Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

After the Switch presentation last year, my prediction was 70 million. That's probably too low, but I don't want to change it yet. 100 million still seems a bit too high though.

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That depends on two things. First two years sales figures and the sales curve. On average Nintendo systems seem to have their peaks in year one (3DS, Wii U, GCN, N64, GBA) or year two (Wii, SNES). Presuming that they'll reach Switch's 14 million target (the same as 3DS and Wii Y1 figures BTW), it can either follow year-one-peak curve, and in this case we're talking 3DS numbers (70-80 mil) or year-two-peak curve (100+ mil). Of course there's always the 3rd option ... the DS-Lite-factor. It's unlikely, but who knows. Anyways, it definitely has potential to be 100 million seller, but at the present time, it's just an educated guess. Next year though, we should see much clearer picture.

I think it really depends on how much life is in this current generation of consoles and how the industry adapts.

Under the current trends the main industry as whole may not be able to sustain itself with all these 4K/VR projects even with the DLC/Loot Box/Games as Service models attached. The indies and more economic Japanese productions can possibly keep it around for a while but Nintendo may ultimately have to bring out new hardware before the Switch hits 100 even with the current success.

If this generation drags for another 3-4 years, I can see it get close, but I can't help but think either Sony or MS will pull the trigger on a new system before that, especially if it starts looking like the Switch is eating their lunch.

menx64 said:
Calling numbers now it is difficult, but with a solid lineup, I belive 50 millons is not out of the question... Beyond that... It has to be a perfect storm tbh.

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With the holidays coming, I expect around 51m shipped after Q3 FY2020.

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Well, it should be halfway there by the next financial update.

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