Worldwide Charts Yearly Total - October 13th

[Mnementh]

DonFerrari said:

Mnementh said:

These 16M and 20M projection are a) for the financial year (ending in March) and b) shipments. Thing about shipments is: early in the life of a console the shipments are bigger than the sales, after the peak sales are bigger than shipments. So going from these projection for the financial year, we still have to conclude big holidays for Ninty, but also big quarter in the new year (after Pokemon and Smash and with NSMBUD releasing). I think with all considered, that Nintendo closely missing it's projection while Sony outdoes it, the Switch will close in on PS4 in the holidays, os that overall years sales are close to each other and Switch does a lot better than PS4 in Q1 2019.

You don't need to preach to the choir... I know it is FY and shipment. Still if Nintendo ends up the calendar year much close to PS4 it will be hard to see why they would ship 2.5M more on the next quarter, after the bigger part of sales was made and just stuff the channel for bragging rights and then need to cut down shipment for the next 1 or 2 quarters and end up doing a much lower projection for the next year and look as already in decline.

Also shipments aren't fruit of solely manufacturer wish, they need stores to order and not only they can't overship forever they also really need to see the flow of units to really require.

Yeah, I have doubts myself Nintendo will reach their shipment goal. But even if PS4 edges out a win in sales in 2018 it could in the end mean shipments are higher for Switch. Because, as I said, pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it's the other way around. It does not have to do anything with channel stuffing though, retailers simply order more if they see increasing sales, while with plummeting sales they are more hesitant and reduce their stock.