I think it probably will. It was a game that was really held back by the lackluster WiiU, but people were interested, and it was one of the only things on WiiU that actually saw some hype.

Personally I loved the original, and before Breath of the Wild it was easily my most played WiiU game. Building levels was great! I’ll get the second game as well, but I am wondering how much I’ll be able to play without an online subscription...

i say its even going to do 15m life time. First game was popular as hell on a console no one cared about. Now you stick that winning formula on a device people care for? oh ya its gonna sell tons

Yes. Mario Maker sold 4+ million copies on the WiiU, so it can certainly make more on a console that will have many times the WiiU's numbers.

According to VGC Super Mario Maker sold 3.45 million copies on WiiU and 3.23 million on 3DS (most of the owners of the two versions are probably the same). Given, with digital sales on WiiU might be at 4 million. But selling more double and half in the next installment seems a bit much.

For comparison: VGC has Splatoon at 4.71 million, Nintendo reported Splatoon 2 at 8.27 million copies end of December. So a software that was a new IP on WiiU like Mario Maker, that has sold more on WiiU and got like Mario Maker an expanded sequel. Yet, it failed to reach 10M. And it seems unlikely Splatoon will get there, 2M left is a big chunk of sales to make.

So no, I think it is unlikely Mario Maker 2 will reach 10 million. It is very likely it will sell more than 5 million, it may even double sales, but 10M seems to far out of reach.

Incoming 10mil in 1 month prediction from Tbone!

Perhaps it will beat the Wii U version in 1 month. 

It’s 2D Mario, and the first new 2D Mario on Switch. That’s enough said imo

The question is if it will do it before 2020.

Considering the sales of the first game on the WiiU, I believe it has the potential to reach those numbers, specially after people start sharing their creations around the internet.

MAybe not at first, but I'm sure it will leg out to over 10M with time.