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Will Mario Maker 2 become a 10+ million seller?

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I predict it will sell...

Less than 10 million 22 20.56%
 
Over 10 million 85 79.44%
 
Total:107
Mnementh said:
According to VGC Super Mario Maker sold 3.45 million copies on WiiU and 3.23 million on 3DS (most of the owners of the two versions are probably the same). Given, with digital sales on WiiU might be at 4 million. But selling more double and half in the next installment seems a bit much.

For comparison: VGC has Splatoon at 4.71 million, Nintendo reported Splatoon 2 at 8.27 million copies end of December. So a software that was a new IP on WiiU like Mario Maker, that has sold more on WiiU and got like Mario Maker an expanded sequel. Yet, it failed to reach 10M. And it seems unlikely Splatoon will get there, 2M left is a big chunk of sales to make.

So no, I think it is unlikely Mario Maker 2 will reach 10 million. It is very likely it will sell more than 5 million, it may even double sales, but 10M seems to far out of reach.

Somebody doesn't seem to know how Nintendo legs work. Splatoon will easily cross 10 million. Probably by this year.



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It will do 10 million easily this year.



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I voted no, my estimation is 8-10M.
Sales were 3,45M on Wii U...I add a 1,5 coef because of a stronger marketing and the natural progression of a beloved Nintendo IP, and another x1,75 coef because every portages/sequels from WiiU to Switch seems to easily do a 1,5-2 times increase. So 3,45 x 1,5 x 1,75 = 9,06M



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Amnesia said:

I voted no, my estimation is 8-10M.
Sales were 3,45M on Wii U...I add a 1,5 coef because of a stronger marketing and the natural progression of a beloved Nintendo IP, and another x1,75 coef because every portages/sequels from WiiU to Switch seems to easily do a 1,5-2 times increase. So 3,45 x 1,5 x 1,75 = 9,06M

Sold 4 million exactly using Nintendo numbers 



I am predicting approximately 100 billion sales LT.



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MasonADC said:
Amnesia said:

I voted no, my estimation is 8-10M.
Sales were 3,45M on Wii U...I add a 1,5 coef because of a stronger marketing and the natural progression of a beloved Nintendo IP, and another x1,75 coef because every portages/sequels from WiiU to Switch seems to easily do a 1,5-2 times increase. So 3,45 x 1,5 x 1,75 = 9,06M

Sold 4 million exactly using Nintendo numbers 

Ah ok..So 4x1,5x1,75 = 10,5
There you have it :D



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (World Record)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

RolStoppable said:
No. It's a level editor and will rely on usergenerated content. Most fans of 2D Mario will skip the game because they want professional content AND coherent world building, that's why the included professional levels in Super Mario Maker 2 won't be good enough.

 

Mnementh said:

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.

So basically, the idea is that due to its reliance on user-created levels, it will not appeal to the primary 2D Mario audience who want a full-game's worth of professional levels ready-made for them? Won't the user-creation aspect draw in an additional audience of its own though, spreading through the showing off of custom levels on Youtube and such in much the same way as Minecraft, where kids will see some crazy user-created level and want to try it for themselves?



10 million is going to be the bare minimum!



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curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:
No. It's a level editor and will rely on usergenerated content. Most fans of 2D Mario will skip the game because they want professional content AND coherent world building, that's why the included professional levels in Super Mario Maker 2 won't be good enough.

 

Mnementh said:

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.

So basically, the idea is that due to its reliance on user-created levels, it will not appeal to the primary 2D Mario audience who want a full-game's worth of professional levels ready-made for them? Won't the user-creation aspect draw in an additional audience of its own though, spreading through the showing off of custom levels on Youtube and such in much the same way as Minecraft, where kids will see some crazy user-created level and want to try it for themselves?

I hope they add in a way to link your levels in a sort of "campaign" fashion, that would probably make it appeal even more to the 2D Mario audience.



I bet in the same of splatoon.
The sequel in a popular system that manage to get 10 M.
I think It will have long legs, and take like 3 years to get to 10 M.