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2020: The peek of the Switch?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 2020: The peek of the Switch?

One thing I noticed about Nintendo's software strategy with the Switch is that they gradually build upon it little by little each year with a different focus. 2017 focused on wooing hardcore Nintendo fans with Long-awaited fan favorites like a the next gen Zelda, Mario Odyssey, and Splatoon 2, plus the newcomer, ARMS. 2018 was about establishing the Switch's more relaxed side with things like Nintendo Labo, Super Mario Party, Mario Tennis, and Pokemon Let's Go!, as well as getting those who skipped the Wii U all caught up on some of its better titles. So far, 2019 is all about roping in non-Nintendo fan gamers from other systems with games like Marvel UA3, Daemon X Machina, Astral Chain, more timely released/fan favorite third party games, as well as younger players just coming off of the 3DS with Yoshi, 2D Zelda, Box-Boy and Pokemon Sword and Shield.

If the logic is sound, then by my calculations, 2020 is when everything will really come full circle. I expect next year will be when the Switch will have everything from its first 3 years all rolled into a single year. The casual stuff with Animal Crossing, the stuff for hardcore Nintendo fans with Breath of the Wild 2 (if it makes 2020 that is), the third party support of 2019, the handheld style games, and any new games and IP that fit those categories, all in a single year. Each year also has featured more and more First party games each month, so 2020 is probably going to where everything crescendos for the Switch.



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I think sales wise this fiscal year will be the peak.

Breath of the Wild 2 is cool and all but if you're talking sales, like the majority of people who like Zelda own a Switch as BOTW is by far the best selling Zelda game already. 


2020 will probably see a bit of a decline but still solid sales, 2021 will definitely likely show a downtrend in sales.



I think you are reading too much into it, but hey, maybe



2020's focus also, hate to say it in the gaming world will be the PS5/XB2 launches, they're the new systems, they will get the lion's share of attention. Particularly the PS5 as it is the successor to the market leading platform.



I have said 2019 might be the peak previously, but with Nintendo's sales forecast I think they can do better in 2020. Nintendo consoles peak earlier.



LTD Sales Predictions: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m
2019 Sales : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m
2020 Sales: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

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Soundwave said:
2020's focus also, hate to say it in the gaming world will be the PS5/XB2 launches, they're the new systems, they will get the lion's share of attention. Particularly the PS5 as it is the successor to the market leading platform.

Next-Gen consoles will have the novelty of new hardware on their side. But the Switch can still hold its own so long as Nintendo continues with good software. Content is ultimately what matters at the end of the day.



Hmm, I think the yearly focus you see is coincidence. Most likely Nintendo just releases what is ready. A few patterns do emerge though:

1. I am pretty sure Nintendo planned about their big hitters Zelda, Mario and Smash. So they planned to release with Zelda, fill out the first year with Mario and the second with Smash. That probably was deliberate.
2. I always get the impression Gamefreak does whatever. As long as Pokemon sells Nintendo probably is willing to let them. Some spinoff titles from the Pokemon Company are probably more under Nintendos control, but the mainline Pokemons are Gamefreaks deal. So Pokemon is ready this year, because Gamefreak needed until now to get it ready. I have the feeling Gamefreak was testing some stuff with Let's Go.
3. Third party support need more time to ramp up than first party. Reluctant third parties that jumped on the ship after the Switch took off probably needed until now to get their stuff ported. And so we see more 3rd-party ports, also more ambitious stuff.
4. That you put WiiU ports in the second year is obviously wrong, they happened in 2017 too. WiiU ports are just cheap ways to get more money off the development of these titles that not many played on WiiU. They will be sprinkled in here and where, this continues this year (NSMBUD) and maybe even still next year.

The rest is just: we release it when it is ready. Metroid Prime probably was planned for this year, but needed to be scrapped. We know Animal Crossing got delayed. Bayonetta maybe was delayed, they never mentioned a date before so we don't know. I have a strong feeling Luigis Mansion probably should've been propping up last years lineup (which looked light in comparison). But development takes times, sometimes more than planned. So these games get released then they are ready.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

TheMisterManGuy said:
Soundwave said:
2020's focus also, hate to say it in the gaming world will be the PS5/XB2 launches, they're the new systems, they will get the lion's share of attention. Particularly the PS5 as it is the successor to the market leading platform.

Next-Gen consoles will have the novelty of new hardware on their side. But the Switch can still hold its own so long as Nintendo continues with good software. Content is ultimately what matters at the end of the day.

New hardware, specifically hardware that is a new console generation, isn't a novelty. Never has been. 

Because Sony/MS basically get near 99% of third party titles, the "content" isn't really ever a problem for them. PS5 will have hundreds of good games, that's the benefit you get from being the no.1 platform for hundreds of devs all over the world. 



Gotta keep in mind as well that if the Switch Lite is on the horizon in 2020 you'll see a lot of people who have the original model for 2 years of gaming now wanting to jump over and buy a new system, especially if people have a Switch where the joy con's aren't as sharp as they used to be with regards ghosting of the sticks, you are looking at either paying 80 for a new pair of joy cons or else consider waiting a few months and just getting a new lite Switch model and maybe relagating the older unit into the dock for home play or.... hack the thing for homebrew and piracy. I'm just saying when the DSLite came out almost everyone who had an original DS system also went on to buy a Lite as well, so you are looking at around 35-40million Switch owners at that stage who'll see the new model and think of the upgrade as well as new customers into the eco system.

Not to mention that will cause a spike in games as well as a new model would cause a spike of used Switch models hitting second hand stores, pushing down the prices of them and opening up the system to gamers on a tighter budget who couldn't commit at the 300e level but would go for a "old" version for 1/3 of that pre owned.



Fancy hearing me on an amateur podcast with friends gushing over one of my favourite games? https://youtu.be/1I7JfMMxhf8

With PS5 + XB2 launching in 2020.... I think 2019 is the "peak year" for the Switch.

However that doesnt mean its sales will fall off a cliff in 2020, though I suspect by 2021 its sales will have dropped alot.