Exactly, I am foreseeing that being the case too.

I don't know about the 24M in FY2019 though, but I am almost certain that if they insist on shipping out 20M (and are even able too cause stores have to accept those shipments for that to work) then they will have to ship less overall in the next FY. Just like sony did last year or so. Its not the end of the world though.

However there is still time, at the quarter report in january they can revise their shipments down by like 1M or just leave it as is.

You don't need to preach to the choir... I know it is FY and shipment. Still if Nintendo ends up the calendar year much close to PS4 it will be hard to see why they would ship 2.5M more on the next quarter, after the bigger part of sales was made and just stuff the channel for bragging rights and then need to cut down shipment for the next 1 or 2 quarters and end up doing a much lower projection for the next year and look as already in decline.

Also shipments aren't fruit of solely manufacturer wish, they need stores to order and not only they can't overship forever they also really need to see the flow of units to really require.

I really don't understand the reasoning behind this whole Switch closing in and overall year sales being similar.

The Switch is currently 3M behind. When people talk about it closing in is it that they forget that the PS4 isn't going to just stop selling hardware during the holidays? 

So far the PS4 has outsold the NS globally every month of 2018. For the Switch to "close in" it has to at least win Nov-dec combined even if its by 100k and that will only dent the PS4s 3M lead by 100k. To be close to the PS4 it has to outsell the PS4 globally for those two months by around 2.5M - 3M. OUTSELL. 

I am sorry but I just don't see that happening. If by the end of Nov the PS4 also wins globally again then that lead increases making the NS have even more to do cme december.

So I am not trying to be funny, I am just really curious to know how anyone thinks the NS is gonna pull this feat off. What is the NS gonna do to outsell the PS4 by 3M units in nov and Dec alone?3 

If this included digital the PS4 would be EVEN further ahead. 

Probably.

Yeah, I have doubts myself Nintendo will reach their shipment goal. But even if PS4 edges out a win in sales in 2018 it could in the end mean shipments are higher for Switch. Because, as I said, pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it's the other way around. It does not have to do anything with channel stuffing though, retailers simply order more if they see increasing sales, while with plummeting sales they are more hesitant and reduce their stock.

Nope, you get me wrong. Yes, I assume the holidays are bigger for the Switch than the PS4, so the gap will reduce. But it is hard to close 3M. But even then sales of the Switch are lagging behind, shipments might be a lot closer, because as I said: pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it is the other way. PS4 is post it's peak, Switch is pre-peak. So while in sales PS4 might win 2018, shipments might be much closer or even reversed. And then for the FY we still have another quarter. As the talk was about the projections of Sony and Nintendo, I considered shipments, because the projections are for that.

To be precise: shipments of Switch could be 1 million above sales for the FY, while for PS4 shipments could be one million below sales. If you look in the past, in the first years shipments for PS4 also outdid the sales. It's a pretty consistent pattern for all consoles.

Yes I agree that PS4 may sell more than Switch but ship less because PS4 already had more in channel and is expected to start declining. But from like PS4 selling 18M shipping 16M (sure now after revisions could be 18.5M sold and 18M shipped) and Switch selling 17M and shipping 20M would be quite the odd occurrence.