By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 39 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - September 24-30, 2018

Kerotan said:
TheBraveGallade said:
The only real reason it seems iffy that the switch will beat PS4 in Japan by this holiday is because of the early year MHW boost.

What does mhw not count or something? Should we just exclude the Splatoon effect on the Switch or the upcoming smash? 

Of course it shall be counted, it's just that the MHW boost is probably about as big as it's boost for the holiday season in Japan will be this year while the one the Switch will get will be massively bigger. It skews projections in that way and is the only reason why PS4 is relatively close to Switch sales this year so far, hence why it's pointed out by many. But nobody said to my memory to exclude the game



Around the Network

I feel like this is the calm before the storm for switch sales. An explosion is baout to happen soon



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Kerotan said:

What does mhw not count or something? Should we just exclude the Splatoon effect on the Switch or the upcoming smash? 

Of course it shall be counted, it's just that the MHW boost is probably about as big as it's boost for the holiday season in Japan will be this year while the one the Switch will get will be massively bigger. It skews projections in that way and is the only reason why PS4 is relatively close to Switch sales this year so far, hence why it's pointed out by many. But nobody said to my memory to exclude the game

It only skews projections if you ignore the fact switch gets 2 big games this holiday and traditionally a portable Nintendo device gets a much bigger holiday boost then a Sony home console. I don't think any informed poster really doesn't expect a big holiday difference. That doesn't take away from the fact the ps4 has done well for 10 months in 2018 against the switch. 



Kerotan said:
TheBraveGallade said:
The only real reason it seems iffy that the switch will beat PS4 in Japan by this holiday is because of the early year MHW boost.

What does mhw not count or something? Should we just exclude the Splatoon effect on the Switch or the upcoming smash? 

No, it just can't be denied, that the yearly numbers of the PS4 are inflated by the MHW boost and this boost cannot be used to judge the future sales. After half a year it looked because of this boost like PS4 and Switch would sell the same, even earlier like the PS4 would sell more this year than Switch. Both these views are wrong, and going forward to the end of the year you can't expect much more boosts like MHW (other games will have effects similar to the Spiderman boost), while we can expect some effect from Pokemon Let's Go and Smash. So no, you can't deny the sales of PS4 that MonHun created, but you can deny the effect on future sales and holiday sales.

Looking at the weekly data, we see pretty consistently Switch selling double the number the PS4 does. So it is reasonable to say over the holidays Switch will sell double than PS4. That even isn't including Pokemon and Smash, so you might also reasonably say Switch will even do more than doubling PS4 sales. If you use MonHun-boost to deny this possiblity, you are deluding yourself.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

outlawauron said:
PS4 had some good debuts, but I'm sad about Cold Steel 4. I was really hoping 100k+.

Also, fans of the more niche games haven't quite moved to Switch yet. Some not great debuts this week.

It did 100k in dengeki



Around the Network
NoCtiS_NoX said:
outlawauron said:
PS4 had some good debuts, but I'm sad about Cold Steel 4. I was really hoping 100k+.

Also, fans of the more niche games haven't quite moved to Switch yet. Some not great debuts this week.

It did 100k in dengeki



Mnementh said:
Kerotan said:

What does mhw not count or something? Should we just exclude the Splatoon effect on the Switch or the upcoming smash? 

No, it just can't be denied, that the yearly numbers of the PS4 are inflated by the MHW boost and this boost cannot be used to judge the future sales. After half a year it looked because of this boost like PS4 and Switch would sell the same, even earlier like the PS4 would sell more this year than Switch. Both these views are wrong, and going forward to the end of the year you can't expect much more boosts like MHW (other games will have effects similar to the Spiderman boost), while we can expect some effect from Pokemon Let's Go and Smash. So no, you can't deny the sales of PS4 that MonHun created, but you can deny the effect on future sales and holiday sales.

Looking at the weekly data, we see pretty consistently Switch selling double the number the PS4 does. So it is reasonable to say over the holidays Switch will sell double than PS4. That even isn't including Pokemon and Smash, so you might also reasonably say Switch will even do more than doubling PS4 sales. If you use MonHun-boost to deny this possiblity, you are deluding yourself.

But nobody in their right mind expects another mhw like boost and why would we estimate future sales off that. Why do i always read these double standards about ps4 in Japan. Will you be saying, oh switch only sold well this holiday because it had pokemon and smash? 

 

Breaking news, ps4 gets games that sell consoles. Some of these games sell a lot more then others. Every year the games are different and the hardware boosts are different. Same goes for next year. Will we be hearing "oh q1 sales were only good because of kh3"? Aside from this the only other factor that will determine sales is a price drop. 



Keybladewielder said:
NoCtiS_NoX said:

It did 100k in dengeki

Basing it on famitsu and Dengeki. MC is the odd one. If that happens I normally go on the middle ground of dengeki and famitsu so 100k it is.

and Falcom cited Famitsu no. with Sen no kiseki III before.



NoCtiS_NoX said:

Basing it on famitsu and Dengeki. MC is the odd one. If that happens I normally go on the middle ground of dengeki and famitsu so 100k it is.

Well, that's a fair assessment 

I guess in the end there was not much decline from Cold Steel III 



Kerotan said:
Mnementh said:

No, it just can't be denied, that the yearly numbers of the PS4 are inflated by the MHW boost and this boost cannot be used to judge the future sales. After half a year it looked because of this boost like PS4 and Switch would sell the same, even earlier like the PS4 would sell more this year than Switch. Both these views are wrong, and going forward to the end of the year you can't expect much more boosts like MHW (other games will have effects similar to the Spiderman boost), while we can expect some effect from Pokemon Let's Go and Smash. So no, you can't deny the sales of PS4 that MonHun created, but you can deny the effect on future sales and holiday sales.

Looking at the weekly data, we see pretty consistently Switch selling double the number the PS4 does. So it is reasonable to say over the holidays Switch will sell double than PS4. That even isn't including Pokemon and Smash, so you might also reasonably say Switch will even do more than doubling PS4 sales. If you use MonHun-boost to deny this possiblity, you are deluding yourself.

But nobody in their right mind expects another mhw like boost and why would we estimate future sales off that. Why do i always read these double standards about ps4 in Japan. Will you be saying, oh switch only sold well this holiday because it had pokemon and smash? 

 

Breaking news, ps4 gets games that sell consoles. Some of these games sell a lot more then others. Every year the games are different and the hardware boosts are different. Same goes for next year. Will we be hearing "oh q1 sales were only good because of kh3"? Aside from this the only other factor that will determine sales is a price drop. 

Someone actually explained in this thread about 60/40 split as we were talking about future sales, so it is not theoretical. Not a double standard either. Nobody here denied PS4 these sales, we were all only cautioning to extrapolate from that to the holiday sales. And we all are aware that games boost sales. That is why people talk about Smash and Pokemon and were talking about Spiderman. Because we expect these games to boost sales of the hardware. All I and others were talking about was, that we cannot use numbers including the MHW boost to extrapolate sales going forward. So you bark at the wrong tree.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]