Worldwide Charts Yearly Total - October 13th

[Mnementh]

Intrinsic said:

Mnementh said:

These 16M and 20M projection are a) for the financial year (ending in March) and b) shipments. Thing about shipments is: early in the life of a console the shipments are bigger than the sales, after the peak sales are bigger than shipments. So going from these projection for the financial year, we still have to conclude big holidays for Ninty, but also big quarter in the new year (after Pokemon and Smash and with NSMBUD releasing). I think with all considered, that Nintendo closely missing it's projection while Sony outdoes it, the Switch will close in on PS4 in the holidays, os that overall years sales are close to each other and Switch does a lot better than PS4 in Q1 2019.

I really don't understand the reasoning behind this whole Switch closing in and overall year sales being similar.

The Switch is currently 3M behind. When people talk about it closing in is it that they forget that the PS4 isn't going to just stop selling hardware during the holidays? 

So far the PS4 has outsold the NS globally every month of 2018. For the Switch to "close in" it has to at least win Nov-dec combined even if its by 100k and that will only dent the PS4s 3M lead by 100k. To be close to the PS4 it has to outsell the PS4 globally for those two months by around 2.5M - 3M. OUTSELL. 

I am sorry but I just don't see that happening. If by the end of Nov the PS4 also wins globally again then that lead increases making the NS have even more to do cme december.

So I am not trying to be funny, I am just really curious to know how anyone thinks the NS is gonna pull this feat off. What is the NS gonna do to outsell the PS4 by 3M units in nov and Dec alone?3 

Nope, you get me wrong. Yes, I assume the holidays are bigger for the Switch than the PS4, so the gap will reduce. But it is hard to close 3M. But even then sales of the Switch are lagging behind, shipments might be a lot closer, because as I said: pre-peak shipments are bigger than sales, post-peak it is the other way. PS4 is post it's peak, Switch is pre-peak. So while in sales PS4 might win 2018, shipments might be much closer or even reversed. And then for the FY we still have another quarter. As the talk was about the projections of Sony and Nintendo, I considered shipments, because the projections are for that.

To be precise: shipments of Switch could be 1 million above sales for the FY, while for PS4 shipments could be one million below sales. If you look in the past, in the first years shipments for PS4 also outdid the sales. It's a pretty consistent pattern for all consoles.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 27 November 2018