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Forums - Sales Discussion - Worldwide Charts Yearly Total - October 13th

CuCabeludo said:
Does it include digital? Physical retail sales alone are becoming mroe and more meaningless. More games selling digitally today.

If this included digital the PS4 would be EVEN further ahead. 



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Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

I haven't mixed both. But considering Switch isn't at scarcity anymore with months without Switch easily available it already have over 1M in the channels, so if they sell 17-18M on the FY and ship another 2-3M for the stuffing the channels they would have issues for the next fiscal year.

Do you really think 1) stores are going to request so much over their need to help Nintendo stuff the channels and 2) will it look good when Nintendo make a projection for FY19 much lower than FY18 and end up looking as they are in decline?

The only way this would make sense is that they think they will sell like 24M in FY19 and only be able to produce like another 20-21M, so they need the extra production during this FY to have enough stock.[(

Exactly, I am foreseeing that being the case too.

I don't know about the 24M in FY2019 though, but I am almost certain that if they insist on shipping out 20M (and are even able too cause stores have to accept those shipments for that to work) then they will have to ship less overall in the next FY. Just like sony did last year or so. Its not the end of the world though.

However there is still time, at the quarter report in january they can revise their shipments down by like 1M or just leave it as is.

And it's quite different to have your forecast of year 5 lower than year 4 (and not that much, with they still shipping more than projected every year so far) than to forecast year 3 below 2 and by considerable amount while not keeping up.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Mnementh said:

These 16M and 20M projection are a) for the financial year (ending in March) and b) shipments. Thing about shipments is: early in the life of a console the shipments are bigger than the sales, after the peak sales are bigger than shipments. So going from these projection for the financial year, we still have to conclude big holidays for Ninty, but also big quarter in the new year (after Pokemon and Smash and with NSMBUD releasing). I think with all considered, that Nintendo closely missing it's projection while Sony outdoes it, the Switch will close in on PS4 in the holidays, os that overall years sales are close to each other and Switch does a lot better than PS4 in Q1 2019.

You don't need to preach to the choir... I know it is FY and shipment. Still if Nintendo ends up the calendar year much close to PS4 it will be hard to see why they would ship 2.5M more on the next quarter, after the bigger part of sales was made and just stuff the channel for bragging rights and then need to cut down shipment for the next 1 or 2 quarters and end up doing a much lower projection for the next year and look as already in decline.

Also shipments aren't fruit of solely manufacturer wish, they need stores to order and not only they can't overship forever they also really need to see the flow of units to really require.

Yeah, I have doubts myself Nintendo will reach their shipment goal. But even if PS4 edges out a win in sales in 2018 it could in the end mean shipments are higher for Switch. Because, as I said, pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it's the other way around. It does not have to do anything with channel stuffing though, retailers simply order more if they see increasing sales, while with plummeting sales they are more hesitant and reduce their stock.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Intrinsic said:
Mnementh said:

These 16M and 20M projection are a) for the financial year (ending in March) and b) shipments. Thing about shipments is: early in the life of a console the shipments are bigger than the sales, after the peak sales are bigger than shipments. So going from these projection for the financial year, we still have to conclude big holidays for Ninty, but also big quarter in the new year (after Pokemon and Smash and with NSMBUD releasing). I think with all considered, that Nintendo closely missing it's projection while Sony outdoes it, the Switch will close in on PS4 in the holidays, os that overall years sales are close to each other and Switch does a lot better than PS4 in Q1 2019.

I really don't understand the reasoning behind this whole Switch closing in and overall year sales being similar.

The Switch is currently 3M behind. When people talk about it closing in is it that they forget that the PS4 isn't going to just stop selling hardware during the holidays? 

So far the PS4 has outsold the NS globally every month of 2018. For the Switch to "close in" it has to at least win Nov-dec combined even if its by 100k and that will only dent the PS4s 3M lead by 100k. To be close to the PS4 it has to outsell the PS4 globally for those two months by around 2.5M - 3M. OUTSELL. 

I am sorry but I just don't see that happening. If by the end of Nov the PS4 also wins globally again then that lead increases making the NS have even more to do cme december.

So I am not trying to be funny, I am just really curious to know how anyone thinks the NS is gonna pull this feat off. What is the NS gonna do to outsell the PS4 by 3M units in nov and Dec alone?3 

Nope, you get me wrong. Yes, I assume the holidays are bigger for the Switch than the PS4, so the gap will reduce. But it is hard to close 3M. But even then sales of the Switch are lagging behind, shipments might be a lot closer, because as I said: pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it is the other way. PS4 is post it's peak, Switch is pre-peak. So while in sales PS4 might win 2018, shipments might be much closer or even reversed. And then for the FY we still have another quarter. As the talk was about the projections of Sony and Nintendo, I considered shipments, because the projections are for that.

To be precise: shipments of Switch could be 1 million above sales for the FY, while for PS4 shipments could be one million below sales. If you look in the past, in the first years shipments for PS4 also outdid the sales. It's a pretty consistent pattern for all consoles.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 27 November 2018

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Kerotan said:
CuCabeludo said:
Does it include digital? Physical retail sales alone are becoming mroe and more meaningless. More games selling digitally today.

If this included digital the PS4 would be EVEN further ahead. 

Probably.



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Keiji said:
Kerotan said:

If this included digital the PS4 would be EVEN further ahead. 

Probably.

Definitely. Ps4 sells a fuck ton more games digitally then switch or ps4. 90m install base. They can't compete. 



Mnementh said:
DonFerrari said:

You don't need to preach to the choir... I know it is FY and shipment. Still if Nintendo ends up the calendar year much close to PS4 it will be hard to see why they would ship 2.5M more on the next quarter, after the bigger part of sales was made and just stuff the channel for bragging rights and then need to cut down shipment for the next 1 or 2 quarters and end up doing a much lower projection for the next year and look as already in decline.

Also shipments aren't fruit of solely manufacturer wish, they need stores to order and not only they can't overship forever they also really need to see the flow of units to really require.

Yeah, I have doubts myself Nintendo will reach their shipment goal. But even if PS4 edges out a win in sales in 2018 it could in the end mean shipments are higher for Switch. Because, as I said, pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it's the other way around. It does not have to do anything with channel stuffing though, retailers simply order more if they see increasing sales, while with plummeting sales they are more hesitant and reduce their stock.

Yes I agree that PS4 may sell more than Switch but ship less because PS4 already had more in channel and is expected to start declining. But from like PS4 selling 18M shipping 16M (sure now after revisions could be 18.5M sold and 18M shipped) and Switch selling 17M and shipping 20M would be quite the odd occurrence. 



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

It's interesting... according to Sony, PS4 shipped 9.6m this year, while according to Nintendo, Switch did 8m.

With that in mind, I think a comeback is totally possible these holidays, especially thanks to December.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Mnementh said:

Nope, you get me wrong. Yes, I assume the holidays are bigger for the Switch than the PS4, so the gap will reduce. But it is hard to close 3M. But even then sales of the Switch are lagging behind, shipments might be a lot closer, because as I said: pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it is the other way. PS4 is post it's peak, Switch is pre-peak. So while in sales PS4 might win 2018, shipments might be much closer or even reversed. And then for the FY we still have another quarter. As the talk was about the projections of Sony and Nintendo, I considered shipments, because the projections are for that.

To be precise: shipments of Switch could be 1 million above sales for the FY, while for PS4 shipments could be one million below sales. If you look in the past, in the first years shipments for PS4 also outdid the sales. It's a pretty consistent pattern for all consoles.

Ok then, my bad. On this note I totally agree with you. NS shipments should be higher than PS4 shipments. Hell, just ging by the FY announced shipments alone thats already showing to be the case. 17.5M for the PS4 and 20M for the NS.



DonFerrari said:
Mnementh said:

Yeah, I have doubts myself Nintendo will reach their shipment goal. But even if PS4 edges out a win in sales in 2018 it could in the end mean shipments are higher for Switch. Because, as I said, pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it's the other way around. It does not have to do anything with channel stuffing though, retailers simply order more if they see increasing sales, while with plummeting sales they are more hesitant and reduce their stock.

Yes I agree that PS4 may sell more than Switch but ship less because PS4 already had more in channel and is expected to start declining. But from like PS4 selling 18M shipping 16M (sure now after revisions could be 18.5M sold and 18M shipped) and Switch selling 17M and shipping 20M would be quite the odd occurrence. 

Yeah, I agree here. 20M for Switch seems unlikely, after the first two quarters were a bit disappointing. PS4 could still outdo it's projection.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]