 2 has launched, but I say zero chance at 35.

Should hit 20 mil this year. Let's say 24 next year. But then Switch sales will likely start slowing and Zelda sales with it. So I'd say 27 in 2022, 29 in 2023. And if Switch 2 doesn't launch until early 2024 then yeah I could see it passing 30 mil and maybe finishing at 31 mil. So depending on when Switch 2 launches I'd say 29 - 31 million.



This is too steep for me. I see it reaching 30m but not much more than that. Only Mario Kart and Animal Crossing can cross 35m imo.



Like I said in the other thread. I really only think MK8D will pass 30 million eventually. I would love to be wrong though.



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