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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

newwil7l on 21 January 2018
flashfire926 said:
newwil7l said:

You are basing this off what? There is no evidence it would have sold much worse.

He literally just said what he bases this off of.

3DS only did 750k  this December in the US cause of Pokemon US/UM. It wouldn't stand a chance without those games.

3DS was up yoy in 2016 because of pokemon go/sun moon. Despite not having that many huge sellers that year.

3DS would be at like ~35 million without pokemon.

3DS did not have a monster December because of Pokemon lol. If that was the case 3DS would have had a bigger one last year when Sun/Moon released. 



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flashfire926 on 21 January 2018
fatslob-:O said:
Wyrdness said:

They are comparable because they're different skus of the same platform, Pro could easily have exclusive library if need be Sony just don't want that, GBC was an sku aimed at extending the life of the GB platform because the GBA got delayed due to r&d issues and extreme costs due to the long delay that had turned up Nintendo allowed developers to create GBC focused games this extended the GB platform's life for another 4 years until the GBA r&d and costs had been sorted out and become viable.

They choose not to and Microsoft does the same because such fragmentation will automatically differentiate the two systems into their own separate platforms ... 

I can access the same games and content from the PS4 Pro as a regular PS4 user (Even HDR is supported for the original system too!) but I can not do the same thing as a GB user who wants access to GBC games or GBC specific content ... 

So effectively the same as 3ds and new 3ds.....

Doesn't mean that they don't qualify as a single handheld, however.

It's just a more expensive version with some perks, that all.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

JWeinCom on 21 January 2018

A week ago I would have said absolutely no chance of 100 million. After the Labo announcement, I'm considering it.

Mind you, I'm not expecting Labo on its own to push millions of Switch's, but it shows that Nintendo still has some good ideas on how to reach outside the "core" gamer market. Makes me wonder what else they have in mind.



zorg1000 on 21 January 2018
newwil7l said:
flashfire926 said:

He literally just said what he bases this off of.

3DS only did 750k  this December in the US cause of Pokemon US/UM. It wouldn't stand a chance without those games.

3DS was up yoy in 2016 because of pokemon go/sun moon. Despite not having that many huge sellers that year.

3DS would be at like ~35 million without pokemon.

3DS did not have a monster December because of Pokemon lol. If that was the case 3DS would have had a bigger one last year when Sun/Moon released. 

Actually there was a 3DS shortage last holiday.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/circuitbreaker/2017/2/7/14526666/nintendo-new-3ds-xl-stock-issues-sold-out-switch-third-party-grey-market&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAIegQIFRAB&usg=AOvVaw1iEHgwKzMDYpmtOrUJEpJn&ampcf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.polygon.com/platform/amp/2016/12/19/14006908/where-to-buy-a-nintendo-3ds&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjALegQIEBAB&usg=AOvVaw1EVg3paIjk7SzYGVmarOrV&ampcf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://en-americas-support.nintendo.com/app/social/questions/detail/qid/48023/~/obtaining-the-new-nintendo-3ds-xl&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAKegQIERAB&usg=AOvVaw3933_11_uAaPRV8rgKwhBp



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

BillyBong on 21 January 2018
Wyrdness said:
BillyBong said:

Eh.. I don't think they'll get to 100m+. I'm only saying it because of the still shoddy 3rd party support overall for Ninty. Ninty 1st party can only offer so much at a time. The times in between releases will be tough without big 3rd party hitters.
Look at MS.. they can stay afloat even without much 1st party games because of the big 3rd party games that comes to their system too. PS has a good mix of 1st and 3rd. I sense there will be dry spells in between ninty's big releases.. that could affect momentum.

 

They are definitely starting out strong but that was expected with releases like Zelda BOTW, Mario Odyssey, and Splatoon 2.  But it's almost like the big cards were dropped in it's first year.  What will it have to offer in the next year or 2 to keep momentum?.  

Neither Wii nor DS needed heavy third party support to get to 100m, 3DS has had decent level of support and manage to hit 70m (will finish at 75-80m at the end of things) even after the early troubles.

People thinking third parties will dictate hitting that mile stone are mistaken Nintendo really only ever need enough filler titles between first party title to be fine as its their first party that sell the platform not third party. Far all big cards are used, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi, Metroid etc... You even mentioned Splatoon 2 which is a new IP only established 3 years ago what's to say more like it aren't on the way.

As good as some of those other games are, they're not exactly system sellers. 

This isn't a bash on ninty's games or game quality, but whether or not they'll hit the 100m mark when it's all said and done.  I just don't see it without 3rd  party support for the inbetween big ninty releases.  Guesss time will tell if it ends up doing Wii or WiiU numbers.  Wii had a great motion control gimmick that made it a seller for families with small kids.  That helped paved the way for a decent 3rd party support line even if there  was a lot of shovelware. . Will have to see if the portability schtick will play as important a factor for the switch.

Last edited by BillyBong - on 21 January 2018

Man.. I hate it when your girl has to leave my place to come back to you..

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newwil7l on 21 January 2018
zorg1000 said:
newwil7l said:

3DS did not have a monster December because of Pokemon lol. If that was the case 3DS would have had a bigger one last year when Sun/Moon released. 

Actually there was a 3DS shortage last holiday.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/circuitbreaker/2017/2/7/14526666/nintendo-new-3ds-xl-stock-issues-sold-out-switch-third-party-grey-market&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAIegQIFRAB&usg=AOvVaw1iEHgwKzMDYpmtOrUJEpJn&cf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.polygon.com/platform/amp/2016/12/19/14006908/where-to-buy-a-nintendo-3ds&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjALegQIEBAB&usg=AOvVaw1EVg3paIjk7SzYGVmarOrV&cf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://en-americas-support.nintendo.com/app/social/questions/detail/qid/48023/~/obtaining-the-new-nintendo-3ds-xl&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAKegQIERAB&usg=AOvVaw3933_11_uAaPRV8rgKwhBp

A shortage that changed the tides by over 300K?



zorg1000 on 21 January 2018
newwil7l said:
zorg1000 said:

Actually there was a 3DS shortage last holiday.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/circuitbreaker/2017/2/7/14526666/nintendo-new-3ds-xl-stock-issues-sold-out-switch-third-party-grey-market&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAIegQIFRAB&usg=AOvVaw1iEHgwKzMDYpmtOrUJEpJn&cf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.polygon.com/platform/amp/2016/12/19/14006908/where-to-buy-a-nintendo-3ds&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjALegQIEBAB&usg=AOvVaw1EVg3paIjk7SzYGVmarOrV&cf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://en-americas-support.nintendo.com/app/social/questions/detail/qid/48023/~/obtaining-the-new-nintendo-3ds-xl&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAKegQIERAB&usg=AOvVaw3933_11_uAaPRV8rgKwhBp

A shortage that changed the tides by over 300K?

Possibly, it was difficult to find a 3DS in holiday 2016 and even the first few months of 2017.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Wyrdness on 21 January 2018
BillyBong said:
Wyrdness said:

Neither Wii nor DS needed heavy third party support to get to 100m, 3DS has had decent level of support and manage to hit 70m (will finish at 75-80m at the end of things) even after the early troubles.

People thinking third parties will dictate hitting that mile stone are mistaken Nintendo really only ever need enough filler titles between first party title to be fine as its their first party that sell the platform not third party. Far all big cards are used, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi, Metroid etc... You even mentioned Splatoon 2 which is a new IP only established 3 years ago what's to say more like it aren't on the way.

As good as some of those other games are, they're not exactly system sellers. 

This isn't a bash on ninty's games or game quality, but whether or not they'll hit the 100m mark when it's all said and done.  Guess time will tell if it ends up doing Wii or WiiU numbers.  Wii had a great motion control gimmick that made it a seller for families with small kids.  Will have to see if the portability schtick will play as important a factor. 

Except those games are system sellers more so than Mario and Zelda, Fire Emblem causes hardware spikes in Japan, Pokemon and AC are 10m sellers on average and Tomodachi shifts 5-6m only Metroid remains to be seen if it can move systems, the Switch can't do Wii U numbers because going by the shipped total by analysts it's already outsold the Wii U.



flashfire926 on 21 January 2018
newwil7l said:
flashfire926 said:

He literally just said what he bases this off of.

3DS only did 750k  this December in the US cause of Pokemon US/UM. It wouldn't stand a chance without those games.

3DS was up yoy in 2016 because of pokemon go/sun moon. Despite not having that many huge sellers that year.

3DS would be at like ~35 million without pokemon.

3DS did not have a monster December because of Pokemon lol. If that was the case 3DS would have had a bigger one last year when Sun/Moon released. 

The increase from last year is because  the term "nintendo" is way more relevant this holiday than last holiday, thanks to the switch, which adds on to the pokemon effect.

In the US (and probably most other territories too, the best selling 3DS games this year, as per npd goes like this:

  1. Pokemon: Ultra Sun
  2. Pokemon: Ultra Moon
  3. Pokemon: Sun
  4. Pokemon: Moon
  5. Super Mario Maker
  6. Metroid: Samus Returns
  7. Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia
  8. Super Smash Bros.
  9. Mario Kart 7
  10. Poochy and Yoshi's Wolly World
To say pokemon is not the driving force of 3ds sales is beyond stupid.
Edit: and as like zorg1000 said, there were 3ds shortages late last year as well.


Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

gabzjmm23 on 21 January 2018

100+ million units? it is still too high, I'm just glad that the first year, it could outsell the WiiU lifetime sales, barring any shortages.
Overall it is a good first year, but the second year Nintendo needs the big hitters - Smash and/or Pokemon. I couldn't see any other IP that could push it in millions on the western market. Yokai Switch could be a good one on Japan but Yokai numbers are going down as well. Hence Level 5 needs to rethink or re-capture the audience that bought the 1st game. They need new mechanics or so.

There are a ton of other IPs but it won't sell that much like Pokemon or Smash. And we won't have a new Mario Kart soon. If the second year is better than the first, then it might reach DS level total sales number.